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PREMAQ: A New Pre-Processor to CMAQ for Air Quality Forecasting

Tanya L. Otte*, George Pouliot*, and Jonathan E. Pleim* Atmospheric Modeling Division U.S. EPA ORD National Exposure Research Laboratory Research Triangle Park, NC *On assignment from NOAA Air Resources Laboratory. PREMAQ: A New Pre-Processor to CMAQ for Air Quality Forecasting.

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PREMAQ: A New Pre-Processor to CMAQ for Air Quality Forecasting

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  1. Tanya L. Otte*, George Pouliot*, and Jonathan E. Pleim* Atmospheric Modeling Division U.S. EPA ORD National Exposure Research Laboratory Research Triangle Park, NC *On assignment from NOAA Air Resources Laboratory. PREMAQ: A New Pre-Processor to CMAQ for Air Quality Forecasting Disclaimer: The research presented here was performed under the Memorandum of Understanding between the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the U.S. Department of Commerce’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and under agreement number DW13921548. Although it has been reviewed by EPA and NOAA and approved for publication, it does not necessarily reflect their views or policies.

  2. What is PREMAQ? • PREMAQ = “Preprocessor to CMAQ” • Part of National AQF System • Currently processes Eta Model output • Handles functionality of MCIP, parts of SMOKE, and parts of BCON in real time • Currently a serial code

  3. The Eta/CMAQ AQF System Meteorology model Eta-12 Vertical interpolation from eta to sigma Eta Post Horizontal interpolation to Lambert grid PRDGEN CMAQ-ready meteorology and emissions PREMAQ Chemistry model CMAQ AQF Post Gridded ozone files for users Verification Tools Performance feedback for users and developers

  4. Practical and Technical Differences Eta CMAQ 60 layers fewer (~22) layers step-mountain vert. terrain-following vert. continental northeast U.S. rotated lat-lon Lambert Conformal Arakawa-E Arakawa-C PTOP = 25 hPa PTOP = 100 hPa

  5. New in PREMAQ (vs. MCIP) • GRIB reader (2-D slices vs. full 3-D fields, Arakawa-A) • Grid geometry calculations • Different method of defining grids in GRIB • GRIB precision insufficient for lat/lon • Modifications to use different suite of variables • New dry deposition routine (EtaDry) • Met-dependent emissions & LBCs included

  6. true at 46°N Lambert Conformal projection central meridian 79.5°W Dx = 12 km Dy = 12 km center at 40.5°N, 79.5°W 142 grid cells true at 36°N Must use LLC lat-lon and projection info (including earth radius) to calculate center and distance from center to LLC! 166 grid cells I/O API Lower-Left Corner: -996000, -852000 [meters from center] GRIB Lower-Left Corner: 32.353°N, 89.994°W

  7. h u,v E j+1/2 j dx j-1/2 Eta i-1/2 i i+1/2 C v u,v,h A j+1 j+1 h u j j j-1 j-1 i-1 i i+1 i-1 i i+1 GRIB CMAQ dx dx Grid Gymnastics

  8. Changes at NCEP for AQF • Hourly post-processed Eta output • Hydrostatic s-P structure to 100 hPa • Additional forecast variables (PBL height, canopy conductance, plant canopy water) • New GRIB grids for AQF

  9. Forecast Domains (2004) 142 Northeast Domain 259 grid cells 166 East “3x” Domain 268 grid cells

  10. PREMAQ: Emission Processing • PREMAQ contains a subset of the SMOKE modules • PREMAQ contains Point Source and Biogenic Source processing from SMOKE • Area Sources computed in SMOKE outside of PREMAQ • Mobile Sources (nonlinear least squares approximation to SMOKE/Mobile6)

  11. PREMAQ (part of SMOKE) Laypoint Smkmerge Mrggrid Tmpbeis3

  12. Area and Biogenic Sources • Area Sources: 2001 NEI version 3 inventory used. (CAIR) No changes made to inventory. Computed outside of PREMAQ • Biogenic Sources: BEIS3.12 included directly into PREMAQ. • Canadian Inventory: 1995 used (no changes) • Mexico Inventory: BRAVO 1999 used for point sources (3x domain only)

  13. Mobile Sources • SMOKE/MOBILE6 not efficient for real-time forecasting • SMOKE/MOBILE6 used to create retrospective emissions for AQF grid • 1999 VMT data used for input to Mobile 6 • 2004 Vehicle Fleet used for input to Mobile 6

  14. Mobile Sources • Regression applied at each grid cell at each hour of the week for each species to create temperature/emission relationship • Mobile Source emissions calculated in real-time using this derived temperature/emission relationship

  15. NE Domain Mobile6 vs Regression 2003 retrospective SMOKE/MOBILE6 vs nonlinear approximation for NO (Nitric oxide) 8/4/03-9/29/03

  16. NE Domain Mobile6 vs Regression 2003 retrospective SMOKE/MOBILE6 vs. nonlinear approximation for ALD2 (Acetaldehyde and higher aldehydes) 8/4/03-9/29/03

  17. Point Sources • 2001 NEIv3 inventory (from CAIR); modified EGU NOx emissions using DOE’s Annual Energy Outlook (Jan 2004) • Calculated 2004/2001 NOx annual emission ratios on a regional basis (from DOE data) • Applied NOx factors to 2001 base inventory for 2003 (retrospective) and 2004

  18. EGU NOX adjustments 2004/2001 by region for Point Source Inventory 0.89 1.22 0.78 0.85 0.79 0.80 0.57 6.85 0.79 0.70 0.55 0.54 0.73 Source: Department of Energy Annual Energy Outlook http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/index.html

  19. AQF vs Reported NOx TVA Cumberland Plant

  20. AQF vs Reported NOx TVA Shawnee Plant

  21. PREMAQ Emissions Summary • Area/Biogenic No major changes made • Mobile Sources: Nonlinear regression used to create temperature/emissions relationship. • Point Sources: EGU projections to 2003 and 2004 seem to capture the emission changes from the larger sources but not from smaller sources

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