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About CIP (China Industrial Productivity Database) and Its Relation with the KLEMS

About CIP (China Industrial Productivity Database) and Its Relation with the KLEMS. Harry X. Wu IER, Hitotsubashi University, Tokyo The 1 st World KLEMS Conference, Harvard University, August 19-20, 2010. The CIP Plan. The current project is for the period 2010-12

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About CIP (China Industrial Productivity Database) and Its Relation with the KLEMS

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  1. About CIP (China Industrial Productivity Database) and Its Relation with the KLEMS Harry X. Wu IER, Hitotsubashi University, Tokyo The 1st World KLEMS Conference, Harvard University, August 19-20, 2010

  2. The CIP Plan • The current project is for the period 2010-12 • Objective: conceptually standard, consistent classification, and internationally compatible database for production function analysis of the Chinese economy at industry level

  3. The CIP Plan… • Institutional set up of the CIP • IER/Hitotsubashi-RIETI • Asian KLEMS • TCB China Center • NBS-TCB joint program

  4. The CIP Plan… • Features of the CIP database • Period to be covered: 1980-2010 • Industry classification: Based on CSIC2002, linked to CSIC1972, CSIC1985 and CSIC1994, reconcilable with the World KLEMS • Labor: numbers employed, adjusted for hours worked; adjusted for quality by the standard user cost approach; matching the adjusted input-output tables

  5. The CIP Plan… • Capital: decomposed into production structures, residential structures and equipment; deflated by re-constructed industry specific deflators; adjusted for quality by the standard user costs approach; matching the adjusted input-output tables • Output: based on input-output tables, adjusted for inconsistency with industry-level input accounts; deflated by industry-specific output deflators

  6. Links to my previous work featured by … • 39 (grouped to 24) industries of the industrial sector from 1949/52-2000/05, satisfying CSIC1994-CSIC2002 (Chart)

  7. Links to my previous work… • Employment series, reconstructed and conceptually adjusted to international standards in numbers, hours, compensation, and quality (Table) (Chart), • … in parallel to a tidied version of NBS series on numbers employed

  8. Links to my previous work… • Capital stock series, estimated with a novel approach in deriving flows, constructing initial stock, measuring prices and determining depreciation function

  9. Links to my previous work… • Output series, reconstructed to tackle problems in levels, prices and inconsistencies, in parallel to a tidied version of NBS series (Chart 2)

  10. Output problems?

  11. Key problems to be solved in CIP • Extending my approach on industries to services, construction and agriculture • Establishing employment and capital accounts that match, and logically coherent with, the national accounts

  12. Key problems to be solved in CIP… • Employment: serious inconsistency between annual statistics through the reporting system and population census (and its annual sample surveys) appeared in 1990, and further in 2002 onwards (Chart) • Capital: serious inconsistencies between fixed asset investment, fixed capital formation and actual increase in capital stock at industry level • Output: serious inconsistencies between industrial statistics and national accounts (sum up of part of enterprises is more than the national accounts in value added) (Chart)

  13. The structural break in employment series

  14. The national accounts are blown up…

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