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Providing Weather Forecast Uncertainty Information to the Public

Providing Weather Forecast Uncertainty Information to the Public. Julie Demuth, Rebecca Morss, & Jeff Lazo NCAR Societal Impacts Program. AMS Summer Community Meeting, Boulder, CO August 11, 2008. USWRP. The forecast high temperature for Boulder tomorrow is 88ºF.

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Providing Weather Forecast Uncertainty Information to the Public

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  1. Providing Weather Forecast Uncertainty Information to the Public Julie Demuth, Rebecca Morss, & Jeff Lazo NCAR Societal Impacts Program AMS Summer Community Meeting, Boulder, CO August 11, 2008 USWRP

  2. The forecast high temperature for Boulder tomorrow is 88ºF. What do you think the actual high temp will be? 88ºF 87-89ºF 86-90ºF 83-93ºF 78-98ºF

  3. Methodology • Nationwide controlled-access web survey of public • Uncertainty-related research questions: • How much confidence do people have in different types of weather forecasts? • Do people infer uncertainty into deterministic forecasts and, if so, how much? • How do people interpret a type of uncertainty forecast that is already commonly available and familiar: PoP? • To what extent do people prefer to receive forecasts that are deterministic versus those that express uncertainty? • What formats do people prefer for receiving forecast uncertainty information? Analysis based on N=1465 completed responses

  4. Suppose the forecast high temperature for tomorrow for your area is 75°F. What do you think the actual high temperature will be? 50% 40% 30% Percent of Respondents 20% 10% 0% 75°F 74-76°F 73-77°F 70-80°F 65-85°F Other (± 1°F) (± 2°F) (± 5°F) (± 10°F) N=1465

  5. Prefer Channel A (deterministic) Prefer Channel B (uncertainty) Like both channels Like neither channel I don't know 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Percent of Respondents Suppose you are watching the local evening news … • The Channel A weather forecaster says the high temperature will be 76°F tomorrow • The Channel B weather forecaster says the high temperature will be between 74°F and 78°F tomorrow. N=1465

  6. Broader implications • Interest in providing uncertainty information… • …but limited understanding of how to do this • Empirical knowledge about what weather forecast information people get, want, use, etc. is critical • Provide people information that they actually want and use rather than what we think they do (or should) want and use So much from social sciences (ideas, methodologies, theoretical frameworks, etc.) to integrate!

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