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ISSUES SURROUNDING ALASKA’S SENIORS a preliminary look

ISSUES SURROUNDING ALASKA’S SENIORS a preliminary look. Scott Goldsmith Institute of Social and Economic Research University of Alaska Anchorage ISER Brown Bag Lunch February 2, 2006 Anchorage, Alaska. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS. ALASKA COMMISSION ON AGING UNDERSTANDING ALASKA.

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ISSUES SURROUNDING ALASKA’S SENIORS a preliminary look

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  1. ISSUES SURROUNDING ALASKA’S SENIORSa preliminary look Scott Goldsmith Institute of Social and Economic Research University of Alaska Anchorage ISER Brown Bag Lunch February 2, 2006 Anchorage, Alaska

  2. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ALASKA COMMISSION ON AGING UNDERSTANDING ALASKA ALASKA SENIORS: Preliminary Look

  3. TOPICS • WHO ARE ALASKA’S SENIORS • PROJECTING THE SENIOR POPULATION • RETIREES AS AN ECONOMIC ENTERPRISE ALASKA SENIORS: Preliminary Look

  4. Smallest Percentage (5.7%), but Growing Fast (59.7%). ALASKA SENIORS: Preliminary Look

  5. ALASKA SENIORS: Preliminary Look

  6. LIVING ARRANGEMENTS OF SENIORS ALASKA SENIORS: Preliminary Look

  7. ALASKA SENIORS: Preliminary Look

  8. ALASKA SENIORS: Preliminary Look

  9. POVERTY MEASUREMENT ISSUES • COST OF LIVING • EQUIVALENCE SCALES • REQUIREMENTS • Health Care (MOOP) • RESOURCES • In-Kind Payments--Medicare • Home Ownership • Taxes ALASKA SENIORS: Preliminary Look

  10. ALASKA SENIORS: Preliminary Look

  11. ALASKA SENIORS: Preliminary Look

  12. ALASKA SENIORS: Preliminary Look

  13. ALASKA SENIORS: Preliminary Look

  14. WORKING SENIORS ALASKA SENIORS: Preliminary Look

  15. SENIOR PER CAPITA INCOME • All Seniors 65+ $29,568 • Earnings from Work $45,209 • No Earnings from Work $24,878 • No Social Security Income $27,628 • No Retirement Income $21,909 ALASKA SENIORS: Preliminary Look

  16. ALASKA SENIORS: Preliminary Look

  17. ALASKA SENIORS: Preliminary Look

  18. PROJECTING THE SENIOR POPULATION Growth in the number of Alaska seniors depends on: the current size of the older adult population (primarily baby boomers who in 2011 will range in age from 46 to 65), life expectancy at age 65, and migration patterns of older adults and the senior population. ALASKA SENIORS: Preliminary Look

  19. Alaska Baby Boomers will Drive Growth in Senior Population BB were born between 1946 and 1964. In 2000 they ranged in age from 36 to 54. ALASKA SENIORS: Preliminary

  20. The US Senior Population Depends on the Trend in Life Expectancy at 65 ALASKA SENIORS: Preliminary Look

  21. The Oldest Seniors Are Most Likely to Stay ALASKA SENIORS: Preliminary Look

  22. Senior Population Growth Rate Projected to be 4 Percent ALASKA SENIORS: Preliminary Look

  23. Projected Alaska Population Growth ALASKA SENIORS: Preliminary Look

  24. Projected Alaska Senior Growth ALASKA SENIORS: Preliminary Look

  25. 3 Different Alaska Senior Population Projections: 2030 (000) ISER US CENSUS ADOL* TOTAL 877 868 802 >65 114 127 138 65-74 62 64 77 75-84 37 45 47 85+ 15 18 14 SENIOR SHARE 13.0% 14.7% 17.2% * ADOL Projection is for 2029 ALASKA SENIORS: Preliminary Look

  26. Perspectives on the Senior Population: Today and Tomorrow US 2000 12.4% Florida (#1) 2000 17.6% Alaska (#50) 2000 5.7% US 2030 19.7% Florida (#1) 2030 27.1% Alaska (#49*) 2030 14.7% * Utah projected to be #50 ALASKA SENIORS: Preliminary Look

  27. Rapid Growth Causes the Senior Share of the Population to Jump ALASKA SENIORS: Preliminary Look

  28. The Senior Growth Rate Will be Especially Fast in 3 States ←Nevada, Alaska, and Arizona are the top 3 states ALASKA SENIORS: Preliminary Look

  29. RETIREES AS AN ECONOMIC ENTERPRISE The 52 thousand retired Alaska seniors, aged 60+, directly contributed $1.626 billion to the Alaska economy by their presence (measured in 2004), or $31 thousand per retiree. This is an estimate of the cash flow that would disappear from the state with the disappearance of Alaska seniors 60+ who are retired. ALASKA SENIORS: Preliminary Look

  30. ALASKA SENIORS: Preliminary Look

  31. ALASKA SENIORS: Preliminary Look

  32. INDUSTRY CHARACTERISTICS • Diverse Job Mix • Year Round Employment • Stable • Environmentally Benign • Local Spending • Compatibility • Non-Enclave • Stable Potential Tax Base • Economies of Scale • Demand on Scarce Resources ALASKA SENIORS: Preliminary Look

  33. STATE REVENUES AND EXPENDITURES The average adult citizen, and the average senior citizen, pays roughly $500 in taxes and fees into the state General Fund each year. In return the average adult receives about $5,000 in state services funded out of the General Fund. The average senior receives services, both those targeted toward seniors and those that benefit all residents, that cost $4,000. ALASKA SENIORS: Preliminary Look

  34. ISSUES SURROUNDING ALASKA’S SENIORSa preliminary look For additional information on this and other topics related to Alaska’s economy: www.alaskaneconomy.uaa.alaska.edu www.iser.uaa.alaska.edu

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