1 / 27

China’s real estate market in 2013

China’s real estate market in 2013. Jan. 2013 New York. Summary of key points. The real estate market hit the bottom in the first half of 2012… The recovery appears broadly based and is gathering pace…. Further policy response may be in pipeline Yet another bubble may be avoided….

philander-steve
Download Presentation

China’s real estate market in 2013

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. China’s real estate market in 2013 Jan. 2013 New York

  2. Summary of key points • The real estate market hit the bottom in the first half of 2012… • The recovery appears broadly based and is gathering pace…. • Further policy response may be in pipeline • Yet another bubble may be avoided…

  3. The market is recovering… • Sales volume goes up • Growth of operating cash inflow turns positive • Price index rebounds…

  4. Floor Space of Commodity Buildings Sold, YoY, % Source: Essence Securities, CEIC database

  5. Operating cash inflow of top 20 listed companies, YoY, % Source: Essence Securities, CEIC database

  6. Average Price of Sample Residential Bldgs, 100 cities, yuan/sq.m Source: Essence Securities, Wind database

  7. The recovery appears broadly based… • It spreads to office building and commercial building markets as well • It also extends to second and third-tier cities

  8. Floor Space of Commodity Buildings Sold, YoY,% Source: Essence Securities, CEIC database

  9. Sequential price change of residential Bldgs Source: Essence Securities, Wind database

  10. Fixed asset investment follows… • investment picks up • Floor space started stabilizes • Land sales • Cash balance of top companies improves

  11. Real Estate Investment, YoY,% Source: Essence Securities, CEIC database

  12. Real Estate Investment, YoY,% Source: Essence Securities, CEIC database

  13. Growth of operating cash outflow of top 20 companies Source: Essence Securities, Wind database

  14. Floor Space of Commodity Building Started, YoY,% Source: Essence Securities, CEIC database

  15. Floor Space of Commodity Building Started, YoY,% Source: Essence Securities, CEIC database

  16. Land Space Purchased by Real Estate Enterprises, YoY,% Source: Essence Securities, CEIC database

  17. Total Value of Land Purchased by Real Estate Enterprises, YoY,% Source: Essence Securities, CEIC database

  18. Net Operating Cash Flow & Net Financing Cash Flow of top 20 companies Source: Essence Securities, Wind database

  19. Net operating and financing cash flow as a share of sales volume for top 20 companies Source: Essence Securities, Wind database

  20. Another bubble may be unlikely Further policy response… • Appreciation pressure on exchange rate largely vanishes… • Depressed interest rate goes up as a result • Since 2011 rental yield on home appears stablise between 2-3%…

  21. Policy response • As residential market recovers gradually and prices rise again, political pressure to intervene is growing… • Property tax and stricter enforcement of current restrictive policy are expected

  22. Position for Forex Purchase, YoY, % Source: Essence Securities, PBOC

  23. 1-year RMB Expected Appreciation, % Source: Essence Securities, Wind database

  24. Treasury Bond Yield, 1 year &10 year, % Source: Essence Securities, CEIC database

  25. Lending Rate, % Source: Essence Securities; PBOC

  26. Rental Yield of Second-hand Residential Buildings,% Source: Essence Securities; Centaline

  27. Thanks！

More Related