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...2025. SVG. Characteristics of the Future Security Environment and Force Implications. Prepared for: Seabasing Symposium Presented by Col Tom Connally, USMC. 29 September 09. 1. Agenda. SVG Overview Future Security Environment Trends Patterns Future Conflict

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Svg

...2025

SVG

Characteristics of the Future Security Environment and Force Implications

Prepared for:

Seabasing Symposium

Presented by Col Tom Connally, USMC

29 September 09

1


Agenda
Agenda

SVG Overview

Future Security Environment

Trends

Patterns

Future Conflict

Future Force Implications

2


Mission and purpose of the svg
Mission and Purpose of the SVG

Mission

“Analyze future security environments; identify future operational threats, challenges, opportunities, and risks; and identify associated future force implications in order to inform Senior Marine Corps leadership and assist CMC to posture the Marine Corps for future success.”

Tasks

Provide strategic estimates and assessments of future security environments out to 2025 with a focus on a rolling time horizon at the end of the Defense Planning Projection (DPP)

Be the service facilitator and catalyst for strategic thinking on select issues.

Assist CMC and Senior leadership with strategy development, implementation, and associated strategic communications.

Start a “Strategic Dialogue” and Create an “Institutional Updraft”

11/17/2014

3


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Demographic Dichotomy

Urban Density and Sprawl

Growing resource scarcity and competition (energy, water, & food)

Uneven prosperity

Economic and global power shifts toward Asia; rising powers (China and India) and changing alliances; decline of “traditional” Europe

Struggle for sovereign legitimacy over identity

Character and conduct of warfare continues to blur - asymmetrically

Trends -The future establishes the requirement…

4


Trends
Trends….

Demographic Dichotomy

Graying of developed world

Youth bulges (15-29) in developing world

5

11/17/2014

5


Trends1
Trends….

Urban Density and Sprawl

Over half of global population is living in urban areas

1 in 6 in urban slums

Concentrated in the littoral with over 60% within 100NM of ocean

6

11/17/2014

6


Trends2
Trends…

Growing Resource Scarcity and Competition

Humanitarian crisis due to water/food scarcity

Intervention to secure uninterrupted resource supply

7

11/17/2014

7


Trends3
Trends…

Uneven Prosperity

Tech diffusion…

Increased Globalization and Interdependence

Global society vs. non-connected people

8

11/17/2014

8


Trends4
Trends…

Economic and global power shifts toward Asia

Economic/political patterns

Increased diplomatic clout

9

11/17/2014

9


Trends5
Trends…

Struggle for sovereign legitimacy over identity

Concept of sovereign nation-state challenged

Non-State actors

Cultural legitimacy over State

10

11/17/2014

10


Urbanization of the littorals
Urbanization of the Littorals

Global electronic activity plotted over a 30 day period circa 1999


Factors in instability conflict

Choke Points

Regions of Strategic Naval Maneuver

Piracy

Factors in Instability & Conflict

Arc of Instability

Top Ten Birth Rate Nation

2009-2014

2014-2025

Ungoverned Region

Water Stress


Potential areas of instability conflict 2009 2025

Choke Points

Regions of Strategic Naval Maneuver

Piracy

Potential Areas of Instability & Conflict: 2009-2025

Arc of Instability

Top Ten Birth Rate Nation

2009-2014

2014-2025

Ungoverned Region

13

Water Stress


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8

7

4

1

1

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

5

3

1

1

2014-2025

Where We Have Gone:Instability & Conflict: 1984-2009

13

9

32

9

2009-2014

Employment of amphibious forces


Trends6
Trends….

Character and conduct of warfare continues to blur

Growth of asymmetries

Police vs. Military Roles

Emergence of……..

15

11/17/2014

15


Emerging operational threats challenges
Emerging Operational Threats & Challenges

Future Security

Environment

Increasing complexity

in the Nature of Warfare

Hybrid Threats

Complex Environments

11/17/2014

16


Hybrid threat
Hybrid Threat

“Hybrid threats incorporate a full range of different modes of warfare including conventional capabilities, irregular tactics and formations, terrorist acts including indiscriminate violence and coercion, and criminal disorder.”

~ F.G. Hoffman CETO 2008


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State-like capabilities

PGMs

Long Range Missiles

Anti-ship Cruise Missiles

Anti-armor systems

UAVs

SIGINT

Selected tactics—

Highly trained in traditionaland irregular modes

Extensive preparations

Exploitation of political effects

Hezbollah: Prototype Hybrid

“Hezbollah’s combat cells were a hybrid of guerrillas and regular troops-- a form of opponent that U.S. forces are apt to encounter with increasing frequency.” Ralph Peters

18


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Complex Environment

Complex Terrain

Information War

War Amongst

The People


Paradigm shift in conflict spectrum

1990

Least Dangerous/

Lesser Included Capability

Most Dangerous/

Focus of Effort

Low Intensity Conflict

High Intensity Conflict

Previous Character of Conflict

Paradigm Shift in Conflict Spectrum

S

O

T

2025

Least Dangerous/

Not always a Lesser Included Capability

Most Dangerous/

Less Likely

Increasingly Lethal and Complex

S

O

Most Likely

T

Emerging Character of Conflict:merging and blurring forms of warfare


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Future Conflict

Hybrid Conflicts: Simultaneous, Fused, and Multi-modal.

“Conflicts are increasingly characterized by a hybrid blend of traditional and irregular tactics, decentralized planning and execution, and non-state actors, using both simple and sophisticated technologies in innovative ways.

~ A Cooperative Strategy for Maritime Security 2007


Dod viewpoint
DoD Viewpoint

“… it is common to define and divide the so-called "high end" from the "low end," …In reality, … the categories of warfare are blurring and do not fit into neat, tidy boxes.”

“We can expect to see more tools and tactics of destruction - from the sophisticated to the simple - being employed simultaneously in hybrid and more complex forms of warfare.”

“… these hybrid scenarios combine the "lethality of state conflict with the fanatical and protracted fervor of irregular warfare."

22


Future force characteristics
Future Force Characteristics

Simultaneous offensive, defensive and stability operations

360 degree posture on the battlefield – non-linear TTPs

More distributed operations with expanded C4 and operational reach considerations

Adapt capability and capacity mix from largely conventional to hybrid posture

Discriminate and proportional use of force will increasingly constrain operations

Increased training & education demand for “agile” multi-capable forces

“Persistent engagement” activities to prevent or reduce conflict and build enduring relationships

Respect and legitimacy vice “hearts & minds” with populations

Constant operations in the information & human terrain – local, US and international

23


Major magtf implications
Major MAGTF Implications

Decentralized MAGTF operations

MAGTF effectiveness in complex terrain

Complex and media-intensiveoperational environments

Communications skills

“We must train and educate Marines at all levels on the challenges

and opportunities presented by the Information Age so that it

becomes inherent in everything we do.” MCV&S 2025

24


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2025

Vision Of 2025 USMC

MEU

Focused in Med and West Africa

Indicates persistent presence

GFS

GFS

Indicates episodic location

CSG

TACAIR Integration

Persistent Fwd Naval Engagement

Integrated Combined Arms across ROMO

Forces and Dets for Naval Service

Expeditionary

Fast + Austere + Lethal

JFEO from the sea

Regionally Focused

Persistent Engagement without

Permanent Presence

3.0 MEU / ESG 3-4 SP MAGTF & 5 GFS

Complex Expeditionary ops in urban littorals

MEU

SP MAGTF

Leads Joint/MN ops enables interagency ops

Leads Joint / MNOps; Enables Interagency Ops

Okinawa

Hawaii

Guam

GFS

GFS

GFS

LCS

LPD-17

SP MAGTF

LPD-17

SP MAGTF

MEU

SP MAGTF

GFS

CSG

GFS

MEU

LPD-17

LCS

Increasing Tailored Forward Presence of

Multicapable MAGTFs

GFS: Global Fleet Station

CSG: Carrier Strike Group

MEU: Marine Expeditionary Unit

ESG: Expeditionary Strike Group

SP MAGTF : Special Purpose Marine Air Ground Task Force (MAGTF)

25



Questions visit the svg at www mccdc usmc mil or google strategic vision group
Questions? Visit the SVG at www.mccdc.usmc.milor Google “Strategic Vision Group”

Click on “Strategic Vision Group” tab for all source documents, briefs, information papers, etc…

27


Stress instability conflict 2009
Stress, Instability, & Conflict: 2009…

Choke points

Water Stress

Energy Demand

Urban Stress

Terrorism/Crime

Youth Bulge

Ungoverned

Nuclear

  • Ungoverned Spaces

  • Guatemala-Chiapas Border

  • Colombia-Venezuela Border

  • West Africa

  • East Africa

  • Arabian Peninsula

  • North Caucasus Region

  • Afghan-Pakistan Border

  • Sulawesi-Mindanao

28

28

28


Top oil reserve and production nations crisis and critical infrastructure protection

Choke Points

Regions of Strategic Naval Maneuver

Top Oil Reserve and Production Nations… Crisis and Critical Infrastructure Protection

Arc of Instability

Coastal and off-shore production and distribution facilities associated with the “top ten”

constitute Critical Littoral Infrastructure

Favorable Allied/Coalition Access/Basing Support

2009-2014

2014-2025

Off-shore Production facilities

Current Production

Identified Reserves

Undeveloped Fields


Potential instability conflict 2009 2025 economic crisis

Choke Points

Regions of Strategic Naval Maneuver

Potential Instability & Conflict: 2009-2025 …Economic Crisis

“The near-term security concern of the United States is the global Economic crisis and its geopolitical implications.”

“… it already looms as the most serious global economic and financial crisis in decades.”

~ Annual Threat Assessment of the Intelligence Community 12 Feb 2009

2009-2014

2014-2025

Economic Crisis

Could go either way


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