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Expert: Liri Muçaj. Proof. Assoc.

MS - Project “Identification and implementation of adaptation response measures in Drini-Mati River Delta (DRMD)” National Conference , Tirana , 3 - 4 November 2011. Climate Change Scenarios and its indicators. Expert: Liri Muçaj. Proof. Assoc. Content. Climate change scenarios

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Expert: Liri Muçaj. Proof. Assoc.

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  1. MS - Project “Identification and implementation of adaptation response measures in Drini-Mati River Delta (DRMD)” National Conference , Tirana , 3 - 4 November 2011 Climate Change Scenarios and its indicators Expert: Liri Muçaj. Proof. Assoc.

  2. Content Climate change scenarios Expected climate changes Climate change indicators

  3. Climate change scenarios Climate change scenarios are prepared by using the updated version of MAGICC/SCENGEN (version 5.3). To develop a mean pattern of future climate change, all GCM experiments are averaged and a composite pattern is constructed. For further impact analysis, the time horizons 2030, 2050, 2080 and 2100 are considered. It is to be noted that the time horizon means that the model is run for a period of 30 years,

  4. Climate change scenarios Generating using five model of (GCM) selected from 19 GCMs (available in MAGICC?SCENGEN), with their better estimation of current climate. The Global model MAGICC is run by using the scenarios from different SRES families (ar4 of IPCC); A1BAIM, A2ASF, B1IMA, B2MES, AIT-MES, A1F1-MI.

  5. Climate change scenariosTemperature • Annual temp. increase 1.8°C; 2.8°C and 3.2°C by 2050, 2080 and 2100 respectively • Summer temp. 2.7°C, 4.3°C, 5.1°C by 2050; 2080 and 2100. • Winter temp. 1.4°C, 2.0°C ,2.4°C by 2050; 2080 and 2100. • A1BAIM as the average scenario, A2ASF as the best, and A1F1MI as the worst scenario

  6. The expected climate changes in precipitation • The annual, decease -8.1% , -12.9% , -15.5% by 2050; 2080 and 2100 respectively. • Winter, decrease -8.0% , -11.9% , -13.7% by 2050; 2080 and 2100 • Summer, decrease 24.6%, 45.7% , 54.8% by 2050; 2080 and 2100

  7. Likely changes in sea level For the same reason as in PRESSURE case A1BAIM will be considered as average, A1FIMI as maximum and B1IMA as minimum scenarios.

  8. Climate change indicators It’s identified that the mean temperature values of last period 2001-2008 are near 2030 horizons • The expected number of days Tmax >35°C is interpolated to be: 4-5, 6-7, 8-9 and 10-11 days respectively for the horizons 2030, 2050, 2080, 2100

  9. Likely impacts of climate changesHeat wave and cooling degree days • The increase of temperature averagely up to 1.0°C in the period 2001-2008 explain the value 74 days with heat waves in this period. • About 80, 95, and 120 days with the heat wave are likely to be registered by the years 2050, 2080 and 2100 respectively. • Of course this raise of temperature leads to increase the values of cooling degree days from 360 up to 538 degree days. • the number of cooling degree days may reach about 550, 670, 840 and 930 by the years 2050, 2080 and 2010 respectively.

  10. Likely impacts of climate changesCold wave and heating degree days • The increase of temperature averagely up to 1.0°C in the period 2001-2008 leads to decrease number of days with cold waves from 48 days to 11 days • About 10 days with cold wave by 2030, 7 days by 2050 and 5 days for the 2080 may be expected and 0 days to the 2100 years. • On contrary the increase of temperature leads to decrease the values of heating degree days from 1450 for the period 1961-1990 up to 1400 degree days during the last period • about 1390, 1350, 1285 for heating degree-days by 2050, 2080 and 2100respectively,

  11. Heavy precipitation the cases of intensive rain (precipitation higher than the threshold) will expect to intensify. An increase of SPI3 (the cases of moderate, severe and extremely dry) of about 18 cases by 2030, of about 20, 22 and 24 cases by 2050, 2080 and 2100 respectively. Grown season and TCI The growing season is lengthened about 14 and 26 days by 2050 and 2100 related to 1990. TCI with projected scenarios of future climate conditions has been developed for the time horizons 2030,2050,2080,2100. Likely impacts of climate changes

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