CADDIS - Risk-based Prioritization and Diagnosing the Risk Drivers

1. CADDIS - Risk-based Prioritization and Diagnosing the Risk Drivers Susan Cormier, Ph.D. NCEA-Cincinnati and the whole CADDIS team

2. Cumulative Risks Cumulative Causes Assessments of Cumulative Causes, CADDIS, and a Case

3. Given this effect, what is the probable cause? Cause Given E what was C? • Given what we know of the effects, what is the likely exposure scenario or combination of exposures that caused these effects? Risk Given C what will E be? • Given what we know of the mixture or the individual components of the mixture, what are the probabilities and types of effects that may occur? Given this cause, what is the probable effect?

4. Different Questions Different Analyses Different Logic Cumulative Risks Cumulative Causes

5. Different Questions Different Analyses Different Logic Cumulative Risks Different Kinds of Assessments Cumulative Causes

6. The Basic EA Framework Condition Assessment Causal Assessments Outcome Assessment Predictive Assessments

7. The Basic EA Framework Problem Detection Condition Assessment Causal Assessments Outcome Assessment Predictive Assessments

8. The Basic EA Framework Problem Resolution Condition Assessment Causal Assessments Outcome Assessment Predictive Assessments

9. The Basic EA Framework Analysis from Effect to Cause Condition Assessment Causal Assessments Environmental Epidemiology Outcome Assessment Predictive Assessments

10. The Basic EA Framework Condition Assessment Causal Assessments Environmental Management Outcome Assessment Predictive Assessments Analysis from Cause to Effect

11. The Basic EA Framework Analysis from Effect to Cause Problem Detection Problem Resolution Condition Assessment Causal Assessments Environmental Epidemiology Environmental Management Outcome Assessment Predictive Assessments Analysis from Cause to Effect

12. Problem Detection Problem Resolution Causal Assessment Condition Assessment Risk Predictive Assessment Outcome Assessment Environmental Epidemiology Problem Resolution Criteria Setting, Risk Assessment Environmental Management

13. Problem Detection Problem Resolution Causal Assessment Condition Assessment Biological Predictive Assessment Outcome Assessment Environmental Epidemiology Meet Aquatic Life Standards Problem Resolution Environmental Management

14. Problem Detection Problem Resolution Causal Assessment Condition Assessment Source Cause Risk Outcome Management Predictive Assessment Outcome Assessment Endangered Species Environmental Epidemiology Problem Resolution Environmental Management

15. Problem Detection Problem Resolution Causal Assessment Condition Assessment Risk Outcome Management Predictive Assessment Outcome Assessment Environmental Epidemiology Hurricane Approaching Problem Resolution Environmental Management

16. CADDIS: EPA Website for Ecological Causal Assessment Analysis from Effect to Cause Problem Detection Problem Resolution Condition Assessment Causal Assessments Environmental Epidemiology Environmental Management Outcome Assessment Predictive Assessments Analysis from Cause to Effect

17. Ecoepidemiological assessments reflect cumulative causes and effects CADDIS is a guide to causal inference for specific cases Condition Assessment Causal Assessments www.epa.gov/caddis Outcome Assessment Predictive Assessments larvae adult

18. Home Page

20. Step-by Step Guide Introduction

21. Candidate Causes Also useful for Risk Assessment

22. Analyzing Data Also useful for Risk Assessment

23. Conceptual Models Also useful for Risk Assessment Databases

24. The Basic EA Framework Condition Assessment Causal Assessments Outcome Assessment Predictive Assessments

25. Stream Organisms mayfly stonefly caddisfly blackfly Degraded Stream Organisms pouch snail chironomid

27. Case Study - Willimantic River, CT • Clean Water Act • 305b report to Congress • TMDLs target Cu, Pb, Zn POTW

28. Roaring Brook, Willimantic River Watershed

29. Willimantic River Above POTW Below POTW

30. Define the Biological Impairment Not impaired Moderately impaired Impaired Compared to further upstream First appearance of downstream impairment

31. Willimantic River Study Area • Area of concern • Upstream impairment identified MR1 MR3 POTW

32. The Basic EA Framework Condition Assessment Causal Assessments Outcome Assessment Predictive Assessments

33. Types of Causation • Specific Causation • Causal: Did smoking cause my cancer • Risk: Will my smoking cause cancer • General Causation • Causal: Does smoking cause cancer • Risk: Can smoking cause cancer

34. Evidence from the Case Evidence from the Elsewhere Types of Causation Sources of Data for Evidence • Specific Causation • Did C cause E • Will C cause E • General Causation • Does C cause E • Can C cause E

35. Develop and Evaluate Evidence • Refutation • Diagnosis • Weight of evidence

36. 1.0 0.8 0.6 Probability of Observing <9 EPT Taxa 0.4 0.2 0.0 0 20 40 60 80 100 Percent Fines Risk Assessment Logistic Regression MAIA Probability of <9 EPT for %fines Risk of effect Cause/Effect Model Exposure Characterization

37. 1.0 0.8 0.6 Probability of Observing <9 EPT Taxa 0.4 0.2 0.0 0 20 40 60 80 100 Percent Fines Causal Assessment Logistic Regression MAIA Probability of <9 EPT for %fines Cause/Effect Model Exposure Characterization

38. Middle River

39. Furnace Brook

40. List of Candidate Causes • toxicityfrom metals, ammonia (NH3), or a complex mixture • high flowsremoval of organisms during • settled particles filling interstitial habitat • low dissolved oxygen • thermal stress • altered food resourcesfavoring filter feeders

41. Weight of evidence • Types of evidence • Adapted from Hill’s Considerations • Scoring • Source of information • Observation • Manipulation • General Knowledge • Quality of evidence • From the case or elsewhere • Specificity, Consistency and other qualities

42. Weighted Body of Evidence

43. Not impaired Moderately impaired Impaired

44. Unknown source After repairing broken pipe, Al, Cd, Cr, Pb, Fe, Zn decreased & more species observed Episodic exposure Sustained exposure Ammonia levels greater upstream Al, Fe, Pb, Ni, Zn Cr Cd & Cu Ammonia Mixture Cu & Cd benchmarks exceeded, but unimpaired sites also exceeded Cr benchmark exceeded, but form not likely hexavalent Cr Al, Fe, Pb, Ni, Zn did not exceed toxic benchmarks Ammonia did not exceed toxic levels Death or reproductive failure ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ Loss of invertebrate species

45. Not impaired Moderately impaired Impaired

46. Predictive Assessment Risk:Repairing broken effluent pipe and reducing metal release from POTW—no risk assessment, legally required remedies and no associated risks. Expectation: reduce toxic effects, returning this segment to condition similar to those upstream. Moderate effects from stressors associated unless old mill dams were removed. Risk: Removing dams: risk assessments of removal options necessary because unmanaged release of sediment would bury downstream reach and may contain toxic substances

47. Predictive Assessment • Management: • Repair pipe —None, responsible parties complied. • More stringent NPDES permit at POTW—none, responsible parties complied and monitoring of effluent continues. • Removal of dams—Due to concerns about cost, social acceptance, and uncertainty of causes, CT DEP chose to study effects of impervious surfaces and dams on biological condition throughout the state. Small dams could provide aesthetically attractive cascades. Consultation with public would be required for optimizing benefits of selective dam removal.

48. The Basic EA Framework Condition Assessment Causal Assessments Outcome Assessment Predictive Assessments

49. After fixing the illicit discharge

50. CADDIS is a guide to causal inference for specific cases www.epa.gov/caddis cormier.susan@epa.gov 513-569-7995