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IRAQ. Leading to war in 2002?. Ottoman Empire  British Control. Iraq: early 20 th Century. Iraq part of Ottoman Empire until 1919 League of Nations give Great Britain mandate to rule over Iraq (and Israel, Jordan, Kuwait) and to prepare it for independence

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  1. IRAQ Leading to war in 2002?

  2. Ottoman Empire British Control

  3. Iraq: early 20th Century • Iraq part of Ottoman Empire until 1919 • League of Nations give Great Britain mandate to rule over Iraq (and Israel, Jordan, Kuwait) and to prepare it for independence • Installed as leader: Faysal ibm Hussein of Hashemite family of Mecca (now Saudi Arabia). • This family revolted against Ottoman leaders, who were allied with Germany in WWI

  4. Faiysal’s Challenge:Maintaining cohesion in the Mid-20th Century • Holding together 3 disparate former Ottoman provinces: • North: Kurds • Central: Sunni/Shiite mixture • South: Predominately Shiite----linked to Shiite Iran • Despite independence in 1932, Faiysal family relied heavily on British military and support until • Overthrow of Faiysal/Brits in 1958 coup • Military govs from 1958-1968 • Coup by Ba’ath party

  5. Saddam Hussein: “The Great Organizer” • Poor childhood • Eventually became a Ba’th party thug, participated in 1959 assassination attempt against military ruler at that time, Kassem • Ba’th party: Arab nationalism, Pan-Arab unity • Exile in Cairo • Nasser was Arab nationalist

  6. Middle Eastern Geopolitics: Lesser of two evils for US • 1. US/Europe opposed to a Pan-Arab Union espoused by Ba’th, HOWEVER • 2. Evidence that Kassem was mildly communist • US also afraid of Communism • “Containment” • Saddam meets often with US Embassy in Cairo to discuss mutual concerns about Kassem • 1963: CIA helps in a coup attempt • Ba’th gives info on Russian military armaments in return • Saddam returns to become internal security operative

  7. Geopolitics, cont’d • 1967: Israel wins 6 day war and takes large Arab territory • Causes shake-up in Iraq: • weak leader beholden to Nasser • US collaborates with Ba’th to bring new leader to power • Iraq is developing oil and sulfur • US wants to shift Iragi allegiences to France and USSR and wants those resources • Saddam and US central in this coup: Saddam is NO. 2

  8. Turnabout • Saddam immediately kicks out pro-American elements and visits USSR • Wants economic support • Wants arms • 1972: treaty of friendship with USSR • Saddam builds his empire: • Starts out with one small department • Works 18 hour days/very good organizer • Eventually gains control of many depts, including security • sets up “Stalinist” regime

  9. And back again • 1980’s: Saddam builds up Iraq with the help of the West • Repatriation program for Arab scientists and engineers • Receives weapons from all western countries • Chemical warfare blueprints from US • Fighter bombers from UK and France • Motives of West: • Anti-communism in 1970’s • Anti-Khomeini (leader of Iranian revolution)in 1980’s

  10. Ayatollah Khomeini-Iran

  11. The Iran-Iraq War: a ‘no-win’ situation that cements Saddam’s ascendancy to power • 1980-1988 • a ‘no-win’ situation that cements Saddam’s ascendancy to power • Why? • Shatt al Arab-strategic locational politics • Grab for Pan Arab power • Camp David Accords (Carter) • Iranian Revolution • Shiite rise to power • Saddam buys arms for Iraq/Iran war from west through Jordan, Egypt and Saudi Arabia

  12. Shatt al Arab

  13. The Iran-Iraq War: a ‘no-win’ situation that cements Saddam’s ascendancy to power • 8 Years of skirmishes • 100,000’s of casualties on both sides • “2 obsessed and maniacal leaders throwing boys at each other” • Iraq: $80 billion in debt • $40 to Gulf states • $40 to the West • Privatization at the same time exacerbates economic inequalities and stress: inflation, unemployment, lack of basic goods • US could have stopped the war, but they wanted to weaken both sides

  14. “They’re out ta get me” • Deteriorating economy in Iraq • Fall of USSR • Saddam’s paranoiac frame of mind and conspiracy charges against the West. • Arab Cooperation Council: • Iraq, Jordan, Egypt, North Yemen • To Saudi Arabia: Non-aggression pact • Talks with Kuwait over borders and concession but not overtly threatening • Arrested and murdered scores of military officers • Kuwait starts pumping over quota and price of oil falls • $1/barrel=$1billion dollars loss for Iraq

  15. Persian Gulf War • August 1990: Saddam invades Kuwait • Sanctions start immediately • Fall 1990: Congress, UN resolutions and debates, negotiations fail • Jan. 16, 1991: first Apache helicopter attack • Feb. 27, 1991: Ceasefire • High tech, televised war • http://ftp.arl.mil/ftp/war-gif/ • Coalition of 1million from 30 countries • 48,000 strike sorties at 1200 targets • 148 Americans killed • 20,000 Iraqis killed • US wouldn’t fight alone-made others pay • $52 Billion and $2 Billion profit • Japan, Saudi Arabia, Germany, Kuwait

  16. Stage set for Postwar conflict • Uprising in South: US helped Saddam to quell • Uprising by Kurds: US acts ambivalently: support/denial • NO FLY ZONES • SANCTIONS on IRAQ

  17. No fly zones • Legal justification? • No UN resolution specific to no fly zones • “Humanitarian” or “moral” justification: • UN Resolution 688: • ... condemns the repression of the Iraqi civilian population in many parts of Iraq ... demands that Iraq ... immediately end this repression ... requests the Secretary-General to pursue his humanitarian efforts in Iraq ... appeals to all Member States ... to contribute to these humanitarian relief efforts” • Tactical Reconnaissance

  18. Sanctions in Iraq • August 6 1990: Sanctions imposed • Continued after ceasefire • 1995: Oil for Food Program • $1 Billion in oil sales every 90 days • Problems: • Delays (primarily by US) • Reparations to Gulf War corporate victims via UNCC • Kuwait Petroleum Co: $16 Billion—2x 1996-2000 food supports • May 2002: New Oil for Food program: everything allowed to pass except for items on a 160 page list

  19. The Kurds

  20. The Kurds and Kurdistan • 15-20 million people in Turkey, Iran, Iraq, Syria, pockets in Armenia • Sunni Moslems • NOT Arab • Persian language type • Numerous political parties

  21. The Kurds and Kurdistan • Collapse of Ottoman EmpireTreaty of Sevres • Attaturk promises allegiance to West • Kurds are abandoned • 1020’s/30’s revolt suppressed, UK power in Iraq • 1946: small Kurdish state in N. Iran • Supported by Soviets, who withdrew • 1970: self rule in N. Iraq: suppressed by Saddam • 1980 on: control of N. Iran • 1984: PKK, war against Turkey, 30,000 Kurds killed • US ignores them in Turkey

  22. Recent events • Desert Fox: 1998: “Let us see the weapons and destroy them” • 1999: More bombs on Iraq than Kosovo to enforce no fly zones • Sanctions evolution • 2001: Iraq: on the “Axis of Evil”

  23. Should we go to war with Iraq? • Issues: • Cost or war • Who will help pay this time? • Will oil prices spike? • Lives lost • Spread of war to other Persian Gulf states • Saddam use of biological weapons • Post war plans---how to change regime • Fragmentation? • Democratization?

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