Measuring Technical Progress: Evaluating Non-existent Scientific Instruments

1. Measuring Technical Progress: Evaluating Non-existent Scientific Instruments The Hyperspectral Environmental Suite Center for Innovation, University of Maryland Jerald Hage, Director Jonathon Mote, Assistant Research Scientist Aleia Clark, Assistant Researcher

2. Background • National Oceanic and Atmospheric Agency (NOAA) is planning to launch a new weather satellite in 2016 • The Hyperspectral Environmental Suite of instruments (HES) has been proposed as part of this project…it does not yet exist • Continual rejection from Congress • Center for Innovation was asked to provide advice on how to justify the instrument

3. The case of the Hyperspectral Sounder (HES) • What is a hyperspectral sounder? • GOES-R: Geostationary operational environmental satellite • This is what we use to collect atmospheric data that is used for weather prediction • The HES is a new suite of instruments designed to improve atmospheric data collection • Hyperspectral data v. multispectral data

4. GOES (18 channels) Advanced Sounder (3074 channels) What is Hyperspectral Sounding? • HES can image the entire hemisphere in one-sixth the time it takes for the current system. • HES increases the number spectral bands to over 3,000

5. Making a case for non-existent instruments • Congress demands data for the justification of new instruments such as the HES • $700 million for HES • GOES project already over $1 billion • How do you evaluate scientific instruments before they exist?

6. The need for a new approach • Not one, but two different sets of stakeholders with different interests • Executives at NOAA and the National Weather Service (NWS) • Internal divisions concerning merits of HES • Congress and OMB • Economic cost-benefit analysis indicate little economic benefit

7. Four recommendations • Build a justification for different goals for the HES • Provide justification for scientific community • Different justification for congress, avoiding economic arguments • Collect analogue data to support arguments

8. Reframing the Justification • Place HES in evolutionary context of improving weather prediction • Present HES as next self-evident step in progress of weather prediction • Present HES as a step towards understanding global warming • Co-opt those on both sides of the global warming debate by providing necessary data on carbon cycles

9. Reframing the Justification: The National Weather Service • NWS v. HES • NWS believes they are doing a good job • HES represents a threat • Present HES as fulfilling different needs • Support v. replacement • Avoids direct confrontation with NWS • Near/now-casting of extreme weather events • Short term, rapid climate changes

10. Nowcasting: HES as a new prediction tool • February 2009 tornado outbreak in Oklahoma • Strong supercells emerged at an unexpected time of the year The nowcasting system predicted this 6 hours sooner than NWS forecasts.

11. Justification for NOAA • Connect HES to stated goals of strategic plan • Goal of increasing tornado warning times is part of NOAA’s plan • Emphasize HES capabilities to meet stated goal • Finer spatial resolution • Increased tornado warning time

12. Justification for Congress and OMB • Cost-benefit analyses lack benefits • Costs of weather damage cannot be mitigated by forecasting but by new building codes • Focus on saving lives and avoiding injuries • Secondary economic argument • costly failure to predict winter storms • Example: Washington, DC. Closed for three days in Winter of 2000 due to unpredicted storm

13. Collecting Evidence • Where do you get the evidence? • Use available hyperspectral data to supplement arguments • AIRS: high-spectral resolution infrared instrument funded by NASA • Evidence from European hyperspectral efforts • German EnMap satellite • Also demonstrates how US has fallen behind

14. Thank you • For additional information or questions… • Jerry Hage. Director, Center for Innovation • Jhage@socy.umd.edu • Jonathon Mote. Senior Researcher • jmote@cba.siu.edu • Aleia Clark. Research Assistant • alclark@socy.umd.edu