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Fire Emissions Joint Forum. Technical Agenda for 2004 29 March, 2004. Fire EI Tasks. Task 1 Modeling Evaluation EI - Fire. 2002 actual Wildfire EI (10 acre)– by April 04 2002 actual Rx fire EI (using state data to emissions estimates (NIFC default)–April 04
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Fire Emissions Joint Forum Technical Agenda for 2004 29 March, 2004
Task 1Modeling Evaluation EI - Fire • 2002 actual Wildfire EI (10 acre)– by April 04 • 2002 actual Rx fire EI (using state data to emissions estimates (NIFC default)–April 04 • 2002 Ag fire EI (use 2018 BSM for now or none) • Used for model performance evaluation – ambient monitoring data compared to model results • Provides confidence in using model to characterize current and future years’ planning EIs • Used to test geographic source apportionment – effects at each Class I area, tribal reservation, or other geographic area • Provides modeling estimate of contributions from each upwind source jurisdiction
Task 1: Activity Data Collection(14 State Region) • Wildfire: FEJF assembled, Air Sciences imported, data organized (6 MM acres) • Rx Fire – Top Down Data Collection • Fed Rx Fire: DOI-1202 and FS-NIFMID data assembled and imported (216 M acres) • State Rx Data: AK, AZ, UT, WY received and in process • NM contacted. Other states to be contacted based on WRAP-EDMS and FEJF contacts • Noting Concerns: USDA-FS Rx complete? WFU to be in WF? Quality of required fields, etc.
Task 1: EI Processing • Scripts and procedures from 1996 and 2018 efforts being adapted for 2002 EI • New scripts being authored: Duplication flagging, Multi-day to daily record split, etc. • SMOKE file export to be based on 2018 with SCC updates
Task 1: Strawman and Outreach • Plume rise strawman in preliminary form • Natural anthropogenic strawman not initiated • Rangeland methodology not initiated • Agricultural burning outreach • Background/context prepared • PivotTable based tabular summaries of 2018 Ag Base emission inventory • Next step is technical review with ETT
Task 2Initial Modeling Apportionment EI - Fire • Start with Phase I 2002 actual EI(s) • 2002 actual Wildfire EI (further refined)- 8/04 • 2002 actual Rx fire EI - 8/04 (natural versus anthropogenic) • 2002 actual Ag fire EI (augmented by state review of 2018 or data from 2018 EI)- 8/04 • 2002 actual Private Rangeland fire EI -8/04 • QA/QC Peer Review Process • CERR Review Process • Range of Uncertainties/variability in Activity data • 2002 Fire EI data transfer to EDMS
Task 3Planning Baseline Period EI - Fire • Use at least 2000-04 data, or a longer period, must be representative of regional haze baseline period • Wildfire EI - 1/2005 • Rx fire EI - 1/2005 • Ag fire EI - 1/2005 • Private Rangeland fire EI – 1/2005 • To construct these EIs: • Consult with states & tribes on smoke management programs • Other considerations?
Task 4Planning 2018 Projection Year EI - Fire • Stay with Task 3 Baseline Planning EI format for consistency • Base projections on predictable variables, may only provide ranges or scenarios of emissions • Wildfire EI - 5/2005 • Rx fire EI - 5/2005 • Ag fire EI - 5/2005 • Private Rangeland fire EI – 5/2005 • To construct these EIs: • Consult with states & tribes on smoke management programs • Other considerations?
Other FEJF Activities • Sensitivity Analysis – work begun @ RMC • De Minimus – Final Workplan in play • Fire Emissions Technical Workshop – National/All RPO and EPA • 308 Planning Workshop – WRAP Focus • Alternatives to Wildland Burning Report • Emission Reduction Techniques – Phase 1 Report under review, Phase II late 2004.
