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Fire Emissions Joint Forum. 2004 Technical Agenda January 26, 2004. Fire EI Tasks (task notes on following slides). Task 1 Modeling Evaluation EI - Fire. 2002 actual Wildfire EI (10 acre)– by April 04
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Fire Emissions Joint Forum 2004 Technical Agenda January 26, 2004
Task 1Modeling Evaluation EI - Fire • 2002 actual Wildfire EI (10 acre)– by April 04 • 2002 actual Rx fire EI (using state electronic data to supplement emissions estimates (NIFC default)–April 04 • 2002 Ag fire EI (use 2018 BSM for now or none) • Used for model performance evaluation – ambient monitoring data compared to model results • Provides confidence in using model to characterize current and future years’ planning EIs • Used to test geographic source apportionment – effects at each Class I area, tribal reservation, or other geographic area • Provides modeling estimate of contributions from each upwind source jurisdiction
Task 2Initial Modeling Apportionment EI - Fire • Start with Phase I 2002 actual EI(s) • 2002 actual Wildfire EI (further refined)- 8/04 • 2002 actual Rx fire EI - 8/04 (split natural versus anthropogenic) • 2002 actual Ag fire EI (augmented by state review of 2018 or data from 2018 EI)- 8/04 • 2002 actual Private Rangeland fire EI (work starting in task 1)-8/04 • For all 3 types of fire: • Used to complete Strategic Plan 2004 geographic source apportionment for TOC Attribution of Haze project • Effects at each Class I area, tribal reservation, or other geographic area • Modeling analysis of natural versus anthropogenic
Task 3Planning Baseline Period EI - Fire • Use at least 2000-04 data, could be longer period, must be representative of regional haze baseline period • Wildfire EI - 1/2005 • Rx fire EI - 1/2005 • Ag fire EI - 1/2005 • Private Rangeland fire EI – 1/2005 • To construct these EIs: • Consult with states & tribes on smoke management programs • Other considerations?
Task 4Planning 2018 Projection Year EI - Fire • Stay with Task 3 Baseline Planning EI format for consistency • Base projections on predictable variables, may only provide ranges or scenarios of emissions • Wildfire EI - 5/2005 • Rx fire EI - 5/2005 • Ag fire EI - 5/2005 • Private Rangeland fire EI – 5/2005 • To construct these EIs: • Consult with states & tribes on smoke management programs • Other considerations?
Other FEJF Activities • Sensitivity Analysis – work begun @ RMC • De Minimus – Final Workplan in play • Fire Emissions Technical Workshop – National/All RPO and EPA • 308 Planning Workshop – WRAP Focus • Alternatives to Wildland Burning Report • Emission Reduction Techniques – Phase 1 Report under review, Phase II late 2004.
