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Counterterrorism’s New Tool: ‘ Metanetwork ’ Analysis

John Bohannon. Counterterrorism’s New Tool: ‘ Metanetwork ’ Analysis. Presenter: Mustafa Kilavuz. Acts in Baghdad. Shyam Sankar proposes looking at the geospatial distribution of significant acts on the map of Baghdad.

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Counterterrorism’s New Tool: ‘ Metanetwork ’ Analysis

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  1. John Bohannon Counterterrorism’s New Tool:‘Metanetwork’ Analysis Presenter: Mustafa Kilavuz

  2. Acts in Baghdad • ShyamSankar proposes looking at the geospatial distribution of significant acts on the map of Baghdad. • They investigate the bars on the map indicating the daily acts in April and May 2008 such as: • Suicide bombings • Mortar attacks • Improvised explosive device (IED)detonations

  3. Sadr City District • As they go through the timeline they find dense events in Sadr City District. • The attacks seem to be correlated over time and space with the construction of this security wall, forming a line. • This information is important to predict the insurgents’ next moves.

  4. Terrorist Network • Sinensky works on a social network with the Naval Postgraduate School that shows the people connected to Noordin Mohammed Top who is Southeast Asia’s most wanted terrorist. • The graph represents the suspects’ known communications and relationships, as well as their known involvement with terrorist plots.

  5. Conspiracy Map

  6. Analysis Techniques • Sinensky applies betweenness, centrality, and eigenvector centrality and they see Noordin is the first in the list. • How about the second and the third names? • After September 11 attacks social networks were used more in the warfare analysis. • Some in the U.S. military worries about they put too much faith in it. • One former U.S. official claims that they led to unethical practices.

  7. Side Story Investigating Networks:The Dark Side

  8. Tangled Maps • It emerged that the 9/11 attacks were not work of a government but a team of international terrorists: 19 hijackers and dozens of supporters (funding, logistic). • The intelligence community was desperate for any help they could get to prevent another attack. • Valdis Krebs made a social network from the information on the news: meetings, residences, and financial transections.

  9. Krebs’ Analysis • Mohammed Atta scored highest on • Degrees: Intensity of his activity • Closeness: Ability to access others • Betweenness: Control over the flow in the network • He was the ringleader and a member of Al-Qaeda

  10. Expanding the network • By 2003, U.S. defense officials expanded the network by including insurgents in Afghanistan and Iraq. • The results disappointed Krebs. It didn’t really work to catch the bad guys.

  11. Problems • They were good at modeling a static network but this network was highly dynamic. When someone dies or caught, someone else replaced him with own relations. • Noise increased as the graph grew. • Mathematical analysis was not enough by itself. Social analysis were needed. • Pizza delivery guy problem

  12. Could 7/7 Have Been Prevented? • After bombing in London on July 7, 2005, a report is issued called “Could 7/7 Have Been Prevented?” • Using network analysis, the researchers traced the relations between plotters. • The result: “A hairball”

  13. Dynamic Metanetwork Analysis • Ian McCulloh, a U.S. Army major, proposed a technique called “dynamic metanetwork analysis” which can adapt the change over time. • Instead of having a “who” network, different layers storing information about when, what, where and why are needed. • Carley, McCulloh’s advisor from the university, developed a computer program (ORA) that finds people who are a threat by using both mathematical and social metrics.

  14. Network Extracted From Videos • McCulloh and Carleyinvestigated 1500 videos made by insurgents in Iraq. • As of March 2006, 3 of 4 U.S. soldier deaths were on tapes. • They extracted a big network out of these tapes which is kept as secret. • The actions taken according to this network reduced the sniper activities 70% and also reduced the IED deaths.

  15. IED Attack

  16. Conclusion • Marc Sageman, a forensic psychiatrist, doesn’t believe that the network works. According to him, there could be many reasons that the numbers drop. • Carley just counters that Sageman doesn’t get the methods. • The army established a network science center in Aberdeen, Maryland 2 years ago. • This year U.S. Army Research Lab is committing $162 million to research on “network-centric warfare”. • Carley is one of the academics applying for funding.

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