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WEATHER OUTLOOK 2009 PRESENTED BY World Weather, Inc. . WEBSITE -- http://www.worldweather.cc Telephone: 913-383-1161 EMAIL ------ worldweather@bizkc.rr.com Fax Number: 913-383-1198.

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slide1

WEATHER OUTLOOK 2009

PRESENTED BY

World Weather, Inc.

WEBSITE --http://www.worldweather.ccTelephone: 913-383-1161

EMAIL ------ worldweather@bizkc.rr.comFax Number: 913-383-1198

slide2

The Most Recent 30 Days Of Weather Has Included Abundant Precipitation From Eastern Kansas And Missouri To Wisconsin And Michigan. The Wet Weather Has Delayed Planting Progress And Wet Weather That Occurred Additionally Over This Same Region Since April 30 Has Further Saturated The Ground And Induced Greater Flooding. The Wet Weather Bias Is Further South Than Expected Because Of Persistent Cool Weather And These Trends May Be Around For Another Few Weeks. There Will Be Some Brief Periods Of Improved Weather In Which Planting Can Proceed.

Data From

NWS

slide3

Despite Recent Flooding In A Part Of The U.S. Delta, The Area Has Not Had As Much Rain As One Might Imagine. Rainfall Has Actually Been Below Average In The Past 30 Days. That Contrasts With Southern Georgia, Northern Florida And Southeastern Alabama Where Rainfall Has Been Well Above Average Limiting Some Fieldwork And Warranting Drier Weather. More Recent Weather Has Provided Much Drier Conditions To The Southeastern States And The Excess Moisture Of The Past Is Gone.

Data From

NWS

slide4

Drought In South Texas Is Very Serious And Acreage Was Notably Reduced In The Region Minimizing The Impact Of On-going Dryness. Moisture Deficits From The Past Two Months Are Not Very Impressive In West Texas And A Single Storm Could Fix The Drier Bias Instantly. However, 6-Month Moisture Deficits In West Texas Are More Significant Leaving Subsoil Moisture And Water Tables Below Average. Timely Rain Is All That Most Producers Would Like To Have. The Texas Blacklands And Upper Coast Have Been Wetter Than Usual.

slide7

KEY INFLUENCES ON 2008-09 WEATHER

  • SUNSPOTS
  • ENSO – La Nina/El Nino
  • PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION (PDO)
  • LONG TERM CYCLES
slide8

SUNSPOT CYCLE SINCE 1700s

Sun Spot Numbers

Sun Spot Numbers

slide10

El Nino

Neutral PDO

Neutral AMO

Neg. QBO

El Nino

Positive PDO

Neutral AMO

El Nino

Positive PDO

Neutral AMO

Neg. To Pos. QBO

La Nina

Negative PDO

Neutral AMO

Summer Precipitation In Years Following A Sunspot Minimum Have Tended To Be Wet In Illinois And Missouri While Normal Rainfall Occurs Often In South Dakota And Minnesota.

Neutral ENSO

Negative PDO

Positive AMO

slide11

El Nino

Neutral PDO

Neutral AMO

Neg. QBO

El Nino

Positive PDO

Neutral AMO

El Nino

Positive PDO

Neutral AMO

Neg. To Pos. QBO

La Nina

Negative PDO

Neutral AMO

One Of The Largest And Strongest Correlations For Years Following A Sunspot Minimum Is A Tendency For Cool Summers In The Northern Half Of The Nation.

Neutral ENSO

Negative PDO

Positive AMO

slide12

KEY INFLUENCES ON 2008-09 WEATHER

  • SUNSPOTS
  • ENSO – La Nina/El Nino
  • PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION (PDO)
  • LONG TERM CYCLES
slide13

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES

7-Day Average Centered on April 22, 2009

NOAA

Sea Surface Temperatures In The Eastern Pacific Ocean Have Been Warming Back To A More Normal Range After Two Years Of Coolness.

slide14

upwelling

Eastward Moving Warm Water In The Subsurface Equatorial Pacific Ocean May Lead To El Nino Like Conditions Later This Summer. Once A Kelvin Wave Passes Scientists Will Watch Water Temperatures For Signs Of Additional Warming. If The Trend Continues The Potential For El Nino Will Rise Greatly.

slide15

El Nino

La Nina

Other Years In Which La Nina Was Weakening Led To Weak El Nino Conditions By Late In The Year With Only 1974-75 Reverting Back To La Nina Conditions. There Are Some Forecasters Who Believe The Parallel With 1974-75 Is Stronger Than With Other Patterns, But Changing Sea Surface Temperatures Suggest It Will Be Hard (Not Impossible) For La Nina To Return This Year.

slide16

FORECAST PROBLEM NUMBER ONE

Is El Nino Coming Or Will We Move Into Neutral ENSO Conditions For The Balance Of This Year.

El Nino

La Nina

slide17

NOAA’s CFS Model Accurately Predicted The Return Of La Nina This Winter And Now It Is Suggesting Neutral ENSO The Remainder Of Spring And Weak El Nino Conditions Late This Year.

slide18

JULY - SEPTEMBER EL NINO PRECIPITATION BIAS

Below Normal Above Normal

Cotton Areas That Might Be Impacted By El Nino Include India, China, Central Africa, Australia South America And Parts Of The United States. The Impacts Would Be Highly Variable.

slide19

TEMPERATURE

TRENDS FOR NEUTRAL ENSOYEARS

COOL

COOL

COOL

WARM

WARM

WARM

W

WARM

WARM

WARM

W

The Odds Favor Neutral ENSO Conditions This Spring And Possibly Early This Summer. The Anomalies Shown Above Are Typical Of ENSO Neutral Summers. Remember ENSO Is Not The Only Factor Controlling Summer Weather. A Close Watch On The Sunspot Bias, PDO And AMO Is Also Warranted.

slide20

PRECIPITATION

TRENDS FOR NEUTRAL ENSOYEARS

D

W

W

W

W

W

W

D

W

WET

WET

WET

DRY

WET

D

DRY

DRY

W

DRY

DRY

D

D

D

W

D

DRY

W

W

DRY

WET

WET

W

D

DRY

W

D

W

W

W

The Odds Favor Neutral ENSO Conditions This Spring And Possibly Early This Summer. The Anomalies Shown Above Are Typical Of ENSO Neutral Springs. Remember ENSO Is Not The Only Factor Controlling Summer Weather. A Close Watch On The Sunspot Bias, PDO And AMO Is Also Warranted.

slide21

PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE

TRENDS FOR EL NINO YEARS

COOL

COOL

COOL

W

C

WARM

weak event

weak event

weak event

WET

WET

WET

WET

DRY

DRY

WET

WET

WET

DRY

WET

DRY

WET

WET

WET

weak event

weak event

weak event

“If” El Nino Develops Later This Year These Are The Anomalies That Would Likely Result. The Odds Of El Nino Conditions Occurring Before July Are Very Low. Remember El Nino Is Interacting With Other Atmospheric Patterns Which Leaves Room For Some Deviations From Trend.

slide22

PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE

TRENDS FOR EL NINO YEARS

W

W

C

C

WARM

W

weak event

weak event

weak event

DRY

DRY

WET

DRY

DRY

W

DRY

WET

WET

DRY

DRY

WET

WET

WET

DRY

DRY

weak event

weak event

weak event

“If”El Nino Evolves This Year It Is Most Likely To Occur In Late Summer Or Autumn. These Are The Anomalies That Might Associate With Such An Event. Remember El Nino Is Interacting With Other Atmospheric Patterns Which Leaves Room For Some Deviations From Trend.

slide23

KEY INFLUENCES ON 2008-09 WEATHER

  • SUNSPOTS
  • ENSO – La Nina/EL Nino
  • PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION (PDO)
  • LONG TERM CYCLES
slide24

PHASES OF PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION (PDO)

Positive

Or

Warm

Phase

Negative

Or

Cool

Phase

Sea

Surface

Temperatures

Sea

Surface

Temperatures

Winter Season

Winter Season

slide25

Warm

Negative PDO

Warm

COOL

Warm

Warm

COOL

COOL

Warm

Warm

Warm

Warm

Warm

Neutral ENSO

slide26

KEY INFLUENCES ON 2008-09 WEATHER

  • SUNSPOTS
  • ENSO – La Nina
  • PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION (PDO)
  • LONG TERM CYCLES
slide27

PALMER DROUGHT INDEX

AUGUST 2008

AUGUST 2007

slide29

Palmer Drought Index

April 25, 2009

Today’s Palmer Drought

Index Is Most Similar To

That Of 1973 And Less Like That of 1991. The Moisture Abundance Is Unlike Any Of The Years That Preceded Midwest Dryness Implying That Dryness in 2009 May Be A Difficult Accomplishment.

slide30

TOO

WET?

slide32

Last Week

Coolest & Driest

East

Wet And Cool Conditions Are Expected In Many Areas Over The Next 30 Days With The Wettest Conditions Shifting North In June. The Northern Plains Will Experience Some Improving Weather This Month.

slide33

Weather In The Midwest So Far This Spring Has Remained Wetter Further South Than Originally Predicted. The Change Resulted From Stronger And More Persistent Cold Air Surges And A Persistence Of The Feature Will Perpetuate Some Planting Delays Deep Into May. Areas Shown In Yellow On The Map Above Will Encounter Some Additional Periodic Planting Delay In May, But Will Likely See Improved Field Progress Potential Late In The Month And On Into June. The Northern Plains Will See Some Periods Of Improving Weather In May, But Will Likely Turn Wet Again In June.

slide34

Neutral ENSO Conditions Will Prevail For A While And There Is Some Potential For El Nino Like Conditions To Evolve Later In The Year. That Means Naturally Prevailing Weather Patterns Will Take Control Of The Nation. Those Prevailing Patterns Include A Wet Weather Bias In The Northern Plains And Timely Rainfall In Many Other Areas. The Restricted Early Summer Rainfall In The Central Plains And Lower Midwest Will Not Be Nearly As Threatening As Suggested Because Of Timely Rainfall And An Absence Of Persistent Hot Weather. Late Summer Will Trend Cooler And That Will Generate More Routine Showers And Thunderstorms For Much Of The Nation’s Crop Region. The End Result Will Be Mostly Fine Summer Crop Development With The Possible Exception Of The Cooler Than Usual Conditions.

slide35

Some Of The Features That Will Stand Out This Summer Include The Potential For Cooler Than Usual Temperatures In Many Northern And Central Crop Areas And The Timeliness Of Showers And Thunderstorms. A Reduction In Tropical Cyclones Impacting The Southeastern States Is Now Being Suggested Due To The Possible Development Of El Nino Late In The Year.

slide36

Florida, Alabama, Georgia And The Carolinas May Be More Frequently Influenced By Tropical Cyclone Activity In 2009 Than Other U.S. Coastal States. Texas May Also Be Impacted, But To A Lesser Degree Of Significance. Late August Through Mid-September Will Be Stormiest. Tropical Cyclone Numbers May Be Reduced If El Nino Evolves

slide38

The Latest Vegetative Health Index Continues To Favorable Crop Conditions Except in Shanxi Where There Is A Little Plant Moisture Stress Under Way.

Rain Has Been Abundant In Eastern China’s Crop Areas The Past Two Months. Soil Conditions Are Rated Mostly Favorable, Although There Are Some Dryness Issues In A Small Part Of Shanxi And Hebei. The Northeastern Provinces Have Been Especially Wetter Than Usual Recently Favoring Summer Crop Production Potentials.

slide39

Soil Conditions Are Not Far From Normal In Eastern China’s Main Agricultural Areas. However, There Is Some Dryness, Especially In The Southeastern Provinces, Which Is Typical Of La Nina Years. Dryness In The Korean Peninsula And Neighboring Areas Of Northeastern China Should Not Last Long In The Spring, But May Return During The Summer.

slide40

China’s Late Spring Is Expected To Be A Little Cooler Than Usual In The Northeastern Corner Of The Nation While Warmer Than Usual In Some Northwestern Crop Areas East Of Tibet. Rainfall Will Be Less Than Usual In East-Central Parts Of The Nation, But There Will Still Be Timely Rainfall To Support Crops.

Summer 2009 Will Be Seasonably Moist Over Eastern Portions Of The Nation, But Some Western Crop Areas Will Be A Little Drier Than Usual. There May Also Be Some Pockets Of Dryness In The Far Northeast. Temperatures May Be A Little Cool In East-Central Parts Of The Nation.

slide41

India’s Monsoon Rainfall Will Be A Function Of ENSO. El Nino Conditions Are Possible Late This Summer And If They Do Emerge, Late Season Rainfall In India Will Decrease Below Average. The Start Of The Rainy Season Is Expected To Be Just Fine And Crops Should Perform Relatively Well. The Best Rain Amounts And Coverage Will Occur If El Nino Fails To Evolve.

slide42

VEGEGATIVE HEALTH

INDEX COMPARISON

TO LAST YEAR

April 26, 2009

Big Changes In Cotton Field Conditions Have Occurred This Year Over Those Of Last Year. Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan And Turkey Are All Experiencing Better Rainfall And Soil Moisture This Year Over That Of Last Year. The Implication Of This Is Better Crop Development Potential, Although Planting Has Likely Been Slowed By The Wet And Mild Bias.

April 27, 2008

NOAA

NOAA

slide43

April 26, 2009

A Large Part Of Europe And The Western CIS Grain And Oilseed Production Region Is Experiencing A Decline In Early Spring Weather Conditions Relative To That Of Last Year At This Time. However, Changes Are Expected In Many Areas Over The Next Few Weeks. Notice The Big Improvement In Crop Conditions For Turkey, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan And Neighboring Areas.

April 26, 2009

CHANGE IN

VEGETATIVE

HEALTH INDEX

FROM LAST

YEAR

slide44

CHANGE IN

VEGETATIVE

HEALTH

INDEX

FROM LAST

YEAR

Bahia

Mato

Grosso

Africa “Franc Zone”

April 26, 2009

From

NOAA

April 26, 2009

Central African Republic Will Need Better Rain This Season As Will Parts Of Texas. Dryness In

Argentina, Paraguay And Center

South Brazil Will Favor Harvest Progress. Rain In Bahia May Hurt Fiber Quality And Mato Grosso Is Starting To Dry Down.

April 26, 2009

slide45

WEATHER OUTLOOK 2009

PRESENTED BY

World Weather, Inc.

WEBSITE --http://www.worldweather.ccTelephone: 913-383-1161

EMAIL ------ worldweather@bizkc.rr.comFax Number: 913-383-1198