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Explore the economic impact of intermodality on air travel through detailed cost analysis, modal shifts, and high-speed rail connections to airports. Learn about modal transfers, catchment analysis, and the potential of HSR to alleviate airport congestion. Gain insights into the synergy between air and rail travel, including case studies from Europe and Japan.
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Intermodality and the Economy: Seamless Transport Stephen Perkins ECAC Forum 14 December 2011
The air passenger end-to-end journey Transfer Source: Adapted from UK Department for Transport, Improving the Air Passenger Experience, 2009
Generalised costs and access to airports Generalised Costs • Cash cost • Marginal cost of car per person • Parking • Return trip for kiss and fly • Bus/rail/metro fare • Taxi fare per person • Time cost • Reliability (buffer time cost) • Comparative comfort/practicality • Baggage • Crowding • Transfers • stairs/distance for transfers on foot
UK catchment analysis: two-hour drive-times • 2 hour drive catchments • Mean drive time 1.0 hour to nearest alternative • Potentially very competitive structure • Similar overlap of catchments in Japan, Italy ..... • Hubs usually different Source: David Starkie, ITF Roundtable 145
Mode shares for passenger access to Heathrow (%) Source: Kouwenhoven, ITF Roundtable 145
Fraport’s high speed rail connections • Koln 57 min • Bonn 40 min • Stuttgart 73 min • 174 long distance trains a day • AIRail integrated ticketing and bag drop Lufthansa-DB-Fraport • Rail&Fly rail discounts for 90 airlines for destinations all over Germany High-speed lines 300 km/h High-speed lines 250 km/h Upgraded lines 200 km/h Sources: Wikipedia; Fraport.
Can HSR relieve congested airports and airspace? Source: Wikipedia
Top 10 European air passenger flows in 2009 • High Speed Rail • 9-12 M pass pa breakeven • 400-600km maximum competition with air • Stop at airport undermines time savings for city-city service • Network node more valuable than single HSL • HSR replaced Air 80%+ Source: Eurostat
Modal shift from introduction of HSR (% shares) Source: Preston 2009.
High speed rail o-d city pairs market shares Source: De Rus, ITF Roundtable 145
HSR network and airports in Japan Source: Yamaguchi, ITF Symposium 2009
Air and Shinkansen demand (million pkm) Air Shinkansen Source: Yamaguchi, ITF Symposium 2009
Conclusions • Principle access to airports is by road – end-to-end convenience with baggage. • Road catchment determines competition between airports. • Biggest modal transfer is from conventional rail to HSR until distances of 500 km or where sea crossing. • Value for hub feeder substitution depends on geography, as HSL only viable for city centre pairs with market of 9m plus • To relieve “capacity crunch” all options important • SESAR • Runway congestion pricing • Runway capacity • HSR where spatial geography fortuitous – Japan
Thank you Stephen Perkinsstephen.perkins@oecd.org Postal address 2 rue Andre Pascal75775 Paris Cedex 16