An update on the science of climate change. David Karoly School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne. TC Larry, 2006 From Bureau of Meteorology. Global warming alarmism?. Garnaut Climate Change Review (2008) concluded. Climate change is a diabolical policy problem
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School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne
TC Larry, 2006
From Bureau of Meteorology
‘Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level.’ (IPCC 2007)
WGI Fig SPM.3
‘Global atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide have increasedmarkedly as a result of human activities since 1750 and now far exceed pre-industrial valuesdetermined from ice cores spanning many thousands of years.The global increasesin carbon dioxide concentration are due primarily to fossil fuel use and land-use change, while those ofmethane and nitrous oxide are primarily due to agriculture.’
WGI Fig SPM.1
In 2005, greenhouse gas concentration was 455 ppm CO2-eq. A large part of the warming influence is masked by aerosols.
WGI Fig SPM.2
WGI Fig 8.4
‘Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely (more than 90% certain) due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.’ IPCC(2007)
WGI Fig TS.23
‘It is likely that there has been significant anthropogenic warming over the past 50 years averaged over each continent except Antarctica.’
WGI Fig SPM.4
‘Continued greenhouse gas emissions at or above current rates would cause further warming and induce many changes in the global climate system during the 21st century that would very likely be larger than those observed during the 20th century.’
WGI Fig SPM.5
WGI Fig SPM.6
‘There is now higher confidence in projected patterns of warming and other regional-scale features, including changes in circulation patterns, precipitation, and some aspects of extremes and of ice.’
From Stroeve et al, GRL, 2007
From Stroeve et al, GRL, 2007
Best estimate projected rainfall change for 2070(from “Climate change in Australia”)
Observed trend in annual rainfall 1970-2007
Past sea level and sea-level projections from 1990 to 2100 based on global mean temperature projections of the IPCC TAR.
From Rahmstorf, Science, 2007
From IPCC AR4
UNFCCC includes principle that: “Parties should protect the climate system...on the basis of equity and in accordance with their common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities. Accordingly, the developed country Parties should take the lead in combating climate change” (UNFCCC, Art.3.1).
Regional greenhouse gas emissions in 2004
SyR Fig 2.2a
SyR Fig SPM.11
Dept of Climate Change “Tracking to the Kyoto target 2007”
Australian emissions from energy use and transport have grown at more than 20% per decade. Australia is close to its Kyoto target only because of one-off reductions in land clearing.
Sector % change in 2010 in 2020
Stationary energy +56% +64%
Transport +42% +67
Land use change -68% -68%
Total +8% +20%
From Ramanathan and Feng, PNAS, 2008
My contact information: Prof David Karoly, School of Earth Sciences firstname.lastname@example.org