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North American Drought Briefing for Jan 2012 and Nov 2011-Jan2012. Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA Current Partners. CPC: Kingtse Mo, LiChuan Chen, Muthuvel Chelliah, Wesley Ebisuzaki, Huug van den Dool

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North american drought briefing for jan 2012 and nov 2011 jan2012

North American Drought Briefingfor Jan 2012 and Nov 2011-Jan2012

Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA

Current partners

Current Partners

CPC: Kingtse Mo, LiChuan Chen, Muthuvel Chelliah, Wesley Ebisuzaki, Huug van den Dool

EMC: NLDAS Team: Youlong Xia, Jesse Meng, Helin Wei, Michael Ek

NASA/GSFC: Randy Koster, Greg Walker

Princeton Univ.: Eric Wood, Justin Scheffield

Univ. of Washington: Dennis Lettenmaier, S. Shukla,

Web Masters: Joe Harrison

RFCs: James noel, Kevin Werner, Andy Wood, Jeff Dobur, John Feldt

Project Funded by NOAA MAPP, TRACS& NASA

P anomalies over the United States

  • High lights:

  • Jan 2012

  • Rainfall over Texas and the Pacific Northwest improved drought

  • Dry over California and Arizona

  • Dryness continues over the Southeast and the Atlantic coast


  • Drought over Texas improved . It no longer shows up on the SPI3 map

  • For short term SPI3, dryness improved over the Pacific Northwest

  • Drought is developing over the region from California to Colorado;

  • Drought continues over Minnesota , Wisconsin and Southeast

D3 D2 D1

Streamflow percentile usgs
Streamflow percentile (USGS)

Improvements :Southern Plains and the Pacific Northwest

Drought; Northern California, Southeast

Runoff 3 mo


U Washington



Runoff SRI3 from the UW and the NCEP agree

SRI3 shows dryness over the West Coast, Southeast and Minnesota Wisconsin.

Drought over the Southern Plains improved

Multi model sm information

U Washington

Multi model SM information




SM % agrees with the runoff

Drought over the Southern Plains

Improved. Dryness only remains over western Texas and southern tip of Texas

Dryness continues over California, Minnesota , Wisconsin and Southeast

SM anomaly (mm) for Jan 2012

Runoff anomaly (mm/day) for Jan 2012

Drought monitor

Dry conditions over the Texas, Oklahoma New Mexico improved

Drought continues over Minnesota, Wisconsin and the Southeast

SWE from multi model UW

NRCS Basin Averaged Snow Water Content (%)

Snow % is below normal from California, Nevada to Colorado


  • La Nina is slightly weaker, but SSTAs the central Pacific are still less than

  • -1.5C

  • Positive SSTAs in the North Pacific

  • Negative SSTAs in the Tropical South Atlantic


Positive OLRAS (suppressed convection) in the central

Pacific and enhanced convection over the western Pacific consistent with cold ENSO

The streamfunction anomaly shows positive anomalies over California (dry) and negative anomalies over the PNW (wet)

Outgoing longwave radiation olr anomalies
Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) Anomalies

Positive OLRA associated with ENSO dominates over the central Pacific.

Regular MJO since Oct 2011.

Ensemble mean GFS




Ssta forecasts
SSTA forecasts



Cold ENSO is weakening quickly

Positive SSTAs are still located over the Northern Pacific,

Iri cpc probability based enso forecasts
IRI-CPCProbability based ENSO forecasts

  • Winter- Cold ENSO

  • MAM-- cold and neutral ENSO have about equal chance to occur

  • After May –Neutral conditions

T and p fcsts for fma 2012
T and P fcsts for FMA 2012




Cold ENSO impact

SPI forecasts based on CFSv2 (IC s Feb 3,4 2012

  • Drought over Texas, Minn, Wisconsin and the PNW will continue to improve.

  • Some improvement over the Southeast

Fcst uw ic s 20120204
FCST UW IC s 20120204

SM 1mo

SM 3 mo

SM 2mo

RO 1mo

SM month 1

EMC/Princeton system

Ics 20120202

SM month 3

SM month 2


Drought outlook

Last month

Need to update

This month

SPI forecasts based on CFSv2

ICs Dec 3 and 4

Jan 2012



SM fcst made in Jan 2012

U Washington conditional EN

Ro 1mo



Ocean conditions :

  • La Nina is weakening but SSTAs less than -1.5C still remain over the tropical Pacific

    Current conditions:


  • Rainfall brought relieve to the Southern Plains and the Pacific Northwest

  • Drought continues over Minnesota and Wisconsin

  • Drought developing from California to Colorado


    Ohio Valley, Northeast


La Nina

  • Cold ENSO is weakening and turning to Neutral conditions by spring


  • Drought over the Southern Plains , the Pacific Northwest continues to weaken.

  • Minnesota, Wisconsin and Southeast –continue for two months and then weakening