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Soybean Situation &Outlook

Soybean Situation &Outlook. Chuck Danehower Extension Specialist – Farm Management. What Affects the Soybean Market?. U.S. Dollar. 77.27. 9.19. What Affects the Soybean Market?. U.S. Dollar Crude Oil. 66.95. 9.19. What Affects the Soybean Market?. U.S. Dollar Crude Oil

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Soybean Situation &Outlook

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  1. Soybean Situation &Outlook Chuck Danehower Extension Specialist – Farm Management

  2. What Affects the Soybean Market? • U.S. Dollar

  3. 77.27 9.19

  4. What Affects the Soybean Market? • U.S. Dollar • Crude Oil

  5. 66.95 9.19

  6. What Affects the Soybean Market? • U.S. Dollar • Crude Oil • U.S. & World Economic Health • Slow Ag news days market follows Dow

  7. 9789 9.19

  8. What Affects the Soybean Market? • U.S. Dollar • Crude Oil • U.S. & World Economic Health • Slow Ag news days market follows Dow • Index and Commodity Funds

  9. What Affects the Soybean Market? • U.S. Dollar • Crude Oil • U.S. & World Economic Health • Index and Commodity Funds • Weather • Argentina – worst drought in 50 years

  10. What Affects the Soybean Market? • U.S. Dollar • Crude Oil • U.S. & World Economic Health • Index and Commodity Funds • Weather • Argentina – worst drought in 50 years • How did wet Spring affect acres & yields? • Farmers have said it was the worse planting season ever experienced.

  11. What Affects the Soybean Market? • U.S. Dollar • Crude Oil • U.S. & World Economic Health • Index and Commodity Funds • Weather • Argentina – worst drought in 50 years • How did wet Spring affect acres & yields? • Frost concerns have added support to prices

  12. Percent Dropping LeavesSept. 27/5 Yr. Avg. 73% 85% 81% 84% 86% 90% 76% 84% 74% 80% 76% 83% 63% 81% Nationwide 63% 77% 41% 77% 40% 56% 58% 69% Freeze By Yield Loss R5 65% R6 37% R7 11% R8 0%

  13. Soybeans for Beans, Area Harvested, Yield, Selected States, Forecasted September 1, 2009 StateAcres(1,000)200920085 yr. Avg. AL 440 37.0 35.0 28.8 AR 3,350 38.0 38.0 36.4 GA 480 34.0 30.0 28.4 IL 9,050 44.0 47.0 47.0 IN 5,480 43.0 45.0 48.3 IA 9,730 52.0 46.0 50.0 KS 3,500 40.0 37.0 36.0 KY 1,430 42.0 34.0 38.5 LA 1,000 35.0 33.0 35.8 MI 1,990 38.0 37.0 39.9 MN 7,100 40.0 38.0 40.7 MS 2,170 41.0 40.0 36.1 MO 5,350 42.0 38.0 39.1 NE 4,650 51.0 46.5 48.4 NC 1,760 34.0 33.0 29.6

  14. Soybeans for Beans, Area Harvested, Yield, Selected States, Forecasted September 1, 2009 StateAcres(1,000)200920085 yr. Avg. ND 4,000 30.0 28.0 30.9 OH 4,580 47.0 36.0 44.4 SC 590 27.0 32.0 25.4 SD 4,300 39.0 34.0 35.8 TN 1,560 40.0 34.0 34.2 TX 210 25.0 24.0 28.7 VA 590 35.0 32.0 32.0 WI 1,630 39.0 35.0 39.6 US 76,767 42.3 39.6 41.9

  15. U.S.Soybean Oil 09/10 P 08/09 E07/08 Million pounds Beg. Stocks 3,100 2,485 3,085 Production 19,180 18,915 20,580 Imports 75 100 65 Supply, Total 22,355 21,500 23,730 Domestic 16,500 16,200 16,200 For methy ester 2,100 1,850 3,245 Exports 3,250 2,200 2,911 Use, total 19,750 18,400 21,246 Ending Stocks 2,605 3,100 2,485 Average Price (c/lb) 32.00 – 36.00 32.25 52.03

  16. 33.24

  17. U.S.Soybean Meal 09/10 P 08/09 E07/08 Thousand short tons Beg. Stocks 300 294 343 Production 40,235 39,456 42,284 Imports 165 100 141 Supply, Total 40,700 39,850 42,768 Domestic 30,800 30,750 33,232 Exports 9,600 8,800 9,242 Use, total 40,400 39,550 42,474 Ending Stocks 300 300 294 Average Price ($/s.t.) 280 330 335.94

  18. 288.50

  19. U.S. Soybean Ending Stocks and Price, 1993-2009

  20. Foreign ProductionWASDE-474 September 11, 2009 Argentina Billion bushels 09/10 P08/09 E07/08 Beg. Stocks .560 .800 .830 Production 1.873 1.176 1.698 Exports .356 .219 .508 Total Domestic Use 1.721 1.475 1.837 Ending Stocks .731 .560 .800

  21. Foreign Production WASDE-474 September 11, 2009 Brazil Billion bushels 09/10 P08/09 E07/08 Beg. Stocks .435 .694 .668 Production 2.278 2.094 2.241 Exports .898 1.078 .932 Total Domestic Use 2.171 2.356 2.219 Ending Stocks .547 .435 .694

  22. Foreign Production WASDE-474 September 11, 2009 China Billion bushels 09/10 P08/09 E07/08 Beg. Stocks .303 .156 .099 Production .551 .588 .514 Imports 1.415 1.462 1.390 Total Use (includes exports) 1.990 1.886 1.831 Ending Stocks .279 .303 .156 China has committed to buy 430 million bushels of U.S. soybeans. This is 62% of total imports from U.S. and 30% of total imports.

  23. World Supply & Demand WASDE-474 September 11, 2009 Billion bushels 09/10 P08/09 E07/08 Beg. Stocks 1.478 1.944 2.311 Production 8.963 7.742 8.125 Imports 2.757 2.732 2.872 Total Domestic Use 8.511 8.136 8.442 Exports 2.831 2.804 2.921 Ending Stocks 1.857 1.478 1.944

  24. 9.1925

  25. Summary & Observations • Outside influences are affecting the market. • Crop is later than normal, yields uncertain. • Next USDA S & D Report – October 8, 2009 • Will there be an acreage surprise? • Strong Chinese demand, will it continue? • Acreage estimates for 2010 • Soybean/corn ratio • Weekly Comments • http://economics.ag.utk.edu/cropcomm.html • http://economics.ag.utk.edu/careers.html

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