1 / 30

Philippine Economic Outlook

Philippine Economic Outlook . Dr. Roberto F. de Ocampo President Makati Shangri-La 21 February 2006. Outline of Presentation. 2005 Philippine Economic Performance Analysis of Economic Performance Outlook for 2006. 2005: A Challenging Year. Protracted Political Crisis

Jimmy
Download Presentation

Philippine Economic Outlook

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript


  1. Philippine Economic Outlook Dr. Roberto F. de Ocampo President Makati Shangri-La 21 February 2006

  2. Outline of Presentation • 2005 Philippine Economic Performance • Analysis of Economic Performance • Outlook for 2006

  3. 2005: A Challenging Year • Protracted Political Crisis • Fiscal Crisis from August 2004 • Escalating Oil Prices • Sluggish Export Demand • Slow Recovery from El Nino in 2004

  4. Economic Performance Indicators • Surprising, resilient GDP growth Growth Rates Source: NEDA

  5. Economic Performance Indicators • Slower growth in most Asian countries GDP Growth Rates for Selected Asian Countries Source: NEDA, Ateneo

  6. Economic Performance Indicators • Strengthening Peso Philippine Peso – US Dollar Exchange Rate Source: BSP

  7. Economic Performance Indicators • OFW Remittances on the rise Remittances from Overseas Workers 25% Increase In Millions of US$ Source: BSP

  8. Economic Performance Indicators • Budget Deficit under control RP Government Budget Deficit In Billions of Philippine Pesos Source: BSP

  9. Economic Performance Indicators • Stock market is rebounding Philippine Stock Exchange Indicators In Millions of Philippine Pesos PSE Composite Index Source: PSE

  10. Economic Performance Indicators • T-Bill spreads falling 3 Month Treasury Bill Rates Source: BSP

  11. Economic Performance Indicators • Inflation easing Monthly Inflation Rates 2000-2005 Source: BSP

  12. 2006: Looking Up? • Improved credit ratings outlook • Increased tax collections from 12% VAT • Improvement in agricultural outlook • Better export potential • Local business optimism

  13. 2006: Questions Remain • Are things as good as they seem? • If things are indeed going well, why is the economic growth not being felt by the general population?

  14. 2006: Challenges Remain • Need to improve investment climate

  15. Economic Performance Indicators • Limited FDI inflows Net Foreign Direct Investments In Millions of US$ Source: BSP

  16. 2006: Challenges Remain • Need to improve investment climate • Currency appreciation may be difficult to sustain

  17. Strength of Currency • Change in BSP Regulations • Entry of portfolio funds to select stocks in the market

  18. Economic Performance Indicators • Return of Portfolio Investors Net Inflows of Portfolio Investments In Millions of US$ Source: BSP

  19. Strength of Currency • Change in BSP Regulations • Entry of portfolio funds to select stocks in the market • Excess global liquidity looking for Asian investments

  20. Strength of Currency • Change in BSP Regulations • Entry of portfolio funds to select stocks in the market • Excess global liquidity looking for Asian investments • Seasonal surge in OFW remittances

  21. Economic Performance Indicators • Seasonal fluctuations due to OFW Remittances Philippine Peso – US Dollar Exchange Rate Philippine Pesos Source: BSP

  22. 2006: Challenges Remain • Need to improve investment climate • Strengthening currency may difficult to sustain • Higher taxes may lower consumer demand

  23. Low Overall Competitiveness

  24. Why is Growth not Being Felt? • Slow growth in agriculture • Falling investments • Low job generation • High inflation caused by oil and VAT

  25. Potential Growth Drivers • Improved VAT collections/fiscal reforms • Infrastructure development • Power sector privatization • Mining • Booming sectors: • BPO / IT outsourcing • Tourism • Finance

  26. Potential Growth Challenges • Tax revenue leakage • Slow infrastructure development • Opposition to mining investments • Slow privatization

  27. Potential Risks • Oil shock • Bird flu pandemic • Continuing political problems

  28. Political Situation • Philippine Elections in 2007 • Two major political forces at play: • Those pushing for midterm elections • Those pushing for parliamentary elections • Both options require at least one year of preparation • Critical date: June 2006

  29. Outlook for 2006 • Political crisis overhang • Stable growth • India as model for development

  30. Philippine Economic Outlook Dr. Roberto F. de Ocampo President Makati Shangri-La 21 February 2006

More Related