Introduction to climate change work in Bangladesh

1. Introduction to climate change work in Bangladesh A.K.M. Saiful Islam Training workshop on Regional Climate Modeling using PRECIS February 14-18, 2010, Dhaka, Bangladesh Institute of Water and Flood Management (IWFM) Bangladesh University of Engineer and Technology (BUET)

2. Outline • Introduction to Climate Change Study Cell at BUET • Climate Change Conditions of Bangladesh • Regional Climate Change Modeling using PRECIS for Bangladesh

3. Climate Change Study Cell at BUET

4. Climate Change Study Cell • IWFM has established a climate change study cell in 2008. • The vision of the Cell is to establish itself as the premier knowledge center on climate change risk and adaptation for Bangladesh. Chief Guest was Minister of Disaster Management Launching Ceremony On March 08, 2009

5. Institution Frameworks Syndicate BOG Advisory committee Director Liaison Committee Coordinator Research Teams IWFM CCSC

6. Activities in 2008 Short courses • Two short courses on "Climate Change Training for Water Professionals”, were held on 17-19 November and 18-20 October of 2008 at DCE, BUET. • Short Course on "Climate Change Risks and Adaptation in Water Sector" held on 10-11 February, 2008 at DCE, BUET.

7. Activities in 2009 • M.Sc. Course in Climate Change Risk Management offered at IWFMCourse web site-http://teacher.buet.ac.bd/akmsaifulislam/climatecourse2009.html • In future Certificate course will be offered for professionals

8. Activities in 2009 Total 20 participants will attend this workshop from various Gov. and Non-Gov. organizations. This workshop will be organized in collaboration with Met Office, UK and funded by DFID, UK.

9. Upcoming – Capacity Building Program • In response to the call for project proposals for “Climate Change Trust Fund” from Ministry of Environment and Forestry (MoEF), CCSC has submitted a project proposal which include- • Fifteen Research Proposals on climate change • Computational Facility Development for Regional Climate Change Modeling • Student Fellowship • International Conference Organizations • Institutional Strengthen of the Cell

10. Visit our Website for more information http://teacher.buet.ac.bd/diriwfm/climate/

11. Changing Climate of Bangladesh

12. Temperature Data Analysis (1947-2007) Mean daily temperature of Bangladesh has increased with a rate of 1.03 0C per 100 years

13. Trends of Temperature of Bangladesh (1947-2007) Max. Temp. =0.63 0C/100 year Min. Temp. =1.37 0C/100 year

14. Meteorological Observational Stations in Bangladesh

15. Trends of Temperature For 34 ground measuring Stations of BMD

16. Monthly temperature over Bangladesh (1948-2007)

17. Month-wise Trends

18. Change of mean Temperature(0C/year)

19. Average Temperature in January (1948-2007) Daily Minimum Daily Maximum

20. Spatial Distribution of Trends of Temperature (1947-2007) • Maximum Temperature • Maximum increase: 0.0581 at Shitakunda • Minimum increase: -0.026 at Rangpur • Minimum Temperature • Maximum increase: 0.0404 at Bogra • Minimum increase: -0.023 at Tangail

21. Climate Change Impact for Bangladesh • Increase of intensity and duration of natural disasters such as floods, Cyclones and Storm Surges. • Increase of moisture stress (droughts) due to erratic precipitation • Salinity intrusion due to Sea Level Rise • Inundation due to sea level rise leading towards “Climate Refugees” • Effect on health and livelihood of coastal people. • Effect on Bio-diversity, Ecology & Sundarbans. • Hampered Food Security & Social Security.

22. The Sundarbans ..Mangrove forest?

23. Facing Climate Change • National Awareness building • Capacity Building through Training • Innovative Research for knowledge generations • Mitigation • Reduce Co2 emission, Use Green technology • Use of Alternative Energy sources – Solar, Wind etc. • Adaptation – • Build Shelters, Rise Embankments & Polders, Roads, Houses • Salinity tolerant crops, Forestation, alternative livelihood, improve warning system, migrations • Global Awareness & Justice • – Kyoto Protocol, COP15, COP16…. Raise our voice !

24. Regional Climate Change Modeling for Bangladesh

25. Regional Climate change modeling in Bangladesh PRECIS regional climate modeling is now running in Climate change study cell at IWFM,BUET. Uses LBC data from GCM (e.g. HadCM3). LBC data available for baseline, A2, B2, A1B scenarios up to 2100. Predictions for every hour. Needs more than 100 GB free space.

26. Domain used in PRECIS experiment

27. Topography of Experiment Domain Simulation Domain = 88 x 88 Resolution = 0.44 degree Zoom over Bangladesh

28. Predicted Change of Mean Temperature (0C) using A1B Baseline = 2000 2090 2050

29. Predicting Maximum Temperature using A2 Scenarios [Output of PRECIS model using SRES A2 scenario]

30. Predicting Minimum Temperature using A2 Scenarios [Output of PRECIS model using SRES A2 scenario]

31. Change of Mean Rainfall (mm/d) using A1B Scenarios Baseline = 2000 2050 2090

32. Predicting Rainfall using A2 Scenarios [Output of PRECIS model using SRES A2 scenario]

33. Change of mean climatic variables of Bangladesh using A1B Scenarios Rainfall (mm/d) Temperate (0C)

34. Monthly Average Rainfall (mm/d)

35. Monthly Average Temperature (0C)

36. Summary Analysis of the historic data (1948-2007) shows that daily maximum and minimum temperature has been increased with a rate of 0.63 0C and 1.37 0C per 100 years respectively. PRECIS simulation for Bangladesh using A1B climate change scenarios showed that mean temperature will be increased at a constant rate 40C per 100 year from the base line year 2000. On the other hand, mean rainfall will be increased by 4mm/d in 2050 and then decreased by 2.5mm/d in 2100 from base line year 2000.

37. Recommendations In future, Climate change predictions will be generated in more finer spatial scale(~25km). PRECIS model will be simulated with other Boundary condition data such as ECHAM5 using A1B scenarios. Results will be compared with other regional climate models such as RegCM3 etc.