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CLIMATE2030: A Japanese Project for Decadal Climate Prediction. Masahide Kimoto Center for Climate System Research University of Tokyo and Team SPAM. Climate Projection by Computer Models. IPCC AR4 SPM.

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Climate2030 a japanese project for decadal climate prediction

CLIMATE2030: A Japanese Project for Decadal Climate Prediction

Masahide Kimoto

Center for Climate System Research

University of Tokyo

and

Team SPAM


Climate2030 a japanese project for decadal climate prediction

Climate Projection by Computer Models Prediction

IPCC AR4 SPM


The 2nd phase of japanese global warming project on the earth simulator kakushin program 2007 2012
The 2nd phase of Japanese global warming project Predictionon the Earth Simulator(Kakushin Program; 2007-2012)

  • Team 1: Long-term (FRCGC/NIES/CCSR) Tokioka

    • MIROC-ESM (T42L80+1.0x1.4L44+carbon cycle+aerosols+chemistry)

    • NICAM global CSRM, EMIC for uncertainty

    • physics ensemble

    • detailed dyn veg

    • crop yields, high tides

  • Team 2: Near-term (CCSR/NIES/FRCGC) Kimoto

    • MIROC AOGCM (T213AGCM+1/4x1/6OGCM+aerosols; medres(T85) as well)

    • Initialization w/ obs. + 10-member ensemble

    • Flood/drought risk assessment

    • Regionally hi-res OGCM

  • Team 3: Hi-res time-slice (MRI/JMA) Kitoh

    • 20km AGCM + 1km nested regional model near Japan

    • Impact on hydrology, flood risk assessment, Typhoons

      # Teams 1-3 all consist ofModelling/Uncertainty/Impact study components

      # ES will be upgraded in March 2009 (2.x times faster)


Japanese climate 2030 project

Ensemble Predictionhindcast/forecast

Assimilation/Initialization

Japanese CLIMATE 2030 Project

110km mesh model

  • A near-term prediction up to 2030 with a high-resolution coupled AOGCM

    • 60km Atmos + 20x30km Ocean

    • w/ updated cloud PDF scheme, PBL, etc

    • advanced aerosol/chemistry

  • Estimate of uncertainty due to initial conditions

    • 10(?)-member ensemble

    • For impact applications

      • water risk assessment system

      • impacts on marine ecosystems

      • etc.

  • Test run w/ 20km AOGCM (in 2011)

60km mesh model

5-min topography


Near term projection issues
Near-Term Projection: Issues Prediction

Hawkins and Sutton (2008)

  • Models good enough?

  • Resolution? Ensembles?

  • Initialization? How?

  • Drift?

  • Decadal predictability?

  • Chemistry? Aerosols?

  • Volcanoes?


Decadal predictability for natural modes
Decadal Predictability for Natural Modes? Prediction

Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

(AMO)

Pacific Decadal Oscillation

(PDO)


Spam s ystem for p rediction and a ssimilation by m iroc
SPAM PredictionSystem for Prediction and Assimilation by MIROC

Data

Assimilation/

Initialization

Prediction Products

Data Assimilation

Coupled climate model MIROC


Impact assessment

Hirabayashi et al. (2006) Prediction

Impact assessment


Externally forced climate change 20 th century reproduction experiment w o data assimilation

Anthropogenic forcing Prediction

Only

Full forcing

(Natual + Anthropogenic)

Global mean SAT anomaly (oC)

Global mean SAT anomaly (oC)

Year

Year

Natural forcing Only

(Solar + Volcano)

No forcing

Global mean SAT anomaly (oC)

Global mean SAT anomaly (oC)

Year

Year

Externally forced climate change(20th Century Reproduction Experiment w/o Data Assimilation)

Nozawa et al. (2005)


Predictability of pdo impact of initialization
Predictability of PDO: Impact of initialization Prediction

SST EOF1

20C3M

OBS

Time series projected on to simulated PDO

4

2

0

-2

-4

Initialized hindcast (Initial: 1970)

1970 1975 1980

4

2

0

-2

-4

Uninitialized 20C experiment

1970 1975 1980

Observation

Hindcast & spread

Mochizuki et al. (2009, submitted)


Decadal predictability assimilation vs hindcasts w w o initialization

Difference between Assimilated and Not Assimilated FCST 2006-2010

Decadal Predictability?Assimilation vs. Hindcasts w/ &w/oinitialization

Global SAT

PDO

SPAM:

System for

Prediction and Assimilation by

MIROC

Mochizuki et al. (2009)


Reevaluation of historical upper ocean heat content
Reevaluation of historical upper-ocean heat content 2006-2010

  • Depth correction for historical XBT & MBT (Ishii and Kimoto, 2009)

Global heat content(0-700m)

V6.2: Old analysis

V6.7: New Analysis

MIROC: medres 20C3M & spread


Impacts of xbt dbc pdo
Impacts of XBT 2006-2010ーDBC: PDO

Projection onto 20C3M EOF1

without

XBT-DBC

EOF1

Observation

Predic. (1s)

with

XBT-DBC

XBT depth correction improved climatology & initial condition