1 / 33

The Record Breaking Floods of March 2010

The Record Breaking Floods of March 2010. Edward J. Capone, CFM Service Coordination Hydrologist NWS/Northeast River Forecast Center http://weather.gov/nerfc. West Warwick, RI at 1030 am Wednesday 3/31/10. Outline.

palti
Download Presentation

The Record Breaking Floods of March 2010

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. The Record Breaking Floods of March 2010 Edward J. Capone, CFMService Coordination HydrologistNWS/Northeast River Forecast Centerhttp://weather.gov/nerfc West Warwick, RI at 1030 am Wednesday 3/31/10

  2. Outline • A bit about the Northeast River Forecast Center (NWS NERFC) • What ingredients brought us to such a remarkable flood event – meteorology/hydrology/hydraulics? • A few historical perspectives • NERFC Opportunities going forward

  3. NWS River Forecast Centers • Mission: Protection of Life and Property • Flood Guidance • Water Supply • 13 River Forecast Centers across USA • 122 Weather Forecast Offices

  4. NERFC Service Area Major river basins include Genesee, Hudson, Mohawk, Housatonic, Connecticut, Merrimack , Blackstone, Pawtuxet, Kennebec , Penobscot and Saint John ~180 forecast points Staffing profile : -Managers 4 Senior Hydrologists / 3 Hydrologists 1 Senior HAS/2 HAS 1 ASA/Hydro Tech

  5. NERFC Customer/Partner Advisory BoardGuide us to ensure our products and services help meet the challenges of the many Regional Water Resource Impacts Floods, Drought, Water Supply, Power Generation, Fisheries Management, Ecosystem Health, Water Quality, Salt Water Intrusion, Dam/Levee Failures, Tropical Cyclone Impacts

  6. So what brought us to the tipping point in March 2010? • It was NOT caused by • One single Nor’easter or one Coastal Storm • Snowmelt • Improper water management

  7. So what brought us to the tipping point in March 2010? • It was caused by: • The atmospheric river – “energized” by El Nino • Blocking high pressure over Greenland • A sequence of heavy rainfall events over a 5 week period • March rainfall totaling 16-18 inches • Axis of each event over Pawtuxet Watershed (200 sq. mi) • Saturated ground • A “spilling” Scituate Reservoir System • Designed for Water Supply not Flood Control! • Swollen streams and ponds running well above normal • The lack of nature’s pumping – fully vegetated trees, etc. • Pre-growing season – no Evapotranspiration to help us out!

  8. So what brought us to the tipping point in March 2010? • Sequence of 4 big rain events • Orientation of rainfall in each event hit the Pawtuxet Basins the worst

  9. The Complete Picture:Record Setting Monthly Rainfall

  10. The cumulative effect: Saturation As much as 16 to 18 inches of rain in Rhode Island by the end of the month!

  11. The Pawtuxet’s Record Response

  12. Sensitivity to Reservoir Pool Elevation DataExcellent lead time but under-forecast for Cranston, RI

  13. But it floods in the Spring Pawtuxet River Flood Frequency

  14. Recurrence Interval Floods

  15. 100 Yr storms Yesteryear vs. Todayclimate changes ?? 24hr-100yr 7.0 inches for RI 8.5inches for RI …near today’s 24hr-45 year rainfall event Yesterday’s 24hr-100 yr rainfall event is … >7 inches for RI

  16. 100 Year(storm) Rainfall = 100 Year flood? Near 9” inches for basin Near 9” for RI

  17. The Atmospheric River • Narrow bands of enhanced water vapor transport outside of the tropics • 1500 to 3000 miles long 150 to 300 miles wide • Single one capable of carrying an amount of water vapor equivalent to 10-20 times the average flow of water at the mouth of the Mississippi River • Typically 3 to 5 of these plumes present within a hemisphere • Play a central role in the global water cycle • Account for >90% water vapor transported toward Poles • Can be a cause of extreme precipitation/major flooding in mid-latitudes • MIT researchers coined term in early 1990’s • Other Regional Names: Pineapple Express, ARk Storm, TUTT (Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough) , Fire Hose Effect • Not all cause damage … can be beneficial and crucial to water supply • Can produce >40” rain (2005 4-day California event)

  18. The March 2010 Atmospheric River 1. A constant train of storms 2. Each getting “super-charged” by El Nino: big rainners! 3. Persistent Block over Greenland slows ‘em down L H L L L L El Nino’s Moisture/Heat

  19. NASA/NOAA Satellite MovieMarch 2010 • March 8 to 16 • March 21 to 31

  20. MEDIA Contacts during the Flood • RI Governor’s Office • GLOBO TV – Brazil • TV Meteorologists • CNN/Regional/Local News • Globo TV News Story

  21. Then came the dams! • Arctic Mill Dam -- Warwick, RIClark Upper and Lower Dams -- Cranston, RIBlue Pond Dam -- Hopkinton, RIGlen Rock Reservoir Dam – S. Kingstown, RIQuidneck Reservoir -- Coventry, RIWinchek Pond Dam -- Hopkinton, RI • The NWS can assist by running real-time dam breach simulations • Providing timing, travel time, depth down stream • BUT ONLY IF WE KNOW ABOUT THEM!!!

  22. Dams in particular • Blue Pond experienced a complete failure • Hopkinton, RI

  23. ER High Hazard Dams “The Challenge of the HH Dam Impact”

  24. ASCE Report Card on High Hazard Dams/Levees”climate change continues to augment the variability and frequency of extremes in temperature and precipitation” As dams age and downstream development increases, the number of deficient dams has risen to more than 4,000, including 1,819 high hazard potential dams. Over the past six years, for every deficient, high hazard potential dam repaired, nearly two more were declared deficient. There are more than 85,000 dams in the U.S., and the average age is just over 51 years old.

  25. Historical Footnotes • Extremely rare to set two record flood elevations in two weeks – as was done on the Pawtuxet (>100 yr followed by a 500 yr flood) • Lots of similarity prior event -1982 • Pawtuxet major flooding • Consider this fact: • The storms in March 2010 dumped over 16 inches of rain …. Mostly in 7 days spread over the month • The record Flood in adjacent basins in 1955 was the result of over 10 inches in ONE DAY with over 14 to 16 inches of rain in 1 week in northern RI.

  26. Going Forward • Maintain support to USGS for their outstanding stream gaging networks and rating curve extensions ! • NWS needs accurate and dependable pool elevation data coming from the Scituate Reservoir • And/or the establishment of a tailwater gage downstream in Fiskville • Utilize technologies to assist with notifications to residents along the river that a flood is being forecast • Think reverse 911 or similar systems used by schools for closures • Tap academic / research partnerships as has been done for Hurricane Preparedness and Special Area Management Planning • Dams will continue to be a threat • NWS can help with real-time forecasts/simulations

  27. NERFC is currently producing Short-Range Probabilistic River Forecastshttp://www.erh.noaa.gov/mmefs

  28. MeteorologicForcings for Short-Range Probabilistic River Forecasts

  29. Future Services: National Inundation Mapping Program • The development of static /dynamic inundation mapping • NWS works with Federal, State, Local water Agencies/partners • Available where NWS produces stage forecasts • Available where LIDAR mapping and HEC-RAS modeling completed

  30. AHPS Page – Forecast Hydrograph

  31. Inundation Mapping from Real-Time River Forecasts x

  32. “They Paved Paradise and put up a parking Lot” (many)

  33. Questions ? THANK YOU! Edward J. Capone, CFMService Coordination HydrologistNWS/Northeast River Forecast Centerhttp://weather.gov/nerfc

More Related