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Economies on Transition: At the Crossroads of Development

Economies on Transition: At the Crossroads of Development. Olga Gassan-zade Center for Clean Air Policy, Ukraine SB-18, Bonn, June 9. New EU members Czech Republic Hungary Poland Slovakia Slovenia Latvia Lithuania Estonia. FSU Russia Ukraine Candidate countries Romania Bulgaria

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Economies on Transition: At the Crossroads of Development

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  1. Economies on Transition: At the Crossroads of Development Olga Gassan-zade Center for Clean Air Policy, Ukraine SB-18, Bonn, June 9

  2. New EU members Czech Republic Hungary Poland Slovakia Slovenia Latvia Lithuania Estonia FSU Russia Ukraine Candidate countries Romania Bulgaria Croatia EITs in the UNFCCC context Annex-I

  3. Differences in EITs • Regional affiliations • Political history • Level of governance and the rule of law • Development of institutions • Investment climate • Attractiveness for KP mechanisms

  4. Per Capita FDI, 2000

  5. New EU and Candidate Countries • Driven by accession • History of private entrepreneurship • Strong market and public institutions • Active foreign engagement • Diversification of GDP • Previous experience with JI/AIJ • Emissions trading as part of EU ETS

  6. Russia and Ukraine • Strategic focus in heavy industry • Competitive advantage in labor and energy-intensive industries • Driven by domestic rather than by foreign investment • Gross inefficiencies in energy and industrial sectors (Ukraine: $15-16 bln) • Lukewarm history with JI

  7. Energy and Carbon Intensity in EITs, 1998 Source: Frankhauser, S. and Lavric, L. The investment climate for climate investment: Joint Implementation in Transition countries, EBRD, 2003

  8. Industry Value Added in GDP

  9. Conclusions • The candidate countries appear best positioned to participate in JI • New EU countries will be part of EU ETS • Russia and Ukraine will not see the amounts of investment they need to change the situation in their industries, energy and carbon intensities are rising

  10. Thoughts for the Future • No reason to expect significant change in institutional development in Russia/Ukraine • Climate change is not a priority in Russia/Ukraine • If we fail to demonstrate that Kyoto can be a success this time there’ll be no case for the future. • Sustainable development • Good governance

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