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Alternative Energy Sources

Alternative Energy Sources. San Jose State University FX Rongère January 2009. Introduction The Time is now. San Jose State University FX Rongère January 2009. Renewable Energies: the Time is now. What has changed? Global Warming China and emerging countries Technology

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Alternative Energy Sources

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  1. Alternative Energy Sources San Jose State University FX Rongère January 2009

  2. IntroductionThe Time is now San Jose State University FX Rongère January 2009

  3. Renewable Energies: the Time is now • What has changed? • Global Warming • China and emerging countries • Technology • Risk Management • Oil and Natural Gas tensions • Renewable Energies in power mix Stronger driver Weaker driver

  4. 1. Global Warming

  5. Global Warming • A wise assumption Wikipedia.org http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Instrumental_Temperature_Record.png Dan Cayan ETCC Summit 2007 luncheon_cayan.pdf

  6. Global Warming Evidences • Glacier retreat: 1973 2006 Whitechuck Glacier in North Cascades National Park has retreated 1.2 miles since 1973

  7. Artic ice-pack shrinking

  8. Global Warming Evidences • Ocean are more acidic

  9. Global warming impact in California Source: CEC 500-2006-077

  10. Global warming impact in California • Potential impact in California Source: CEC 500-2006-077 Dan Cayan ETCC Summit 2007 luncheon_cayan.pdf

  11. Global Warming • Sector contributions in the USA: 6,000 M Tons (metric) in 2006

  12. Kyoto Protocol • Reduction of GHG emissions by 5.2% for industrialized countries (Annex1) in 2008-2012 compared to 1990 Signed and ratified Signed ratification pending Signed not ratified Not signed

  13. California AB 32 • Signed on September 27, 2006 • Goal: reduce California GHG emissions to 1990 levels by 2020: 427 MM tons of CO2 • California Air Resources Board (CARB) is leading the effort • Executive Order S-3-05 proposed to reduce the GHG emissions to 20% of 1990 by 2050 • Means by 2020: • Energy Efficiency • RPS to 33% • Cap and trade with other western states (WCI) • Restrictions for Transportation emissions

  14. Targets for AB32 Source: Climate Change, Proposed Scoping Plan, CARB, October 2008

  15. 2. China and Emerging Countries China is building 2 large power plants per week

  16. $ 25,000 GDP/c/y $ 50,000 GDP/c/y $ 12,500 GDP/c/y China and emerging countries • Carbon intensity of developed economies Intensity (Tons of CO2 per 1,000 US$ ) Source: CEC

  17. $ 12,500 GDP/c/y China passed the USA for CO2 emissions in 2006 with 6,200 MM Tons/year China (2007) China and emerging countries • Carbon intensity of India and China Intensity (Tons of CO2 per 1,000 US$ )

  18. China and Emerging Countries • Most of the CO2 emission increase is due to developing countries

  19. Carbon foot print • Action is required

  20. 3. Technologies

  21. Technologies • Major technology improvements

  22. Wind turbines • Bigger is better

  23. Growth of wind turbines

  24. Technologies • Solar cells: efficiency is everything

  25. 4. Risk Management

  26. Peakers High investment cost - High operation cost Base line Time of operation per year Risk Management • Electricity generation has moved from optimization to risk management Traditional portfolio

  27. Risk Management • Typical cost variability Gas Coal Hydro Nuclear Operation cost ($/kWh) Wind Solar Investment cost ($/kW)

  28. 5. Oil & Gas Tensions From: www.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/oceans-habitat/oceans/oap-pao/img/hudsonrig.jpg

  29. Oil and Gas Tensions • Oil Price 1 barrel = 42 Gallons July 12, 2008 $147.27 January 16, 2009 $36.51

  30. Oil Price over 2008 Source: Crude Oil Price NYMEX, http://www.wtrg.com/daily/crudeoilprice.html

  31. Oil and Gas Tensions • Weak dollar currency impact Source: Federal Bank of Texas – Quarterly Report (2nd Quarter 2008)

  32. Oil and Gas Tensions • Crude oil peak (M. King Huppert 1956)

  33. Crude Oil Peak Non OPEC countries

  34. Oil and Gas Tension • The USA have been increasingly dependent on foreign oil

  35. Oil and Gas Tensions • Natural Gas Price Volatility

  36. Renewable in Energy mix • Electricity generation in the world

  37. Power Generation in the USA USA Power Generation U.S. Power Plants The size of each circle represents the quantity of emissions in 2002 24 million tons 15 million tons 4 million tons CoalGasOil Source: MJ Bradley and Associates

  38. CO2 Emissions in the USA and in California • In 2006, the USA emissions were 6,000 MM tons of CO2, they were 480 MM tons in California Source: EPA, Inventory of U.S. Green House Gas Emissions and Sinks 1990-2006 February, 2008 CARB, Climate Change Proposed Scoping Plan, a framework for change October, 2008

  39. California Energy Mix • California Gross System Power for 2006 (GWh) Source: CEC http://www.energy.ca.gov/electricity/gross_system_power.html

  40. Renewable Portfolio Standards • 28 states have RPS *Four states, Illinois, Missouri, Virginia, and Vermont, have set voluntary goals for adopting renewable energy instead of portfolio standards with binding targets.

  41. Renewable Portfolio Standard Source: http://www.eere.energy.gov/states/maps/renewable_portfolio_states.cfm#map

  42. Fast growing Renewable Energy Sector • Wind is booming in the USA

  43. Fast growing Renewable Energy Sector Total 16,819 MW As 12/31/07 Source: awea 2007 1999

  44. 94,000 World wide

  45. Solar is booming

  46. Ethanol is booming

  47. Ethanol plants (2007)

  48. Biodiesel is booming

  49. Bio-diesel plants (2008)

  50. CleanTech Venture Capital

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