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NUOPC IOC Status Report to COPC November 16, 2010. Allan Darling Deputy Director, NCEP Central Operations NOAA NWS NCEP G. G. NUOPC IOC-1 / NAEFS. November 10, 2010. PM: Fred Toepfer. Objective. Y. Schedule.

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nuopc ioc status report to copc november 16 2010

NUOPC IOC Status Report to COPCNovember 16, 2010

Allan DarlingDeputy Director, NCEP Central Operations






November 10, 2010

PM: Fred Toepfer




Requirement: Combine the NOAA and Navy ensemble members as the National Ensemble. Combine this National Ensemble and the CMC ensemble in the NAEFS. With the addition of FNMOC, increase NAEFS members from 126 to 166, forecasts to 16 days, and standardize variables.

Goal: Enhance the multi-model ensemble system to produce bias corrected ensemble variables and probabilistic products for use by the Operational


Implementation slip from 22 Dec to 11 Jan

Key Issues/Risks/Mitigation

Risk: Schedule has slipped due to effect of required maintenance on availability of development system. Completion of external evaluation the week of 20 December pushes project completion to the first possible post-holiday implementation date of 11 January 2011.

Mitigation: None



    • Dr. M. Sestak
    • Mr. J. Ertl
  • NWS Telecommunication Operations Center
    • Mr. R. Bunge
  • NCEP Environmental Modeling Center
    • Dr. W. Lapenta
    • Mr. Y. Zhu
  • NCEP Central Operations
    • Mr. A. Darling
    • Mr. D. Starosta
    • Ms. R. Cosgrove
    • Ms. M. Mainelli
nuopc ioc task status
NUOPC IOC – Task Status

DATMS-U upgrade (JAG/CCM) - Complete

Infrastructure augmentation (TOC) - Complete

Ensemble delivery (FNMOC) - Complete



72 variables

New file structure for communication and processing efficiency

Routine delivery (FNMOC, TOC, NCEP) - Complete

Ensemble integration (NCEP, FNMOC) - Complete

Transition to operations (NCEP) – In process


nuopc ioc planned implementation
NUOPC IOC – Planned Implementation

Adding FNMOC ensemble to NAEFS

  • FNMOC 20+(1) members, out to 16 days, twice per day
  • Bias correction based on its FNMOC analysis
  • Four variables to include NCEP, CMC and FNMOC ensembles
    • 2 meter temperature
    • 10 meter zonal wind
    • 10 meter meridionalwind
    • 850mb temperature

Expected Benefits

  • Multi-model, multi-center ensembles
  • Improve the forecast skill for near surface variable

Continued evaluation of the benefits derived from the addition of the FNMOC ensemble data is required

Scope change may be required if pre-implementation testing reveals negative impact on skill for any of the four variables listed above

nuopc next steps
NUOPC – Next Steps

Develop UEO Implementation and Management Plan

Dissemination requirements

12-24 month work plan

Backup requirements

Development coordination

Rationalize NUOPC and NAEFS requirements

Establish NUOPC / NAEFS coordination process

Potential supporting infrastructure upgrades

FNMOC interface system upgrades

Next Generation COPC Enterprise Network (AI 2008-2.11)


action item management agreement
Action Item – Management Agreement

COPC Action Item 2010-1.4: Develop and submit to COPC for approval a Unified Multi-Model Ensemble Operations annex to the DAPE MOA to address NAEFS and/or NUOPC operations management, alignment of performance requirements, change management, and data dissemination.

Priority: H

Advocate: WG/CSAB, JAG/OCM, and JAG/CCM

Suspense: October 2010

  • CSAB is evaluating whether an appendix to the DAPE MOA is appropriate or if a new MOA is required to accomplish this agreement.
  • Management details regarding performance and alignment with change are still under evaluation.
    • CSAB recommends this action be kept open.