Global warming Disease problems and health hazards Bureau of Emerging Infectious Diseases http://beid.ddc.moph.go.th Department of Disease Control Ministry of Public Health, Thailand
What is “Global Warming”? • Globalwarming : An increase in the average temperature of the earth’s atmosphere, esp. a sustained increase sufficient to cause climatic change. • Climate change: a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods(source : UNFCCC)
Did you know …? • 18heat waves were reported in India within 10 yrs. (1980-1998) • In 1998 and 2003, China reported deaths over 4,000 cases from flash floods. • In 2001, heat waves in Bangladesh caused deaths among metal workers and rickshaw pullers due to heat stroke. • 2004 : Japan crashed by 10 Typhoons. ที่มา : WHO
Did you know that…? • 2004 : Philippines reported devastated area with more than 10,000 deaths from Typhoons and Topical storm. • In 2005, floods in Rajasthan and droughts in northeast India. • Thailand hitted by unusual droughts in 63 provinces with 9.2 million population effected. Source: Greenpeace
Did you know that …? • In 2006 : Bhutan reported loss of life from flash floods and landslides due to melting of glaciers Source : Basuki; www.who.int/phe ที่มา : WHO
Did you know that …? • In 2007 : 4 Monsoon depressions double the normal number caused severe floods in Bangladesh, India and Nepal causing death, loss of livelihood and displacement of millions.
2001 : over 45% of tourist resorts in the Maldives reported Beach Erosion In Indonesia, cases of dengue fever have risen by 50%between 2006-07 due to temperature increases Did you know that …? Source: Dr. Chirapol Sintunawa Source: WHO
Did you know that …? • The glaciers in the Himalayas are melting rapidly. The Himalayas contribute crucially to the water supply of 1.3 billions people, feeding into nine of Asia’s greatest rivers. Tiger habitat in Bangladesh faces threats from the rise in sea level Photo: @ Abir Abdullah / Still Pictures Photo: www.allposters.com ที่มา : WHO
India 2005: Unusual floods destroy train bridge: over 120 killed, hundreds injured floods, storms, cyclones and fires India 2005: Unusual rains in Chennai
Strong Global Warming Observed Global Average Near-Surface Temperatures since 1850-2007 Increased of temperatures in two decades average by 0.5°C Average global temperature is expected to rise by 0.2 degrees Celsius per decade over the next 100 years Source:
Antarctic and Arctic Ice Melting West sheet East sheet
Sea level is projected to rise by 9.88 cm. by 2100 • Increasing sea-levels • Strong wind
How do people produce “Global Warming”? • Mainly in burning of fossil fuel since mid-18th century due to industrialization. • Releasing of carbon dioxide from incineration of waste and electricity generation.
Photo: Basuki; www.who.int/phe Source: www.global-greenhouse-warming.com/
Greenhouse Gases Combustion of fossil fuels and forest fires Water vapor Protective layer in the upper atmosphere from UV radiation. If excessive produced caused air pollution such as smog & fog Combustion of fossil fuels andploughing farm soils Use of refrigerators, air conditioners, aerosol sprayand cleaning agents cause depletion of atmospheric ozone layer Animal husbandry, irrigated agriculture and oil extraction 7-11-2007 ดร. จิรพล สินธุนาวา 15 Modified from Dr. Chirapol Sinthunawa
Loaded greenhouse gases by man-made at atmosphere CH4 released from paddy field, animal husbandry and landfills Emitted CO2by burning fossil fuels for power and by deforestation …and “climate change” is happening!! “ Global climate change is happening !” Source : IPCC
USA, Saudi Arabia released highest CO2 per head of population in the world. Thailand
The Vienna Convention for the Protection of the Ozone Layer In 1981 the United Nations Environment Organization has established the legal and technical working group for drafting to achieve agreements in international treaties to resolve the damage called the Vienna Convention on ozone layer protection. Contains a pledge to cooperate in research and surveillance data exchange volumeEmissions and destroy the ozone layer as well as control the operation of the Convention to the future with the Vienna Convention The Vienna Convention for the Protection of the Ozone Layer adopted in March 1985, entered into force, 1988 by 28 countries Source:Hazardous Substances Control Bureau
The Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer To have negotiated the draft regulations and measures to prevent the destruction of the ozone layer under the Vienna Convention, which the draft was completed in the short time on 16 September 1987 at City Diamond Three Seasons of Canada in 47 countries worldwide,entered into force, 1989 Currently, 184countries around the world have jointly ratified the Vienna Conventionincluded Thailand 16 September is an Ozone Day
Thailand's role • Must take steps to reduce and stop using the substances in accordance with the specified period. • Must report the amount of controlled substance to UNEP who serves as the Secretariat of the Protocol. • Department of Industrial Works Ministry of Industry as the primary agency responsible conducted studies in amount of substances destroying the ozone layer in different industry sectors and the import volume controls destroying substances. • National Plan of Thailand: to stop using substances that destroy the ozone layer and prepared for the period of disuse substances destroying the ozone layer.
Globalization Pop. Growth & Urbanization Global warming Deforestation & others factors Industrialization & trade
What if…Climate Change? • Increasing sea-levels • Increasing Strong wind Photo: www.allposters.com Increasing sea-levels will lead to costal erosion Photo: @ Greenpeace/Jeremy Sutton-Hibbert
Changes in the Claciers at Shrong Himal, Nepal over 26 years Source : Nagoya University, http://snowman.hyarc.nagoya-u.ac.jp
Vector-borne diseases: Weather events VS Impacts on human health (1) Heat stroke, Respiratory dis. Cardio-vascular illness Heat waves / air pollution Warmer temp. & disturbed rainfall patterns
สำนักโรคติดต่ออุบัติใหม่ กรมควบคุมโรค กระทรวงสาธารณสุข Changes in climate may alter the distribution of important vector species and may increase the spread of disease.
Water/ food-borne diseases: cholera, harmful algae bloom, etc. Weather events VS Impacts on human health (2) Heavy precipitation events Malnutrition & Starvation Psychosocial Stress Droughts
Marine HABs: Toxins & Toxicity Diarrheic, Paralytic, Neurotoxic, Amnestic shellfish poison, Ciguatera fish poison (DSP, PSP, NSP, ASP, CFP) Freshwater HABs Toxins Hepatoxins, Neurotoxins All are blue-green algae (cyanobacteria) Harmful Algal Blooms (HAB) & Global warming Expansion of water surface Warmers temp & longer duration Tendency to be toxic strains “Especially temperate zone”
Harmful algal bloom Harmful algal bloom ;Florida
Death, Injuries • Damage infrastructure • Diseases related to extreme climates eg. Leptospirosis • Social problems • Psychosocial Stress Weather events VS Impacts on human health (3) Cyclones, Storms, flooding • Disappearance of Land • Migration • Social conflict • Stress Sea level rise & Coastal storms
Projected impacts of global warming in Asia (1) • Glacier melt in the Himalayas is projected to increase flooding, rock avalanches from destabilised slopes, and affect water resources within the next two to three decades. This will be followed by decreased river flows as the glaciers recede. • Freshwater availability in Central, South, East and Southeast Asia particularly in large river basins is projected to decrease due to climate change which, along with population growth and increasing demand arising from higher standards of living, could adversely affect more than a billion people. Source: IPCC WGII Fourth Assessment Report, April 2007
Projected impacts of global warming in Asia (2) • Coastal areas, especially heavily-populated mega-delta regions in South, East and Southeast Asia, will be at greatest risk due to increased flooding from the sea and in some mega-deltas flooding from the rivers. • Climate change is projected to impinge on sustainable development of most developing countries of Asia as it compounds the pressures on natural resources and the environment associated with rapid urbanisation, industrialisation, and economic development. Source: IPCC WGII Fourth Assessment Report, April 2007
Projected impacts of global warming in Asia (3) • Endemic morbidity and mortality due to diarrhoeal disease primarily associated with floods and droughts are expected to rise in East, South and Southeast Asia due to projected changes in hydrological cycle associated with global warming. • Increases in coastal water temperature would exacerbate the abundance and/or toxicity of cholera in South Asia. Source: IPCC WGII Fourth Assessment Report, April 2007
Projected impacts of global warming in Asia It is projected that crop yields could increase up to 20% in East and Southeast Asia while it could decrease up to 30% in Central and South Asia by the mid 21 st century. Taken together and considering the influence of rapid population growth and urbanization, the risk of hunger is projected to remain very high in several developing countries.
Southeast Asia if West sheet melted (17-foot rise) Source: Dr. Chirapol Sintunawa 12-10-2007
Climate Change: Study Impactto Thailand Climate change tend to be : higher and longer temperatures BUT not dryness • Slightly increasing temperature around 1-2 °C • Summer season will be longer 1-2 months • Winter season will be shorter 1-2 months • Rainy season remains unchanged BUTwater volume will increase 10-20% • Uncertain season interval changed dramatically ( Extreme scenario ) What if Climate Change effected Thailand? Encourage to conduct various of continued-studies and brain storming
Where are we now? • Joined the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, UNFCCC) . • Non-Annex1 categories : without commitment to reduced greenhouse gases. • Release greenhouse gases in small proportion compared to other countries • Nevertheless Global climate change impact in countryclimate change too.
Copenhagen Summit, the 17th anniversary of the climate7-18 December 2009Copenhagen Denmark Mr. Abhisit Vejjajiva, Prime Minister and Dr. Khunying Kalaya Sophonpanich, Minster of Science and Technology participated the meeting on global warming in Copenhagen,organized by UNFCC At to solve global warming
Remains unclear to reduce greenhouse gas emissions Control Global Temperature not to increase over 2 degrees C in averageto seriously reduce global climate change BUT Searching for consensus To reduce greenhouse gas To defined framework and time frame in the preparation of new treaties.
Impacts in Thailand Sea Level Increasing sea-levels approximately 0.09 – 0.88 meters will lead to costal erosion. Gulf of Thailand Erosion crisis worse than the Andaman Sea; six areas crisis included Bangkok, Rayong, Petchaburi down to Narathivas
Bangkhunthien coastal water erosion 30-10-2007 ดร.จิรพล สินธุนาวา 46
Floods Within 3 decades, country severely affected by climate change in the frequency of extreme weather events result Floods and storms, especially in eastern coastal lines and southern area near the ocean as well as Bangkok, Hadyai and Chiangmai. Climate change may also affect diseases spread both human and animal/plants delta regions
Land Slide Flash Floods
Drought Drought occurs in summer caused dryness reservoir, reduced crop yields. Dryness affecting in crops produced caused farmers stress
Fog and Forest Fires Long term high temperature has been rise in key air pollutants causes respiratory diseases.