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  1. Telecommunication Trend from ancient time to the first half of this century and its impact on Information Society Haybatolah Khakzar Stuttgart University, Germany

  2. Abstract This paper deals with Telecommunication trends from ancient time to the next decades. First of all, I bring a brief history of beginning of telecommunication and than trends in microelectronics technology as predicted by SIA in their roadmap will be presented. Based on ever shrinking geometries of solid state devices and ever decreasing size of telecommunication equipment, the number of telecommunication subscribers will add up in the next few decades, until in average every man on earth has a mobile phone. The demand for higher bandwidth leads us to the use of optical fibres in networks around the world. This trend also boosts equipment development, as we will see in another part of this paper. Coding will be in future very important. I close my paper with some poems of Ferdowsi, where you see that coding was used 2500 years ago. Keywords Roadmap of Microelectronic Technology, subscriber, mobile phone, optical fibre, satellite 1. Introduction 50 kilometres away from Shiraz we have persepolis the capital of the hochamanid dynasty, the cradle of communication. Herodoth describes in his 8th book part 98 the post system of that time. He writes that the Iranian have very fast horses. They are kept in places with the name angereion. Hedjazi writes in the magazine no. 4 of Ptt that the word post comes from sanscrit and means constant. That word has been overtaken in Latein. Posta comes from the word positus which means something like the place where you can deposit things and this word is in greek pistoli. The first telegraph was in the year 481 B. C. during the time of King Xerxes when Mardunieh telegraphed the conquering of Athens. On 24th of May 1844 at 8.45 o clock sent morse a telegraph from Washington to Baltimore and transmitted a sentence from bible what for marvellous creates the God. They did not believe him and said he is Shalatan. Only 16 years after that Siemens made one of the largest communications networks from England via Kermanshah, Isfahan, Shiarz and Bushehr to India. 2. Technology Trends of Microelectronics The technology of electronics goes to smaller and smaller structures in the direction of nano electronics. The smaller structures bring new effects in the semiconductor technology and also new directions. The nano technology goes two different ways, the top down and the bottom up. In the first case we go to smaller structures by physical, chemical and mechanical processes, where as in the second case we will have complex systems by atomic and molecular structures of the components. The research on the carbonnat pipes is an important section of research which I can not say much about it, because it is not my area of activity. The Roadmap of Technology Trends in Microelectronics, published by the SIA in 2002 [SIA 2002] shows a dramatic increase in DRAM storage capacity and on-chip transistor density. This fact is due to ever decreasing gate lengths in modern MOS processes. The roadmap predicts a decrease of the gate length of a MOS transistor used in modern microprocessor chips from 53nm in 2002 to 28nm in 2006, 18nm in 2010 and 9nm in 2016. Using these figures, the storage capacity on a single chip will change from 512Mbit in 2002 up to 2Gbit in 2006 to 64Gbit in 2016. According to the roadmap, the nominal power supply voltage of a logic or microprocessor chip will drop from 1.1V in 2002 to 0.9V in 2006 down to 0.4V in 2016. The realisation of threshold voltage of 0,4 V will be very difficult. Telecommunication Trend from ancient time to the first half of this century and its impact on Information SocietyHaybatolah KhakzarStuttgart University,

  3. 3.2 Satellite Communication Systems Table 3.2.1 shows satellite networks evolution 3.2.1 satellite networks evolution 3.3. Optical Communication Systems The optical Systems are the most important systems for an efficient core network, because they are the answer for broader bandwidth in the future. DWDM and digital cross connects of communication networks are the answer for the new standards in new communication. The optical transport hierarchies are as follows: 3. Microwave-, Satellite-, Optical-, Internet-, Mobile- and High definition TV-Communication-Systems 3.1 Microwave communication Systems Microwave communication is an interesting alternative to the optical cables. The microwave is outside of dense areas the only alternative. Their repeater spacing is ca. 80 kilometres. In most of the time the microwave is cheaper than the cable system. Therefore the countries of the third world mostly begin with microwaves systems, when they build the infrastructure of their communication system. Unfortunately offers microwave technology not enough bandwidth. Therefore microwave systems have to use PSK modulation. Just now labs develop 256 PSK-Systems which is very critical to noise and can not survive without coding. Networksystem nominal Daterate equvivalent SDH/Sonet 2,5 Gbit/s 2488320 kbit/s STM-16/OC-48 ODU 1 Payload 2488320 kbit/s OTM 2666057,143 kbit/s 10 Gbit/s 9953280 kbit/s STM-64-/OC-192 ODU2 Payload 9995276992 kbit/s OTM2 10709225,316 kbit/s 40 Gbit/s 39813120kbit/s STM-256/OC-768 ODU3 Payload 401501593322 kbit/s OTM3 43018413,559 kbit/s 1987 I realised a low noise optical receiver with HEMT transistors and feedback over 3 stages. I described the results in former conference.

  4. It shows that the Bit stream between US/Canada and Europe was already 4 Tbit/s in the year 2000. Alcatel and Wireless companies are planning to build a fibre optical Transmission between US & Canada and Europe to transport 4 Tbit/s over only 4 fibres using WDM technology. Some OPEC members and oil companies are planning to build the same system around the globe with a length of 30.000 km, using Optical Amplifier Technology. 3.4 Mobile communication Systems We will have soon everywhere Universal mobile communication systems (UMTS) with the 1,920 – 2.120 GHz with an average cell radius of 500 m – 900 m and transmit power of 125 mW – 2 W. 3.5 Internet Table 3.5.1 shows the Internet history Table 3.5.1 Internet history Figure 3.3.1: Bitrate per Cable in Tbit/s The figure 3.3.1 shows the development of Bits transported over one single cable. The squares standing on their corner are representing copper cables, the upper squares for optical fibres. Just now (2005) we are able to transport 12 Tbit/s over one optical fibre using WDM (wavelength division multiplexing). 40Gbit/s x 300 wavelength = 12000 Gbit/s = 12Tbit/s. The figure 3.3.2 is a prediction of the possible bit rate trends in optical fibres [2]. Figure 3.3.3 bitstream between the continents.

  5. Fig 4.1: Trends in Telecommunication Subscribers The figure 4.1 shows the trends of the number of fixed and mobile phone users. It shows that we will have nearly 10 Billion handies around the year 2030. This means, every inhabitant of the earth has one mobile phone in average, if the trend of the last years will persist. Figure 4.2 : Long Term Bitrate Trends The Figure 4.2 shows trends in Digital Access Technologies for a small office using two different scenarios: The first scenario is a cautious scenario, predicting that one person might use a capacity of up to 200 Mbit/s for data exchange from his home office using modem technology, whereas a more optimistic scenario predicts a bitrate of about 1 Gbit/s used by one single person. Telecommunication technology resulted in the growth of the global information infrastructure. The Internet, a network of networks, is revolutionizing how information is accessed and how people communicate. The Internet has potential to change a person’s lifestyle with services ranging from shopping, finding local entertainment to helping with children’s homework. Technological development in the last several years combined with new network architectures interconnecting various heterogeneous information systems created a truly global information infrastructure. Many future broadband applications such as streaming video and audio, real-time distance learning, medical imaging, movie downloads, and online gaming, targing both residential and enterprise targeting users, demand high bandwidth. An outcome of this demand were several technologies under development to provide advanced network services with increased capacity of 40 Gabit/s per second, Internet Protocol version 6 (IVv6), and IP over Dense Wavelength Division Multiplexing (DWDM) backbone. 3.6 High Definition TV The high definition TV of the future will have seven times more points 720 x 576 points than the todays TV’s with 720 x 576 points. The Premiere a pay TV organisation, in Germany will bring three HDTV programmes, for cinema, sport and documentation at the end of this year. You can buy at german markets plasma flat screens with 105 cm x 65 cm x 18 cm for only 1.490,-- €. They show brilliant pictures with these TV sets. But there is still a lot to do to decide the digital Video Broadcasting (DVB) standard. European Telecommunication standard institute (ETSI) has published a draft for Digital Video Broadcasting (DVB). It describes in 70 pages second generation framing structure, channel coding and modulation systems for Broadcasting, Interactive Services, New Gathering and other broadband satellite applications. It will be difficult to find a compromise between microwave, satellite, mobile communication systems who have not enough bandwidth on one side and optical communication systems on the other side, who wants 140 Mbit/s for a TV programm, because of its DWDM possibility. 4. Telecommunication Subscriber Trends (in Millions)

  6. 5 Trends in Networked Equipment • 6. Equipment Visions • Equipment visions is to be divided into several groups. • Regarding Computers, I would like to list the development on the basic of past inventions. • Calculation machines (Schickard, Babbage, Zuse) • The Myth of Thinking Machines (Mortimer Taube 1960) • Engines of Creation (K. Eric Drexler 1986) • The Future of Robot and Human Intelligence (Hans Moravec 1988) • The Age of Intelligent Machines (Ray Kurzweil 1990) • The Age of Spiritual Machines (Ray Kurzweil 1999) • The key words of the Computer trends are: • Desktop, Deskside, Laptop, Notebook, Portable, Ultraportable, Personal Digital Assistants Figure 5.1: Trends in Networked Equipment Figure 5.1 shows the trend of networked equipment [3]. The TV set is being counted to the networked equipment. As one can see, each inhabitants owns at average nearly one TVset. The trend in fixed and mobile subscribers goes to the same limit, as the above diagram shows. You will have one equipment for Internet, telephony in fixed network, mobile and Television. Figure 5.2 shows trends in screen development [3]. Beginning around the year 1940, where black-and-white TV sets usually having around 100.000 pixels, increasing to around 600.000 pixels for color TV sets and around 1.500.000 pixels for state-of-the-art high definition TV sets (HDTV) in the 1980’s and 1990’s. Regarding PC screens, there is a trend to increase pixel count using CRT’s to nearly 5.000.000, whereas flat panel display technology will probably expand pixel count to more than 10.000.000 pixels per screen about the year 2025. Regarding mobile equipment: after the handy, there will be UMTS and next generations. TV sets will probably emerge into Screen Wallpapers. Special equipment are Video Games and developments for Handicaped People like Sound Future for the Deaf . 7. A Vision: The Age of Digital Lifestyles or The Third Culture The vision of the future: We will have limited molecules and quasi unlimited bits. • The analogy to the present lifestyle of the mobile society with traffic by road, rail and air • The history from fairy tales and dreams to recognizeable facts • The trend: Interpretations and predictions utilizing a synergy of the above forecasts • The future: Limited molecules versus quasi-unlimited bits • Telecommunication establishes an informationsociety and with that democracy all over the world. • Telecommunication via Internet Universities brings better education to the people in developing countries Figure 5.2: Screen Trends

  7. 8. Conclusions The paper gives an outlook into the future of telecommunication. On the basis of past development trends I’ve tried to picture the future. Let me close with a sentence of Ian Pearson, British Telecom’s futurologist, which he said in 1999: “Accuracy is impossible but blurred vision is better than none at all.” 9. Poems of Ferdowsi which shows that coding was used 1000 years ago. 10. References [1] SIA Roadmap, update 2002, published at: [2] Bell Labs, Bachus [3] K.U. Stein, 2000 [4] Sastri L. Kota, Kavaeh Pahlavan, Pentti Leppanen Broadband Satellite Communications for Internet Access 2004 by Kluver Acedemic Publishers [5] CeBIT, Hannover Messe 2005 [6] Shahnameh [7] Pejman History of Telecommunication