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AIM/Local Model: India Application Manmohan Kapshe Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, India APEIS Capacity Building Workshop on Integrated Environment Assessment in Asia-Pacific Region Hotel Grand Inter-Continental, New Delhi October 24-26, 2002 Overview AIM/Local Model

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aim local model india application

AIM/Local Model:India Application

Manmohan Kapshe

Indian Institute of Management

Ahmedabad, India

APEIS Capacity Building Workshop on

Integrated Environment Assessment in Asia-Pacific Region

Hotel Grand Inter-Continental, New Delhi

October 24-26, 2002

IIM Ahmedabad

overview
Overview
  • AIM/Local Model
  • India AIM/Local Application
    • Large Point Sources (LPS)
    • Area Sources
  • Sub-regional AIM/Local Application (Ahmedabad District)

IIM Ahmedabad

slide3

AIM/Local Model

IIM Ahmedabad

slide4

Introduction

  • Modeling the dilemma of providing energy services and protecting the environment in a local region

CO2, SO2, NOX

Acid precipitation

Air pollutants

Energy Technology

Energy Service Demand

features
Features
  • Simplified Structure
  • Modeling local environmental constraints
  • Direct benefit and co-benefit of counter measures
  • Flexible model structure to cope with various practical situation in different regions
  • GAMS programming
  • Separate representation of LPS and Area Sources
  • GIS Interface

IIM Ahmedabad

slide6

Definitions

Parameters

Variables

Constraints

Service demand

Environmental target

Available energy supply

Linear programming

Solver

Operating capacity

Maximum shares of technologies

Maximum exchange of stock

Objective Function

Total cost  minimum

Methodology

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slide7

Input File

for GAMS

AIM-Local

Database System

AIM-Local model

GAMS version

Output file

from GAMS

GAMS

Input file

from IDRISI

IDRISI32

AIM-Local Database System

IIM Ahmedabad

slide8

Large Point Source and Area Source

Sector

Emission by point

Large Point Source

Emission by Region

Emission by Region

and Sector

Area Source

Sub-regional emissions are calculated as:

Emissions from LPS in the sub-region + Allocated Area Source Emissions

IIM Ahmedabad

slide9

Structure of AIM-Local Database

Energy service tech. (LT)

& Air Pollution Control (P)

- Energy Cons.(K L P T),

- Service Supply (L J T)

- Fixed Cost (L P T)

- Removal Rate (L P T) etc.

Energy Service Tech.(L T)

Service

Technology

Air Pollution Control(P)

Service Demand( I J )

Stock

Stock Quantity

( L T0)

Subsidy

( I L T )

Counter-

measure

Regulation( ME M T)

Technology Selection

Module

(AIM-Local GAMS ver.)

Share Potential( I L J T )

Share

Maintenance etc.( I LT )

Operating Rate

( I L T )

Performance

Tax( ME M T)

I : LPS or Area

L : Energy Device

P : Removal Porcess

J : Service

K : Energy

M : Gas (CO2, SO2, NO2)

T : Time

ME : Group on measure

Energy Consumption

CO2 Emission

SO2/NO2 Emission

( I L T )

Energy Price

Emission Factor

( K T )

Energy

Data requirements are similar to AIM/Enduse but more extensive, due to LPS data and GIS information requirements

IIM Ahmedabad

what is gis
What is GIS?

GIS is considered to answer the generic types of questions. These include questions about location, patterns, trends and conditions.

  • Where are particular features found?
  • What geographical patterns exist?
  • Where have changes occurred over a given time period?

IIM Ahmedabad

slide11

GIS Application

  • Capture location sensitivity
  • Layered information
  • Time slices
  • Integrating location and time information in a consistent framework

IIM Ahmedabad

delhi so 2 emissions from oil
Delhi SO2 Emissions from Oil

Sulfur Coefficient decrease from 1% to 0.05% (by weight) for Diesel over 1995-2002 has resulted in substantial SO2 emission reduction in Delhi

IIM Ahmedabad

sectoral lps share for co 2 2000
Sectoral LPS share for CO2 2000

All India

LPS

Paper

Power (Gas)

3%

3%

Cement

12%

Other

36%

Steel

20%

Power (Coal & Oil)

LPS Share

62%

64%

IIM Ahmedabad

sectoral lps share for so 2 2000

All India

LPS

Ind. Process

Paper

4%

5%

Cement

10%

Other

38%

Steel

Power (Coal & Oil)

22%

59%

LPS Share

62%

Sectoral LPS share for SO2 2000

IIM Ahmedabad

lps database
LPS Database
  • LPS number increases in future
  • Coverage of gases: CO2 and SO2
  • Indianised emission coefficients (to the extent possible)
  • Projections up to year 2030

IIM Ahmedabad

lps coverage for india

Sector

Sub

-

sectors

LPS covered

2000

2010

2020

2030

Energy

Power (coal & Oil)

82

111

131

150

Power (natural gas)

12

17

20

23

Steel

10

16

22

28

Cement *

85

98

110

123

Fertilizer

31

41

52

62

Paper

33

38

43

48

Sugar

28

28

29

30

Caustic Soda

19

21

23

26

Industrial

H

SO

manufacturing

63

64

66

68

2

4

processes

Aluminium (Al)

3

4

5

5

Copper ore smelting (Cu)

8

9

10

11

Lead ore smelting (Pb)

5

6

7

8

Zinc ore sm

elting (Zn)

3

4

5

5

Total

382

457

523

587

LPS Coverage for India

IIM Ahmedabad

lps locations
LPS Locations

2000

2030

IIM Ahmedabad

database generation
Database Generation
  • Sectoral demand projections on the basis of macro-economic parameters
    • Thirty year time series GDP
    • Government projections
    • Expert opinion
  • LPS demand on the basis of sectoral demand elasticity and past production trends
  • Demand over and above LPS capacities assigned to Area Sources

IIM Ahmedabad

co 2 from lps
CO2 from LPS

2000

2030

IIM Ahmedabad

so 2 from lps
SO2 from LPS

2000

2030

IIM Ahmedabad

gujarat state ahmedabad district

Ahmedabad

Municipal area

Ahmedabad District

Gujarat

Gujarat State & Ahmedabad District

IIM Ahmedabad

ahmedabad district

730 E

71.60 E

Longitude

23.40 N

Ahmedabad

Municipal Area

Dehgam

Viramgam

Daskroi

Sanand

Ahmedabad

City

Latitude

Dholka

Dhandhuka

21.90 N

Ahmedabad District

IIM Ahmedabad

lps coverage for ahmedabad

Industry

LPS Covered

Major Emissions

66

CO

, SO

, NO

Chemicals Manufacturing

2

2

x

Dyes M

anufacturing

25

CO

, SO

2

2

Others Industries

9

CO

, SO

2

2

Pharmaceuticals

2

CO

, SO

, NO

2

2

x

Steel Foundries and Fabrication

94

CO

, SO

2

2

Textile Mills

4

CO

, SO

, NO

2

2

x

Textile Processing and Dyeing

17

CO

, SO

2

2

LPS Coverage for Ahmedabad

IIM Ahmedabad

co 2 emissions

2000

2030

CO2 Emissions

IIM Ahmedabad

so 2 emissions

2000

2030

SO2 Emissions

IIM Ahmedabad

slide35

Conclusions

  • Disjoint between future GHG and local emissions
  • LPS emissions continue to dominate national emissions, thus providing focused mitigation possibilities
  • AIM/Local a suitable tool for District/City level emission analysis

IIM Ahmedabad