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Lars Hoelgaard Deputy Director General

Pig sector outlook – a Commission perspective Pigmeat reflection day, Brussels, 3 December 2010. Lars Hoelgaard Deputy Director General. Global players in the pigmeat sector. EU Trade of Pig Meat. Stable pig production in the EU. Real ↑. Dollar ↓. Per ton. Per 100 kg.

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Lars Hoelgaard Deputy Director General

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  1. Pig sector outlook – a Commission perspective Pigmeat reflection day, Brussels, 3 December 2010 Lars Hoelgaard Deputy Director General

  2. Pigmeat reflection day, 3.12.2010

  3. Global players in the pigmeat sector Pigmeat reflection day, 3.12.2010

  4. EU Trade of Pig Meat Pigmeat reflection day, 3.12.2010

  5. Stable pig production in the EU Pigmeat reflection day, 3.12.2010

  6. Pigmeat reflection day, 3.12.2010

  7. Real ↑ Dollar ↓ Pigmeat reflection day, 3.12.2010

  8. Per ton Per 100 kg Pigmeat reflection day, 3.12.2010

  9. Instruments available in the single CMO • Release Intervention stocks • 2,8 million tonnes barley will be sold • Export refunds? • EU is the biggest pigmeat exporter worldwide (~200.000 tonnes/ month) • EU price close to world market price • Private storage? • Meat will be back on the market when prices recover in spring Pigmeat reflection day, 3.12.2010

  10. Slow, limited, asymmetric price transmission along the food supply chain FOOD PRICE CRISIS PRODUCERS’ LAG RETAILERS’ LAG STABILISATION Food producer prices Agricultural commodity prices Food consumer prices Overall inflation (HICP) Source: European Commission – DG Economic and Financial Affairs, based on Eurostat data Pigmeat reflection day, 3.12.2010

  11. Medium-term forecast for EU pigmeat marketEU production, consumption, trade and intervention stocks (million tonnes cwe) Pigmeat reflection day, 3.12.2010

  12. What policy instruments? Better targeted to objectives Based on two pillar structure Direct payments Market measures Rural development • Redistribution • Better targeting • Redesign: • Greening of direct payments • Capping of payments • Small farmers support • Areas with specific natural constraints • Market orientation • Streamline and simplification • Improved food chain functioning • Environment, climate change and innovation as guideline themes • Improved coherence with other EU policies • More effective delivery mechanisms • Address risk management • New distribution criteria Pigmeat reflection day, 3.12.2010

  13. Some highlights on the pigmeat market • Major structural adjustments due to reduced profitability: • Effect of feed prices particularly cereals + soy • Land, capital and environmental constraints • Slower pace on increasing domestic production • Expected slow decrease in pork exports: more international competition • Projected moderate consumption to outpace some production increase Pigmeat reflection day, 3.12.2010

  14. Thanks for your attention Pigmeat reflection day, 3.12.2010

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