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“Do you believe in global warming?” (Jane Doe, OU Sophomore, Elk City, OK). where believe is defined as. 1. to accept as true or as speaking or convey the truth 2. to have religious faith, to believe in God

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do you believe in global warming jane doe ou sophomore elk city ok

“Do you believe in global warming?”(Jane Doe, OU Sophomore, Elk City, OK)

where believeis definedas

1. to accept as true or as speaking or convey

the truth

2. to have religious faith, to believe in God

3. to think, to suppose (“I believe it’s raining”)

[Oxford American Dictionary, 1979]

global warming

GLOBALWARMING

A Planetary Scale issue – involving transfers of radiation between the Sun, Earth, and Space

Let’s assume Earth has no atmosphere … solar radiation is absorbed by Earth’s surface (egg shell thin) and immediately returned to Space as terrestrial radiation … no heat storage occurs

The Earth’s surface must have a temperature that supports this radiation balance

That temperature is -18˚C (0˚F) … whereas the present global average surface

air temperature is +15˚C (59˚F)

The difference of +33˚C (+59˚F) is due to the NATURAL GREENHOUSE EFFECT

slide4

CHANGES IN GREENHOUSE GASES

(over last 10,000 years)

CARBON

DIOXIDE

Red = from atmospheric samples

OtherColors = from ice cores

METHANE

NITROUS

OXIDE

slide5

COOLING

WARMING

slide6

GLOBAL WARMING

Circles = yearly values

Black curves = decadal averaged

Blue areas = uncertainty intervals

Red sea level = from satellites

slide7

SIMULATED VERSUS OBSERVED TEMPERATURE

(1900-2000)

Black Line

Decadal averages of observations

Red Area

Range of model simulations including natural and anthropogenic forcings

Blue Area

Range of model simulations using natural forcings

slide8

SIMULATIONS FOR 2000-2100

}

DifferentEmission Scenarios

regional climate variability

REGIONAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY

With possible exception of high latitudes (say, beyond 60˚), most of what can happen already has occurred.

Global warming will be manifest regionally as changes in

FREQUENCYDURATION

INTENSITYSEASONALITY

of regional climate phenomena with which we have familiarity ALREADY

slide12

FIRST IPCC (1990) SIMULATIONS

JUNE-AUGUST TEMPERATURE

JUNE-AUGUST PRECIPITATION

FOR CO2DOUBLING

disappearance of lake chad
DISAPPEARANCE OF LAKE CHAD

1963

1973

2001

1987

From: A. Gore, AnInconvenientTruth, 2006

slide15

Journal of Climate (August 15, 2006)

Article: pp. 3989–4008

Detection and Attribution of Twentieth-Century Northern and Southern African Rainfall Change

Martin Hoerling

NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado

James Hurrell

National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado

Jon Eischeid

NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado

Adam Phillips

National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado

ABSTRACT

The spatial patterns, time history, and seasonality of African rainfall trends since 1950 are found to be deducible from the atmosphere’s response to the known variations of global sea surface temperatures (SSTs). The robustness of the oceanic impact is confirmed through the diagnosis of 80 separate 50-yr climate simulations across a suite of atmospheric general circulation models. Drying over the Sahel during boreal summer is shown to be a response to warming of the South Atlantic relative to North Atlantic SST, with the ensuing anomalous interhemispheric SST contrast favoring a more southern position of the Atlantic intertropical convergence zone. Southern African drying during austral summer is shown to be a response to Indian Ocean warming, with enhanced atmospheric convection over those warm waters driving subsidence drying over Africa.

The ensemble of greenhouse-gas-forced experiments, conducted as part of the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, fails to simulate the pattern or amplitude of the twentieth-century African drying, indicating that the drought conditions were likely of natural origin. For the period 2000–49, the ensemble mean of the forced experiments yields a wet signal over the Sahel and a dry signal over southern Africa. These rainfall changes are physically consistent withaprojected warming of the North Atlantic Ocean compared with the South Atlantic Ocean, and a further warming of the Indian Ocean. However, considerable spread exists among the individual members of the multimodel ensemble.

slide16

KYOTO PROTOCOL

Sense of Senate Resolution

1997

u s engagement since kyoto
U.S. “ENGAGEMENT” SINCE KYOTO

1. Strong scientific contributions by individuals and groups, including by civil servants in federal agencies and university scientists receiving federal funding.

2. Manifest in recently released Fourth Assessment of IPCC … which was acknowledged by NOAA Administrator (political appointee).

BUT

3. U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) produced little more than a few “Assessment Reports”.

4. On the policy, technology, alternative energy, and regulatory sides ….?

5. PEW Foundation survey identified U.S. lack of response to global warming as second reason (after Iraq War) for declining U.S. respect in World.

slide19

“Do you believe in ….?”

Conservative

Christianity

Evolution

Global Warming

Stem Cell Research

do you believe that

“Do you believe that…?”

U.S. Scientists have played their part thus far?

U.S. politicians and diplomats now have important leadership roles to play … to the point of statesmanship?