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Macroeconomic Environment

U.S. and World Cotton Economic Outlook June 2009 Prepared by: Economic Services National Cotton Council. Macroeconomic Environment. U.S. Real GDP Growth. U.S. Crude Oil Spot Price. U.S. #2 Diesel, Gulf Coast. Civilian Unemployment Rate. U.S. Federal Budget Surplus (CBO Projection).

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Macroeconomic Environment

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  1. U.S. and World Cotton Economic OutlookJune 2009Prepared by:Economic ServicesNational Cotton Council

  2. Macroeconomic Environment

  3. U.S. Real GDP Growth

  4. U.S. Crude Oil Spot Price

  5. U.S. #2 Diesel, Gulf Coast

  6. Civilian Unemployment Rate

  7. U.S. Federal Budget Surplus(CBO Projection)

  8. CBO Ag Baseline Spending

  9. Real GDP Growthin Selected Countries

  10. Euro(Currency per U.S. Dollar)

  11. Real Exchange Rate Index (Other Important Trade Partners, Source – Federal Reserve )

  12. Ag Prices Received Index

  13. U.S. Net Farm Income

  14. U.S. Cotton Supply

  15. December Cotton Futures Cents per Pound

  16. December Corn Futures Cents per Bushel

  17. November Soybean Futures Cents per Bushel

  18. 2009 U.S. Cotton Plantings Thousand Acres 2008 2009 % Actual Estimated* Change Southeast 1,923 1,880 -2.2 Mid-South 1,876 1,675 -10.7 Southwest 5,205 5,115 -1.7 West 292 235 -19.5 ALL UPLAND9,2968,905- 4.2 ALL ELS 174 149 -14.1 ALL COTTON 9,470 9,054 - 4.4 *2009 NASS June Acreage Report

  19. 2009 U.S. Cotton Plantings Thousand Hectares 2008 2009 % Actual Estimated* Change Southeast 778 761 -2.2 Mid-South 759 678 -10.7 Southwest 2,106 2,070 -1.7 West 118 95 -19.5 ALL UPLAND3,7623,604- 4.2 ALL ELS 70 60 -14.1 ALL COTTON 3,832 3,664 - 4.4 *2009 NASS June Acreage Report

  20. U.S. Cotton Production

  21. U.S. Cotton Supply

  22. U.S. Cotton Demand

  23. Net Domestic Fiber Consumption

  24. Cotton’s Share of Fiber Consumption

  25. Components of Retail Cotton Consumption

  26. U.S. Cotton Textile Imports

  27. U.S. Cotton Content in Textile Imports

  28. U.S. Trade With Mexico

  29. U.S. Trade with CBI

  30. U.S. Imports from China

  31. U.S. Cotton Mill Use(Calendar Year, Million Bales)

  32. U.S. Cotton Mill Use(Crop Year, Million Bales)

  33. U.S. Cotton Production & Use

  34. The World Market & U.S. Cotton Exports

  35. China Cotton Supply & Use

  36. World Cotton Production

  37. World Fiber Mill Use *PCI

  38. Fiber Prices

  39. World Cotton Mill Use

  40. Foreign Cotton Production & Use

  41. U.S. Cotton Exports

  42. World Cotton Ending Stocks

  43. Cotton Stocks/Use(World less China)

  44. U.S. Supply and DemandMillion Bales Beginning Stocks 10.04 6.60 Production 12.82 13.25 Imports 0.01 0.01 Total Supply 22.86 19.86 Mill Use 3.55 3.50 Exports 12.70 10.80 Total Offtake 16.25 14.30 Ending Stocks 6.60 5.60 Stocks-to-Use Ratio 40.6% 39.2% 2008/09 2009/10

  45. U.S. Supply and DemandMillion Metric Tons Beginning Stocks 2.19 1.44 Production 2.79 2.89 Imports 0.00 0.00 Total Supply 4.98 4.33 Mill Use 0.77 0.76 Exports 2.77 2.35 Total Offtake 3.54 3.12 Ending Stocks 1.44 1.22 Stocks-to-Use Ratio 40.6% 39.2% 2008/09 2009/10

  46. World Supply and DemandMillion Bales 2008/09 2009/10 Beginning Stocks 62.08 61.16 Production 107.09 106.26 Imports 28.34 32.65 Mill Use 110.50 113.42 Exports 28.34 32.65 Ending Stocks 61.16 56.54 Stocks-to-Use Ratio 55.3% 49.9%

  47. World Supply and DemandMillion Metric Tons 2008/09 2009/10 Beginning Stocks 13.53 13.32 Production 23.33 23.15 Imports 6.17 7.11 Mill Use 24.07 24.71 Exports 6.17 7.11 Ending Stocks 13.32 12.32 Stocks-to-Use Ratio 55.3% 49.9%

  48. Producers Cooperatives Warehouses Manufacturers Ginners Cottonseed Merchants

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