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U.S. and World Cotton Economic Outlook May 2011 Prepared by: Economic Services National Cotton Council. Macroeconomic Environment. U.S. Real GDP Growth. U.S. Crude Oil Spot Price. U.S. #2 Diesel, Gulf Coast. Civilian Unemployment Rate. U.S. Federal Budget Surplus (CBO Projection).
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U.S. and World Cotton Economic OutlookMay 2011Prepared by:Economic ServicesNational Cotton Council
Real Exchange Rate Index (Other Important Trade Partners, Source – Federal Reserve )
December Cotton Futures Cents per Pound
December Corn Futures Cents per Bushel
November Soybean Futures Cents per Bushel
2011 U.S. Cotton Plantings Thousand Acres 2010 2011 % Actual Intended* Change Southeast 2,597 3,095 19.2 Mid-South 1,920 2,280 18.8 Southwest 5,886 6,488 10.2 West 366 450 23.0 ALL UPLAND10,76912,31314.3 ALL ELS 204 253 23.7 ALL COTTON 10,973 12,566 14.5 *2011 USDA Prospective Plantings
2011 U.S. Cotton Plantings Thousand Hectares 2010 2011 % Actual Intended* Change Southeast 1,051 1,253 19.2 Mid-South 777 923 18.8 Southwest 2,382 2,626 10.2 West 148 182 23.0 ALL UPLAND4,3584,98314.3 ALL ELS 83 102 23.7 ALL COTTON 4,441 5,085 14.5 *2011 USDA Prospective Plantings
World Fiber Mill Use *PCI
U.S. Supply and DemandMillion Bales Beginning Stocks 2.95 1.75 Production 18.10 18.00 Imports 0.01 0.01 Total Supply 20.06 19.76 Mill Use 3.80 3.80 Exports 15.50 13.50 Total Offtake 19.30 17.30 Ending Stocks 1.75 2.50 Stocks-to-Use Ratio 9.1% 14.5% 2010/11e 2011/12p
U.S. Supply and DemandMillion Metric Tons Beginning Stocks 0.64 0.38 Production 3.94 3.92 Imports 0.00 0.00 Total Supply 4.59 4.31 Mill Use 0.83 0.83 Exports 3.38 2.94 Total Offtake 4.20 3.77 Ending Stocks 0.38 0.54 Stocks-to-Use Ratio 9.1% 14.5% 2010/11e 2011/12p
World Supply and DemandMillion Bales 2010/11e 2011/12p Beginning Stocks 44.28 42.52 Production 114.60 124.72 Imports 37.00 39.86 Mill Use 116.51 119.50 Exports 37.00 39.87 Ending Stocks 42.52 47.93 Stocks-to-Use Ratio 36.5% 40.1%
World Supply and DemandMillion Metric Tons 2010/11e 2011/12p Beginning Stocks 9.65 9.26 Production 24.97 27.17 Imports 8.06 8.68 Mill Use 25.38 26.03 Exports 8.06 8.69 Ending Stocks 9.26 10.44 Stocks-to-Use Ratio 36.5% 40.1%
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