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Recharge Policy Analysis

Recharge Policy Analysis. Money, Facilities and Choices in the Tucson Active Management Area Kenneth Seasholes Assistant Area Director Tucson Active Management Area Arizona Department of Water Resources 11 th Biennial Symposium on Groundwater Recharge June 5, 2003 Tempe, Arizona. Ground.

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Recharge Policy Analysis

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  1. Recharge Policy Analysis Money, Facilities and Choices in the Tucson Active Management Area Kenneth Seasholes Assistant Area Director Tucson Active Management Area Arizona Department of Water Resources 11th Biennial Symposium on Groundwater Recharge June 5, 2003 Tempe, Arizona

  2. Ground water flow Operational GSFs Operational USFs Central Arizona Project Service Areas/CC&Ns Recharge Planning CAP Recharge Facilities Kai-Red Rock CMID Lower Santa Cruz USF BKW Avra USF Clearwater Pima Mine Rd.

  3. Operational GSFs Operational USFs Central Arizona Project Service Areas/CC&Ns AVID Proposal CAP Recharge Facilities • AWBA would indirectly finance a CAP pipeline to the AVID GSF • Mutually beneficial financing • Additional facility capacity • Potential on-site recovery AVID

  4. Operational GSFs Operational USFs Central Arizona Project Service Areas/CC&Ns AVID Proposal CAP Recharge Facilities Do we need more capacity? Are we going to meet our "firming" goal? How are credits going to be recovered?

  5. Analysis • 1998 Regional Recharge Plan • Much of the report remains valid and useful • Scenarios are outdated and inadequate • Updated analysis • More extensive physical & financial variables • Emphasis on AWBA activities

  6. Property Tax Groundwater Demand Withdrawal Fee Available CAP Water Cost of Water General Fund $21/AF Available Capacity Recharge Facilities Facility Fees Credits Analysis Policy Variables • Physical • Facility capacity • CAP availability CAWCD • Revenues • Tax • Fee • Fund AWBA • Expenses • Water • Fee GSF • Credits • Firming • Water Management • Other USF USF

  7. Analysis =IF(N3-$F$14<=2001,($I$14*1000)/$F$14,0)

  8. Analytic Tool • Series of linked, interactive spreadsheets • DEMAND by sector & provider • USF & GSF capacities & fees • AWBA funding • & storage • STORAGE by facility, • storer & year • SUMMARY

  9. Time Sectors % CAP Analytic Tool- Demand

  10. Facilities Capacity Cost Analytic Tool- USFs

  11. Facilities Year Storers Analytic Tool- Storage

  12. Analytic Tool- AWBA • “Baseline” Assumptions • Cost of water: CAP advisory • rates through 2007, 3% growth • thereafter • Ad valorem tax: $1.6 million • base, 3% annual growth • Facility charge: flat $12, • based on average cost at TAMA • USFs and 2% GSF

  13. Scenario Testing • Hypothetical Example • Lowering the cost of credits through buy-down • of the $21/AF “Baseline” 98% USF

  14. Scenario Testing 80% USF; 20% GSF with $4/AF buy-down “Baseline” 98% USF

  15. Scenario Testing 30% USF; 70% GSF with $4/AF buy-down 80% USF; 20% GSF with $4/AF buy-down “Baseline” 98% USF

  16. Issue Identification • The Tucson AMA’s firming target will not be met with projected revenue • 200,000+ AF shortfall • (30% below target) • Shortfall reflects • revenue constraints • and cost of credits • Will likely result in • future groundwater • mining

  17. Conclusions • Recharge policy analysis is complex and multivariate • Decision-support tools can provide insight and guidance • The water management implications of recharge warrant rigorous analysis

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