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Weather-Climate Linkage

This document discusses advancements in NOAA's operational numerical guidance systems, focusing on extending weather forecasts to Day 10. It outlines various modeling approaches, including the Global Ensemble Forecast System and the North American Ensemble Forecast System, as well as the importance of probabilistic forecasting in weather hazard assessments. Key initiatives bridge gaps in weather predictions, addressing questions related to forecast format, technique consistency, and the potential for improved hazard identification. This initiative aims to enhance decision-making for public safety and various sectors affected by weather events.

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Weather-Climate Linkage

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  1. Weather-Climate Linkage Dave Novak (WPC) & Jon Gottschalck (CPC) January 21, 2014

  2. Seamless Suite of NOAA Operational Numerical Guidance Systems Outlook Guidance Threats Assessments Forecast Lead Time Forecasts Watches Warnings & Alert Coordination Benefits Forecast Uncertainty Years Seasons Weather – Climate Linkage Months • Climate Forecast System • North American Ensemble Forecast System 2 Week • Global Ensemble Forecast System • Global Forecast System • Global Dust 1 Week • Short-Range Ensemble Forecast • Wave Ensemble Days • Waves • Global Ocean • North American Mesoscale • Bays • Space Weather • Fire Wx • Regional Hurricane • (HWRF & GFDL) • Storm Surge Hours • Rapid Refresh • Air Quality Minutes • Dispersion (smoke) • Tsunami • Whole Atmosphere • HRRR • NMME • NLDAS Health Aviation Recreation Ecosystem Agriculture Commerce Hydropower Environment Maritime Fire Weather Life & Property Energy Planning Reservoir Control Emergency Mgmt Space Operations 3

  3. Initiatives to Bridge the Gap 1 Month Day 7 Week 3&4

  4. Hazards ? NEW Day 6-10 ? NEW NEW NEW NEW NEW NEW

  5. Extend Weather Forecasts to Day 10 NWS team being chartered to explore extending weather forecasts to Day 10 Enablers: • Model improvements (GEFS anomaly cor > 0.6 to 9.4 days) • Multimodel ensembles (NAEFS – 9.8 days) • GEFS Reforecasts • NWS Blender Project – sophisticated post processing Outstanding Questions: • What elements? • What format (deterministic vs. probabilistic)? • Role of NWS operational units? • What techniques (dynamic models / statistical approach)?

  6. Extend Weather Forecasts to Day 10 • Forecast format and forecast process for Days 8-10 may be different • Probabilistic format • Mix of dynamical ensemble, and statistical approaches • Ongoing CPC/WPC discussions on teleconnections • For example, when • MJO phase 3 and positive ENSO = enhanced probability of warm in the Northeast US • MJO phase 7 = increased likelihood of Atmospheric Rivers in the west

  7. Use Ensemble Cluster Information Mine ensemble for common weather scenarios 42% Chance East Coast Heat Wave 34% Chance Seasonal 26% Chance Wet ECMWF clusters of 500-hPa heights and anomalies

  8. Probabilistic Hazards Enablers: • NCEP Reforecast dataset Outstanding Questions: • What elements and thresholds? • Consistency with Day 8-10 daily forecasts? • Consistency with official week-2 hazards? • Distinction between hazards and extremes?

  9. Extreme Forecast Index EFI concept complementary to probabilistic hazards Identify “extreme” events relative to model climatology. Requires robust reforecast dataset. EFI values of >.9 signal potential for extreme event, relative to the model climatology

  10. Week 3 & 4 Enablers: • NCEP CFS • Statistical tools Outstanding Questions: • Useful Skill? • What is the final product format?

  11. Hazards ? NEW Day 6-10 ? NEW NEW NEW NEW NEW NEW

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