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Is Everybody Really Leaving Michigan?. Presentation for the Michigan Chamber of Commerce September 27, 2007 Kenneth Darga, State Demographer Department of History, Arts, and Libraries. Michigan’s migration patterns have some negative aspects and some positive aspects.

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is everybody really leaving michigan
Is Everybody Really Leaving Michigan?
  • Presentation for the Michigan Chamber of Commerce
  • September 27, 2007
  • Kenneth Darga, State Demographer
  • Department of History, Arts, and Libraries
slide2
Michigan’s migration patterns have some negative aspects and some positive aspects.
    • The negative aspects of Michigan’s migration patterns are often overstated.
    • The positive aspects are often overlooked.
the bad news
The Bad News:
  • The number of people moving out of Michigan is larger than the number of people moving into Michigan.
domestic migration ratios out in
Domestic Migration Ratios ( OUT : IN )
  • 66 : 34 United Van Lines
  • 58 : 42 Internal Revenue Service
  • 58 : 42 American Community Survey
    • 66 : 34 ACS (age 55-64)
    • 52 : 48 ACS (age 27-34)
six lowest rates of out migration in the u s for 2004 05
Six Lowest Rates of Out-Migration in the U.S. for 2004-05
  • 1.8% Texas
  • 1.8% Wisconsin
  • 1.8% Pennsylvania
  • 1.9% Michigan
  • 2.0% Ohio
  • 2.1% California
slide14
In 2005, Michigan had the nation’s second lowest rate of outmigration (behind Texas) for persons age 27-34
rankings of michigan s out migration rates by age 2000 05
Rankings of Michigan’s Out-Migration Rates by Age, 2000-05
  • Age 1 – 5 #1 Age 35 – 44 #1
  • Age 6 – 12 #2 Age 45 – 54 #6
  • Age13 – 17 #1 Age 55 – 54 #12
  • Age 18 – 21 #3 Age 55 – 64 #29
  • Age 22 – 26 #3 Age 65 – 74 #19
  • Age 27 – 34 #1
slide17
The only states with lower domestic in-migration than Michigan are New York and California.
out migration rates for labor force participants age 22 34 2000 2005
Out-Migration Rates for Labor Force Participants Age 22-34, 2000-2005

Mich.U.S.

No Degree 2.1% 3.5%

Associate’s Degree 1.5% 3.8%

Bachelor’s Degree 5.8% 7.0%

Master’s Degree 5.8% 7.7%

Professional Degree 6.1% 8.8%

Doctoral Degree 9.2% 13.3%

All Levels of Education 3.1% 4.6%

All Degrees 4.9% 6.5%

Bachelor’s and Higher 5.9% 7.3%

estimated average migration flows 2000 2005
Estimated Average Migration Flows, 2000-2005

College graduates age 22-34 in labor force:

  • 24,248 out-flow to other states
  • 24,897 in-flow from other states
  • 4,616 in-flow from other countries
  • 49 : 51 ratio of domestic out-movers to

domestic in-movers

slide21
Our recent unemployment statistics have negative aspects, but those aspects are often overstated.
  • Positive aspects of our recent unemployment statistics are often overlooked.
slide23
Michigan’s estimated unemployment rate in 2006 was 6.9%.
  • The average from 1976 to 2006 is just over 7.9%.
slide24
WV AK MI LA OR MS NJ

NE HI IA MN NH ND OK SD WY

state unemployment rates in 2006 relative to michigan
State Unemployment Rates in 2006Relative to Michigan

# of States % of Pop.

Within 2 pct-pt: 16 40%

Including: Ohio, Indiana, Texas, and California

Within 3 pct-pt: 35 81%

Including: Wisconsin, Illinois, Minnesota,

New York, North Carolina, Georgia

overlooked aspects of michigan s unemployment rate
Overlooked aspects of Michigan’s unemployment rate:
  • It has not gone up since 2003.
  • It is lower than Michigan’s average from 1976 to 2006.
  • It is a little bit closer than usual to the lowest rate in the nation.
slide28
That does not change the fact that the estimated unemployment rate for Michigan is:
  • Higher than anyone wants it to be.
  • Higher than in any other state.

But it does help explain why Michigan’s migration patterns are better than they are usually portrayed to be in the media.

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