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WTO Doha Round: Crucial Year - 2007. May 18, 2007 Junko Kawauchi, JISA. Economic Effects by Success of Doha Round. Effect by overall elimination of tariff: US$ 67 B (by OECD)

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slide1

WTO Doha Round:Crucial Year - 2007

May 18, 2007

Junko Kawauchi, JISA

slide2

Economic Effects by Success of Doha Round

  • Effect by overall elimination of tariff: US$ 67 B(by OECD)
  • Effect by elimination of tariff, elimination/reduction of agricultural subsidies for 10 years - US$ 275 B(by World Bank)(estimated in 2015, world income rate – 0.7%, World Income would be about US$ 40 T)
  • Effect by success of Doha Round including liberalization of service sector –US$ 2.3 T
  • (byResearch Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry)
  • *Service Sector is important!
  • Source: METI
slide3

Doha Round – Time Series

Informal TNC meeting

Nov. 2006

6th

Ministerial Conference

(Hong Kong)

Dec. 2005

“HK Declaration”

4th Ministerial

Conference

(Doha)

Nov. 2001

5th

Ministerial

Conference

(Cancun)

Sep. 2003

General Council

Framework Agreement Jul. 2004

WTO Informal Ministerial Meeting (Davos)

Jan. 27, 2007

Round resumed

Round suspended

Jul. 2006

2008

2003

2006

2002

2004

2005

2007

US Midterm Election Nov. 2006

End of June, 2007

Doha Round set up

Negotiations broke down

Negotiations resumed

at General Council

February

(2007 Major Events)

Jan. 31 US President Bush Called for TPA extension

Mar. 20-21 G33 Ministerial meeting (Jakarta)

Apr. 11-15 G6 Ministerial Meeting (New Delhi)

May 15-16 OECD Ministerial Council Meeting (Paris)

June 6-8 G8 Summit (Heiligendamm, Germany)

US President’s

TPA Deadline

Source: METI

slide4

Major Subjects & Player Position

Japan

Major 3 Subjects of the Round

1) Agricultural market access- Lowering tariffs on agricultural products

2) Domestic support for Agriculture sector- Substantial reductions of subsidies

3) NAMA- Lowering tariffs on non-agricultural goods

EU

Request further access to agricultural market

Request further access to non-agri. market

Reduction of support for domestic agri. sector

Request further access to agricultural market

Request further access to agri. / non-agri. market

US

G20

(Brazil / India)

Reduction of support for domestic agri. sector

Source: METI

3

slide5

Triangle Deadlock

Agricultural

Market Access

Defense

Offense

Japan (G10)

EU

US

G20

Deadlock

Couldn’t agree at

the Ministerial Meeting

in July 2006

Support for

Domestic Agriculture

Non-Agricultural

Market Access

Defense

Offense

Offense

Defense

US

Australia

EU

G20

Developing Countries

Developed Countries

Source: METI

4

negotiations resumed in 2007
Negotiations Resumed in 2007
  • Jan. 27 Informal Ministerial Meeting in Davos
  • Jan. 31 Informal TNC meeting

– formally resumed the Round

  • Jan. 31 US President Bush called for TPA extension
  • Mar. 20-21 G33 Ministerial meeting (Jakarta)
  • Apr. 11-15 G6 Ministerial Meeting (New Delhi)
  • May 15-16 OECD Ministerial Council Meeting (Paris)
  • June 6-8 G8 Summit (Heiligendamm, Germany)
  • End of June Deadline of US President’s TPA

- Will it be extended??

  • End of 2007 New Target to conclude the Round?
non agricultural market access nama
Non Agricultural Market Access - NAMA
  • Reduction of tariffs:
    • Need to reduce tariffs mainly of developing countries
    • Developed countries’ tariffs on some goods are also high
    • Method to reduce tariffs: “Swiss Formula Coefficient”
  • Elimination of Non-Tariff Barriers
gats talks services
GATS Talks (Services)
  • Prepare for break through in Agriculture / NAMA sector
  • Plurilateral negotiation started
  • Computer and Related Services (CRS)
    • Not many difficult regulations compared to other sectors
    • CPC 84 “2 Digit” Commitments: request full commitment for Mode 1-3
    • “Understanding on the scope of coverage of CPC 84 “
new framework for service negotiations
New Framework for Service Negotiations
  • Service sector is most important
    • If Agriculture / NAMA negotiations take too long to be agreed,

- Another method/framework for services liberalizationnegotiations needs to be considered

ie. Only by ICT service sector plurilateral requesting countries+

key for successful doha round
Key for Successful Doha Round
  • Appropriate political decision by leaders of major players

- Renewal of US President’s TPAis indispensable

  • Strong voice from global industry

- WITSA represents 73 industries in the world

  • Developing countries’ understanding for trade liberalization

- Share success stories / promote communication

crucial year 2007
Crucial Year 2007

New Timeframe of the Doha Round negotiations needs to be shown:

- New Target - the end of 2007 possible?

Director General Pascal Lamy said,“a successful outcome to the Round is possible, even in the small amount of time remaining until the end of this year.”

We need to recognize its importance and urge governments to conclude the Round

thank you

Thank you

Junko Kawauchi, JISA

kawauchi@jisa.or.jp