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Air Armament Center. Integrated Program Assessment Status 28 February 2008. Mr. Deryl Israel AAC/EN. DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A : Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. . Outline. Integrated Assessment (IA) Update IA purpose & background

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integrated program assessment status 28 february 2008

Air Armament Center

Integrated Program Assessment Status 28 February 2008

Mr. Deryl Israel

AAC/EN

DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A: Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

outline
Outline
  • Integrated Assessment (IA) Update
    • IA purpose & background
    • Progress since 2007 Industry Day
  • Program Sufficiency Review (PSR) summary
    • FY06-07 activity & results
    • Lessons learned: How to do better SRs
    • Lessons learned: How to build better programs
  • Way Ahead: Plans for 2008
assessment purpose background
Assessment Purpose & Background
  • Historically, Eglin programs have
    • Cost overruns of 15%-30%
    • Schedule slips of 6-12 months
  • Since FY06, deployed and integrated a suite of assessments to execute AAC’s vision--War-winning capabilities… on time, on cost
  • Intent is to create and maintain a high-confidence portfolio
high confidence programs key characteristics
High-Confidence ProgramsKey Characteristics*
  • Good “Should-Cost” Estimate
  • Budget/Cost Estimate alignment
  • Approved time-phased CDD requirements
  • Program office resourcing
  • Requirements stability
  • Budget stability mechanism
  • Incremental program plan
  • Short-duration capability release/production schedules
  • SDD phase no greater than 6 years
  • Tech / manufacturing maturity assessment thresholds met
  • Integrated sustainment and depot strategy
  • Realistic test planning, Approved IOT&E plan
  • Life-cycle acquisition strategy—time certain success incentive
  • Executing according to “plan”
  • Probability of Program Success (PoPS) measures

* As Defined by D&SWS design teams

afpeo wp policy 23 may 07 aac integrated assessments
AFPEO/WP Policy, 23 May 07AAC Integrated Assessments
  • These assessments will help us collaborate with our government stakeholders and industry to improve our acquisition processes and align expectations.
  • AAC acquisition commanders/directors must effectively employ the assessments during program planning and execution
  • Assessment leaders will provide results to the PEO/Deputy PEO, Weapons; commanders or directors of appropriate AAC line units; and the AAC Center Senior Functional owning the assessment being reported.
spiral 2 assessment engine

Logistics

Health

Assessment

(LHA)

INPUTS (FROM STD AAC PRODUCTS)

Rollout Spring ‘08

Spiral 2 Assessment Engine

Logistics

Health

Assessment

(LHA)

Technology

Readiness &

Integration

Assessment

(TRA)

Systems

Engineering

Assessment

(SEA)

Probability

of Program

Success

(PoPS)

Program

Sufficiency

Review

(PSR)

Probability

of Program

Success

(PoPS)

Manufacturing

Readiness

Assessment

(MRA)

Cost

Sufficiency

Review

(CSR)

aac assessment life cycle

TRA/

MRA’

MRA/

TRA’

CSR

CSR

SEA

SEA

LHA

PoPS

PoPS

PSR

PSR

AAC Assessment Life Cycle

POM Input

MS A

MS B

MS C

Sustainment

TRA/

MRA’

MRA/

TRA’

(As Required)

TRA’/

MRA’

CSR

(As Required)

CSR

CSR

SEA

SEA

Quarterly

Updated

LHA

LHA

Updated

Monthly

PoPS

PoPS

PoPS

Updated

Monthly

PSR

PSR

PSR

(As Required)

progress since 2007 industry day
Progress Since 2007 Industry Day
  • Probability of Program Success (PoPS)
    • Consistent monthly updates in SMART
    • Internal audits drive process compliance
  • Cost Sufficiency Review
    • Earlier collaboration between staff & programs
  • Manufacturing Readiness Assessment
    • Updated guide published 30 Nov 07
  • Logistics Health Assessment
    • Increment 1 design complete; approved by AFMC/A4
    • Increment 2 design to include Pre MS B coverage
  • Sufficiency Reviews
    • Co-chaired by AAC/EN, 308th ARSW/CL
    • PoPS-based template; promotes standard work
    • Action item status reported at program reviews
fy06 aac sufficiency reviews

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

/ None / FY08 funding issue

/ None

/ None

/ None

Focused Lethality Munition

AMRAAM FY08 POM

G

Y

G

R

Wind-Correct Mun Disp-Ext Range

MALD SDD Rebaseline

Laser JDAM

AMRAAM Rebaseline

Air Superiority Target FY08 POM

Covert Resupply (COVERS)

BLU-122 Rebaseline

MALD Universal Armament Interface

ALM MK82 DIME

Very Small Munition

Tactical Laser for Airfield Defense

I-500 Penetrator

Small Concept Weapon on Predator

Adaptive Carriage Enterprise

Close Air Support Weapons

Hd Tgt Void Sens Fuze Risk Reduct

FY06 AAC Sufficiency Reviews

Current MAR/Rebaselines since SR/Notes

AIR-TO-GROUND PROGRAMS

Canceled- major redesign req’d

User requirement withdrawn

Canceled- producibility issues

AIR-TO-AIR PROGRAMS

User did not include in POM

Contract award: FY10

Plan presented at EWSR

COMBAT SUPPORT PROGRAMS

AAC/CA Approved Prod

Munition Assy Conveyor II MS C

NEW CONCEPT PROGRAMS

Concept provided to SECAF

Concept provided to AFSOC

Concept provided to ACC

Concept provided to ACC

Assessment sent to AFMC/CC

Concept provided to SOCOM

Concept provided to AFSOC

PDRR on track; JCTD starts FY08

20 (13 7 )

1 2 1 1 3 1 5 1 1 0 2 3

AAC Totals

Realistic

Realistic, Carries Risk

fy07 aac sufficiency reviews

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

/ None

/ None

/ None

/ None – Awaiting N-M decision

/ None

/ None

/ None

/ None

/ None – Awaiting N-M decision

/ None

AMSTE-JDAM

G

G

G

G

G

G

G

R

R

G

JASSM-ER Restructure

JASSM Maritime Interdiction

JDAM Production

Adv Tactical Laser Ext User Eval

Hard Tgt Void Sensing Fuze JCTD

Laser JDAM

SDB II Cost (prior to DoD CAIG rvw)

Massive Ordnance Penetrator QRC

SFW Production FY10 POM

Hard Tgt Void Sensing Fuze

AST Business Jet AoA

MALD-J SDD

AST QF-16 Update

CRIIS Rapid Prototype

Joint Threat Emitter

CRIIS Risk Reduction & SDD

P5 Combat Training System

Contract award: FY10

Automated Remote Transport Sys

FY07 AAC Sufficiency Reviews

Current MAR/Rebaselines since SR/Notes

AIR-TO-GROUND PROGRAMS

User requirement withdrawn

AIR-TO-AIR PROGRAMS

AoA eliminated concept

PDRR Contract award: FY10

COMBAT SUPPORT PROGRAMS

Prototype effort: on track

Contract award: FY08

CRIIS Test & Training

NEW CONCEPT PROGRAMS

Extended User Eval

JCTD

User requirement withdrawn

FY08 JCTD; SDD start: FY10

22 (6 16 )

3 1 4 3 2 3 1 1 1 0 1 2

AAC Totals

Realistic

Realistic, Carries Risk

slide11

AAC Portfolio Performance

Program Rebaselines: 3

slide12

AAC Portfolio Performance

Program Rebaselines: 2

lessons learned how to do better sufficiency reviews
Lessons LearnedHow to do better Sufficiency Reviews

Do:

  • Employ cross-functional approach when completing assessments
  • Use proper versions of process guides/tools (e.g. PoPS spreadsheet)
  • Conduct sufficient “deep dives” into appropriate individual assessments
  • Address weaponeering & mission planning across entire life cycle
  • Present efficient and effective test plans built with CTA & RTO inputs
  • Incentivize supplier decision processes when transitioning to production
  • Identify opportunities to validate manufacturing processes
  • Carefully select cost/schedule benchmarks
  • Conduct thorough Cost SRs prior to Program SRs
  • Use PoPS results in Program SRs to identify, communicate risks

Don’t:

  • Assume all AAC programs will be low-risk efforts
  • Over-optimistically evaluate programs
  • View Cost and Program SRs as the IG; they are home team help
assessments becoming af tools
Assessments Becoming AF Tools
  • AAC leaders assigned to AFSO21 Develop & Sustain Warfighting Systems (D&SWS) teams
    • Ms Stokley, AAC/CA, co-sponsored Life Cycle Management; Oversight/Command & Control teams
    • Ms Rutledge, 708ARSG/CL; Mr Mistretta, AAC/EN; Tech Development team
    • Mr Walley, 918ARSG/DD; Life Cycle Management team
  • Assessments endorsed by AFMC/CC; SAF/AQ to create & maintain high-confidence programs
    • PoPS: key risk management tool & metric
    • TRAs/MRAs: enable “stage gating” milestones
    • SEA: moving toward AFMC-wide application
    • LHA: Sponsored by AFMC/A4
    • Sufficiency Reviews: req’d at key decision points
    • AF-level Implementation planning now underway
building better programs attaining high confidence
Building Better ProgramsAttaining High Confidence
  • Better transition planning, decisions via technology and manufacturing assessments, PoPS, Pre-MS B risk reduction phase*
  • Iterative requirements that evolve, provide trade space prior to MS B*
  • Stable requirements for a given increment*
  • Realistic resourcing ($$ and people)*
  • Risk-based source selections*
  • Strong, consistent Systems Engineering processes*
  • Incremental development w/ discrete offramps*
  • Incentivize sustainment (affordability/availability)*
  • Proactive risk management*
  • Early, active test community involvement in test planning
  • Up-front weaponeering & mission planning—and resources

* Proposed by D&SWS design teams

way ahead 2008 plans
Way Ahead: 2008 Plans
  • Share AAC processes/lessons learned via D&SWS
    • Enable running start at other centers
    • Facilitate PoPS training at other Centers
    • Personnel from other Centers attend AAC IA events
  • Design LHA Increment 2 (supports pre-MS B efforts)
  • Align AAC IA improvements with D&SWS
    • Integrate near-term AFMC; SAF/AQ decisions
    • Minimize scrap & rework as AF standards adopted
    • Continue process standardization
  • Leverage assessments to streamline doc prep
    • Summarize key results in AAC Expectation Mgt Agreements
    • Use assessment products to streamline Life Cycle Mgt Plan creation/updates via Zero Based Documentation pilots