John Stein, Ph.D. Deputy Director Northwest Fisheries Science Center NOAA Fisheries Service

1. Response to 1999 SAB Recommendations on salmon recovery scienceA Presentation to the NOAA Science Advisory Board John Stein, Ph.D. Deputy Director Northwest Fisheries Science Center NOAA Fisheries Service August 2005

2. Outline • Purpose • Issue • Presentation of Briefing • Desired Outcomes

3. Purpose In response to SAB request: • Summarize progress made relative to 1999 recommendations for strengthening salmon science in Pacific Northwest (PNW) • Receive SAB feedback • Discuss recommendations in context current state of salmon recovery efforts

4. Summary of 1999 SAB recommendations • Build and strengthen connections with agencies outside of the core NOAA-university community • Increased emphasis on the oceanic portion of the salmon life-history • Develop and improve models to predict salmon population changes from habitat changes, ocean survival and oceanic factors. NOAA Environmental Research Laboratories should be encouraged to partner with NMFS • Prepare revised medium and long term science plan following CRI workshops. Address key sources of uncertainties and strengthen understanding of critical process and parameters in recovery of salmon in the PNW. • Links to managers and management agencies should be built explicitly into all stages of the science initiatives and salmon recovery.

5. Issue • Should any of the previous SAB recommendations continue as a high priority? • Does the SAB have additional recommendations?

6. Two specific examples Endangered Species Act (ESA) Recovery Planning Habitat/Life Cycle Models Build and strengthen connections

7. Puget Sound Technical Recovery Team

8. Build and strengthen connections The SHIRAZ model • Salmon Habitat Integrated Resource Analysis z • Developed with Ray Hilborn (U. Washington) to evaluate ESA recovery planning for salmon • Engaged state, tribes, NGOs, farm/business groups, local agencies, and watershed recovery committee • Approach being applied in Columbia River Basin

9. Increased emphasis on the oceanic portion of the salmon life-history Published NWC freshwater and ocean/estuary studies, 2000-2005

10. 14 Salmon Prediction 12 10 8 6 Hatchery coho salmon survival (%) 4 2 0 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 Standardized Copepod Anomalies Increased emphasis on the oceanic portion of the salmon life-history Management goals: • Improved Forecasts • Biophysical indices that can be used in predictors • Plankton production & composition, predator abundance • Direct measurement of juvenile abundance

11. 6 5 observed 4 model SAR (%) 3 2 1 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Year of ocean entry Scheuerell & Williams (2005) Fish. Oceanogr. Increased emphasis on the oceanic portion of the salmon life-history Management goals: • Ecosystem-Based Management • Trophic interactions and fisheries • Characterizing marine habitat variability • Improved understanding of climate-salmon linkages

12. Develop and improve models NWC salmon habitat modeling papers 2000-2005

13. Develop and improve models Model the effects of those actions … alternative restored landscapes Identify actions within strategies and place those actions on the landscape Identify restoration strategies Estimate current and historical conditions Evaluate restored landscapes – habitat conditions and fish response

14. Metapopulation Dynamics Coho Salmon Population Dynamics Harvest Management PFMC Amendment 13 e.g, Nickelson and Lawson 1998 Freshwater Habitat Marine Survival e.g, Lawson et al. 2004 Climate Patterns e.g, Logerwell et al. 2003 Develop and improve models

15. Prepare revised science plan • 2000 initial plan. 2003/2004 - NWFSC salmon science plan revised, peer/constituent-review. • Outlines 10 key research questions in 5 major areas. • Developed research plans for each of 10 research themes. • Guides focus for NWFSC salmon science.

16. Social Science Research Plan • Developed NWFSC Social Science Research Plan (peer-reviewed) • Plan covers: - Research Methods and Tools - Social Science Research Themes -In situ Conservation of Protected Species and Ecosystems -Commercial & Recreational Fisheries; - Ongoing Projects and Research Priorities

17. Links to managers and management agencies • Research conducted as a result of mandates in 2000 and 2004 Col. River Hydropower Biological Opinions • Population Identification • Viability goals (population and ESU level) • Limiting factors analyses • Monitoring and Evaluation • Workshops and public releases of documents • Habitat and life cycle modeling • Hydro effects: direct effects and on estuary • Multiple public meetings

18. Desired Outcomes • Confirmation that NOAA Fisheries achieved the intent of the 1999 recommendations • Additional recommendation from the SAB

19. Backup Slides • The following provide additional information and examples of how the NW Fisheries Science Center has responded to the 1999 recommendations by the SAB

20. Increased emphasis on the oceanic portion of the salmon life-history Juvenile salmon abundance and distribution monitoring since 1998: • exhibit patchy distributions • On any given cruise, we do 50 trawls but catch half of the fish at 2 or 3 stations. • Most of large catches are off the coast of WA

21. 245 48° N Washington 74 4 47° N 0 Columbia 250 153 Columbia Basin Fall Brights 200 61 27 Columbia Basin Fall Tules 47 North Oregon Coast Oregon 33 13 Mid Oregon Coast 125° W 124° W Increased emphasis on the oceanic portion of the salmon life-history Genetic Information Allows Spatial Tracking of Chinook ESU’s in Coastal Habitats

22. Develop and improve models Spawner density • Snohomish Basin – Evaluating recovery scenarios (here referred to as “Test Case” Historical Historical Test case Current Population productivity Test case Current path

23. Build and strengthen connections The Elwha Dam Removal project: • Starts with local stewards • Lower Elwha Tribe • National Park Service • Bureau of Reclamation

24. Prepare revised science plan • Worked closely with Recovery Science Review Panel to implement recommendations of that panel, as feasible • Have conducted workshops to address key scientific uncertainties, e.g. • Workshops on Columbia River channel improvement project (1999) • Symposium/workshop on how to evaluate ESU status of hatchery and resident fish (2005)

25. Social Science Projects • Integration of economic data and research into endangered species policymaking • Critical habitat designation for West Coast salmon and steelhead • Economic data used to estimate impacts of ESA protection for West Coast salmon and steelhead • Cost-effectiveness framework used as part of critical habitat designation regulatory process • Recovery planning for NW salmon and steelhead (ongoing) • Developing economic database of costs of conservation actions covering 4 Hs