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32 nd RAIV Hurricane Committee Bermuda Country Report. Dr. Mark Guishard Director, Bermuda Weather Service. 8 March 2010 Fairmont Hamilton Princess. Outer rain bands. 240nm. 225nm. 120nm. 90nm. Bill 2009. Fabian 2003. Forecast accuracy. CPA: 166m West 12 am Saturday (Midnight).

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32nd RAIV Hurricane CommitteeBermuda Country Report

Dr. Mark Guishard

Director,

Bermuda Weather Service

8 March 2010

Fairmont Hamilton Princess


Outer rain bands

240nm

225nm

120nm

90nm


Bill 2009

Fabian 2003


Forecast accuracy

CPA: 166m West 12 am Saturday

(Midnight)



HURRICANE BILL is a threat to Bermuda. the next 5 days

Hurricane Watch in effect

Tropical Storm Warning in effect

Current Position: 27.6N 66.3W approx. 300 nm S of Bermuda

Recent Movement: NW or 325 degrees at 16 kt

Max Sustained Winds: 100kt gusts 120kt

Closest point of approach to Bermuda within 72 hrs:

Date: 4 am Sat, Aug 22, 2009. Distance: 182 nm to the WSW as a Cat 3

HURRICANE BILL - Advisory #25Issued: 12 noon Fri, Aug 21, 2009


NOAA Wave buoy measurements the next 5 days

27.500 N 63.000 W – 306 nm SSE

1450 GMT:

Wind Direction: SEE (150 deg)

Wind Speed : 31.1 kts

Wind Gust : 38.9 kts

Wave Height : 24.3 ft (13.5 ft 24 hrs ago)

Dominant Wave Period : 12 sec

Bermuda

Bill



53 Gust 84 knots the next 5 days

Commissioner’s Point

10-minute mean winds

Tropical Storm Force Winds Duration: ~12 hours 

Max 10-minute winds at Airport:110° 40 GUSTS 52 KTS. 

Total rainfall recorded August 21st/22nd:0.55 inches.


Lessons from Bill the next 5 days

  • Hurricane Watch/Warning based on sea state as opposed to wind strength – BWS in-house discussion

  • Lack of Emergency Alert System – SMS text message alerts from cell phone provider took too long

  • Emphasis on the local conditions as opposed to the center of the Tropical System – need to de-emphasize “but it is far away!”

  • Grateful to US NOAA for the buoys to the SSE & West – request they be in service for upcoming 2010 Season

  • Causeway closures need to include a component of sea state

  • Wave & surge forecasting lacking – Bathymetry, buoy network, tide gauges needed


Any Questions? the next 5 days

Dr. Mark Guishard

Director,

Bermuda Weather Service

8 March 2010

Fairmont Hamilton Princess


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