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32 nd RAIV Hurricane Committee Bermuda Country Report

32 nd RAIV Hurricane Committee Bermuda Country Report. Dr. Mark Guishard Director, Bermuda Weather Service. 8 March 2010 Fairmont Hamilton Princess. Outer rain bands. 240nm. 225nm. 120nm. 90nm. Bill 2009. Fabian 2003. Forecast accuracy. CPA: 166m West 12 am Saturday (Midnight).

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32 nd RAIV Hurricane Committee Bermuda Country Report

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  1. 32nd RAIV Hurricane CommitteeBermuda Country Report Dr. Mark Guishard Director, Bermuda Weather Service 8 March 2010 Fairmont Hamilton Princess

  2. Outer rain bands 240nm 225nm 120nm 90nm

  3. Bill 2009 Fabian 2003

  4. Forecast accuracy CPA: 166m West 12 am Saturday (Midnight)

  5. Up to 70% chance of 34 knots (Tropical-storm force winds) in the next 5 days

  6. HURRICANE BILL is a threat to Bermuda. Hurricane Watch in effect Tropical Storm Warning in effect Current Position: 27.6N 66.3W approx. 300 nm S of Bermuda Recent Movement: NW or 325 degrees at 16 kt Max Sustained Winds: 100kt gusts 120kt Closest point of approach to Bermuda within 72 hrs: Date: 4 am Sat, Aug 22, 2009. Distance: 182 nm to the WSW as a Cat 3 HURRICANE BILL - Advisory #25Issued: 12 noon Fri, Aug 21, 2009

  7. NOAA Wave buoy measurements 27.500 N 63.000 W – 306 nm SSE 1450 GMT: Wind Direction: SEE (150 deg) Wind Speed : 31.1 kts Wind Gust : 38.9 kts Wave Height : 24.3 ft (13.5 ft 24 hrs ago) Dominant Wave Period : 12 sec Bermuda Bill

  8. 0.55 inches of rain recorded

  9. 53 Gust 84 knots Commissioner’s Point 10-minute mean winds Tropical Storm Force Winds Duration: ~12 hours  Max 10-minute winds at Airport:110° 40 GUSTS 52 KTS.  Total rainfall recorded August 21st/22nd:0.55 inches.

  10. Lessons from Bill • Hurricane Watch/Warning based on sea state as opposed to wind strength – BWS in-house discussion • Lack of Emergency Alert System – SMS text message alerts from cell phone provider took too long • Emphasis on the local conditions as opposed to the center of the Tropical System – need to de-emphasize “but it is far away!” • Grateful to US NOAA for the buoys to the SSE & West – request they be in service for upcoming 2010 Season • Causeway closures need to include a component of sea state • Wave & surge forecasting lacking – Bathymetry, buoy network, tide gauges needed

  11. Any Questions? Dr. Mark Guishard Director, Bermuda Weather Service 8 March 2010 Fairmont Hamilton Princess

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