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1. Issues in Scientific Explanations The phenomenon
What is "explained" by the theory?
What is the "contrast space"?
Is the theory itself tested/expanded, or used to describe some phenomenon?
What are the structural presuppositions?; what is given in the explanation?
Psychological processes the theory invokes to explain the phenomenon
What are the core social and/or psychological concept(s) or process?
What "level of explanation" is appropriate?
When does a different level of explanation alter the nature of the phenomenon?
Pragmatic criteria for explanation
necessary & sufficient cause;
articulation with accepted principles
2.
explanations
Descriptions of causal relations among the terms of the theory
What does "cause" mean? [ material, efficient, formal, final]
Mediators, moderators, interactions....
Measurement v. experimental v. intervention designs
Linear v. non-linear relation between cause and effect.
Prerequisites and/or boundary conditions around the causal model/theory
Presuppositions or untestable assumptions implicit in the theory or explanation
Boundaries on the phenomenon; groups, settings, time (moderators).
How much does the theory permit or encourage enlargement to incorporate additional explanatory concepts and/or a broader range of phenomenon:
Open v. closed system.
Comparison of theory with competing or alternative explanation
Mutually exclusive?
Complementary?
3. The main tasks [in my idiosyncratic view] 1. What is the phenomenon? What exactly will your research do?
Will it simply describe something? What?
Will it explain something?
Will it test an existing or new theory?
The adequacy of the theory itself?
A derivation of the theory?
The power of theory-based variables relative to variables derived from another theory?
Will it use a theory to explain some concrete events?
Will it use a theory to construct and test an intervention?
4. Some Key terms 2. Contrast space:
What is being compared to what -- what are we actually trying to explain?
At what level are we explaining it?
Products:
Direct effect and Mediator analyses
Explanatory theory of how the phenomenon works
How do alcohol & drugs increase sexual risk among gay men?
drugs v. other causes?
gay v. non gay?
sexual v. other risks
increase v. decrease?
5. Some Key terms 3. Boundary conditions:
What are the conditions under which this theory applies / this hypothesis is supported?
Under what conditions might the hypothesis be reversed?
McGuire:
Counterfactuals as hypothesis generators
No hypothesis is false
Products:
Moderator analysis
Explanatory theory of larger variables that control when the phenomenon occurs.
6. Explanatory frame: The object to be explained + the form of explanation. What does it mean to explain something?; What, exactly, is being explained?
Constant v. variable terms: what needs explaining?
Why is BSB so weird?
BSB is this way because the architect wanted a dramatic building to win awards
why are there weird buildings?
why is BSB one of them?
why this form of weirdness
Why did the rabbit get eaten by the fox?
Micro question (this rabbit by this fox); proximity to tree, degree of light, time of day; the rabbit was in the wrong place, the fox was hungry...
mid-macro question; fluctuation in relative fox/rabbit populations, explain current rabbit predation rate (or fox population!)
Macro question; co-evolution ? rabbit predation by foxes generally
Why do people take drugs?
...to be more happy, to be popular, etc. (All are K, but drug taking is not)
...why do people take crack cocaine? (Dont ask me why I smoke, ask me why I smoke Winstons...)
7. Explanatory frame (cont.); At what level are we explaining the phenomenon?
Are we explaining its occurrence?
how it works?
how to fix it?
When is a different level of explanation actually explaining a different phenomenon?
When are two explanations consistent with each other?
When are two explanations irrelevant to each other
Complimentary: wave & particle explanations of light
better than another?
actually explaining something different?
8. Explanatory frame (cont.); How do we know what causes something?
Material causes:
Efficient cause:
Formal cause:
Final cause:
How do we decide if something is really the cause?
9. Causality; the case of the biting dog I kicked the dog and he bit me. Why?
Simple covariate:
Every time I kick a mean looking 4-legged animal I get bit.
Material (reductionism):
Dogs are equipped with teeth and a defensive biting reflex.
Functional or efficient:
I kicked him hard enough to get him mad at me; the kick directly caused the bite.
Formal or structural:
The dog and I have a really sick relationship where I keep kicking him and he keeps biting me.
Dogs have evolved over millennia to protect their territory, and I aggressively invaded his.
Final:
Dogs bite to mold human behavior (make us not kick).
10. What caused the Challenger space shuttle to crash? Highly vulnerable tile design
Falling foam from the booster
Damaged insulation tiles
Hot plasma in the wheel well
Loss of control of the vehicle at reentry
Habituation to tile falling (and other anomalies) & loss of recognition of debris as a problem
Poor communication between engineers and management
Poor decisions under powerful political pressure to show success for expensive manned space program
11. Causality: the Challenger space shuttle crash
12. 10% of the U.S. population is depressed. Why? Simple covariate / descriptive (e.g., epidemiology):
Lower socio-economic status women and upper class youth get depressed.
Material:
Serotonin depletion or high re-uptake rates underlie depression.
Genetic / brain -based negative affectivity.
Functional or efficient:
After adverse events or stress people tend to get depressed.
Negative thoughts make people depressed.
Depression occurs when a variant on the 5-HTT gene gets switched on by stress.
Formal or structural:
Depression reflects the mismatch between human evolution and the evolution of our physical / technological / economic environment.
[Depression] is the expression of a persons social class position.
Final:
The purpose of (transient) depression is to help us transition from one stable array of reinforcers to another.
13. Explanatory relativity and contrast spaces: Dog bites man When I kicked the dog he bit me. Why?
14. Explanatory relativity: What are we explaining? What is the contrast space? Why do people get depressed [instead of calm, affectless, violent
]
Material & structural theories of brain function, affect and social learning.
Functional / efficient theories of social structure / resources, stress and coping.
Why / how do these people [instead of others
] get depressed?
Descriptive / covariance epidemiological questions.
Functional / efficient individual difference theories of cognitive vulnerability, social support
Structural theories: experience and genetic expression, temperament.
When / where / how does depression occur [instead of then]?
More structural developmental or gender-based theories.
Functional theories: within-person differences in psychosocial variables.
Specification of possible boundary conditions.
Why is she not depressed now [whereas others still are]?
Application of functional or structural theories to developing and testing interventions.
15. Some random terms Explanatory frame: The object to be explained + the form of explanation.
Structural presuppositions.
Nature versus nurture; what % of major depression is (alcoholism, smoking
) genetic?
Reductionism and Reducability
When is a reductionist explanation actually addressing a different phenomenon?
What is love?
Merging of soul mates
Search for meaning and intimacy
Economic / reproductive contract
Displacement of arousal
Evolutionary response to similarity
Neuro-chemical trigger event
(
my love is chemical
)
16. Some useful (?) distinctions Three steps in convergent research; taking a phenomenon or empirical relation and developing or applying a theory to explain it, or testing the relative adequacy of diverse theories.
Find / specify a phenomenon; stressed people get sick a lot.
17. Convergent research, 2 Consider other theories that may explain the phenomenon or data pattern. (That may also lead to different levels of explanation).
What other mediating variable(s) (beside or in addition to immune function) may account for the effect of stress on illness?
What other psychosocial variables may lead to physical illness?
What (more exogenous) variables may control both your predictor and your mediator?
18. Convergent use of theory application: test diverse possible mediators
19. Convergent theory application: testing several possible theories
20. Conceptualizing / testing a structural exogenous variable
21. Adding two levels of endogenous mediating variables to a structural exogenous variable
22. Convergent research. 3. Turn the relation on its head:
Under what conditions might stress ? health?
What moderators create boundary conditions to the theory or even reverse a common effect?
23. Divergent research Take an established theory and apply it to new and novel contexts.
Simple extension to new domains:
Does motivational enhancement work for non-problem behaviors?
Can cybernetic models of information behavior relations be applied to self-regulation of health?
Can a physical fatigue like model explain failure of self-regulation over time?
Shifts in levels of explanation;
Can genetic theories explain individual, contextual, or cultural differences on mood?
Can political events or socio-cultural based stress explain risky decision making?
24. McGuire; Types of theories Categorical
Clustering of phenomena
Types of social support (emotional, practical, etc.)
Affective clusters; NA
Clustering of people
Diagnostic categories
Personality; big 5, introversion extroversion
Process
Flow-chart like perspectives
Steps in persuasion
Stages of Change
Developmental theories
25.
types of theories Axiomatic
Write predictions from a highly plausible or tautological axiom
protection motivation theory
Axiomatic that people want protection from threat
Write predictions about
Origins of threat perception
Mediators of responses to threat
Health belief / Illness cognition models
Axiom: peoples thoughts / understanding of illness (or illness threat) ? key behaviors
Predictions:
Relevance of specific cues to action
Short v. long -term thoughts, etc.
Affective motivation (? analysis)
26.
types of theories Guiding Light or heuristic theories; larger model of man
Clear, top-down principles or axioms
Self-Efficacy / Learned helplessness
Cognitive-social information processing models
Basic learning theories
Deci; autonomous control as core motive
Sense of coherence;
Controllable,
coherent,
comprehensible
Reductionist / physiological (?)
Behavioral constraints of neuro-anatomy
Transmitter mediated models of depression, etc.
Theory itself not open to test, only to application or test of derivation
27. McGuire; Heuristics for developing hypotheses or empirical questions
28. II. Heuristics Involving Simple Conceptual Analysis (Direct Inference)
E. Simple Conversions of a Banal Proposition
10. Accounting for the contrary of a trite hypothesis
11. Reversing the plausible direction of causality
12. Pushing an obvious hypothesis to an implausible extreme
13. Imagining the effects of reducing a variable to zero
14. Conjecturing interaction variables that qualify a relation
F. Multiplying Insights by Conceptual Division
15. Linguistic explorations
16. Alternative manipulations of the independent variable
17. Dividing the dependent variable into subscales
18. Arranging output subcomponents into a sequence
G. Jolting Ones Conceptualizing Out of its Usual Ruts
19. Shifting attention to an opposite pole of the problem
20. Alternating preferred with non-preferred research styles
21. Expressing ones hypothesis in multiple modalities
22. Disrupting ordinary states of consciousness
30. IV. Heuristics Demanding Reinterpretations of Past Research
K. Delving into Single Past Studies
33. Accounting for irregularities in an obtained relation
34. Decomposing non-monotonic into simpler relations
35. Deviant-case analysis
36. Interpreting serendipitous interaction effects
L. Discovery by Integrating Multiple Past Studies
37. Reconciling conflicting outcomes or non-replications
38. Bringing together complementary past experiments
39. Reviewing and organizing current knowledge in an area
31. V. Heuristics Necessitating Collecting New or Reanalyzing Old Data
M. Qualitative Analyses
40. Allowing open-ended responses for content analysis
41. Participating actively in the research routine
42. Exploring a glamorous technique
43. Including low-cost interaction variables in the design
44. Pitting confounded factors against one another
45. Strategic planning of programmatic research
N. Quantitative Analyses
46. Multivariate fishing expeditions
47. Subtracting out the effect of a known mediator
48. Computer simulation
49. Mathematical modeling