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IHS Brief: Country Analysis, Country Risk & Sovereign Risk Tony Nash October 2012. Agenda. About IHS Country Intelligence Service General Methodology ANNEX: In-depth Methodologies Country Analysis and Forecasts Country Risk Sovereign Risk.
(Regulatory, Supply chain, Pricing and Cost)
Using our comprehensive analysis encompassing country intelligence, economic and financial data, industry analysis and security assessment, we help clients around the world:
Value Creation Path
We integrate our Country Intelligence services with an array of analysis, forecast and risk assessment products encompassing:
The World’s largest private repository of economic, financial, and industrydata
Continuously updated world, region, and country analysis, covering the risks and opportunities of doing business or investing in 200+ countries.
Anticipate future security threats and requirements
Coverage of 170+ industries around the world with in-depth analysis of 14 specific verticals.
Forecast Council: Senior level monthly review of our economic, industry and commodity forecasts
Our core analysis is done in-house, but we do consult on-the-ground experts to validate observations, assumptions, trends.
IHS’ economists, analysts and subject matter experts incorporate economic, political, industry and commodity expertise in our services. This is unique in the market.
Step 1: Pre-Forecast Meeting
One week prior to the start of the international macroeconomic forecast, IHS conducts a pre-forecast meeting to discuss key assumptions and issues, at global and regional levels. About 60 country and sectoral experts attend this meeting.
Step 3: Solve the Country Models
Once a new historical database has been created, we simulate models over history to produce equation residuals. We then study these historical residuals carefully to determine whether the corresponding forecast residuals require adjustment.
Step 4: Forecast Reviews
Senior staff members review the preliminary forecast at the world, regional aggregate, and country levels for internal consistency and to review the big picture it paints.
Step 5: Solve the World Model
The forecasts from the country models are fed into the Global Scenario Model to prepare baseline forecast.
Once the forecasts are completed, forecast databases and spreadsheets are created, and the analysts describe the forecast and it assumptions in the Quarterly Economic Outlook analysis.
The Forecast Process
Every country is given a risk rating of between 1 and 5 for each of the six factors.
1.0 indicates minimum risk and 5.0 maximum risk.