1 / 25

Model Intercomparisons and Validation: Terrestrial Carbon, an Arctic Emphasis

Model Intercomparisons and Validation: Terrestrial Carbon, an Arctic Emphasis. Andrew Slater. Carbon Model Intercomparisons. EDMI – offline C4MIP – C-Model and parent Atmosphere C-LAMP – C-Model and CAM (CCSM Atmo) IPCC AR5 – The next big thing …. Ecosystem Dynamics Model Intercomp.

nhung
Download Presentation

Model Intercomparisons and Validation: Terrestrial Carbon, an Arctic Emphasis

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript


  1. Model Intercomparisons and Validation: Terrestrial Carbon, an Arctic Emphasis Andrew Slater

  2. Carbon Model Intercomparisons • EDMI – offline • C4MIP – C-Model and parent Atmosphere • C-LAMP – C-Model and CAM (CCSM Atmo) • IPCC AR5 – The next big thing …..

  3. Ecosystem Dynamics Model Intercomp.

  4. C4MIP – Carbon Cycle & Climate Change • 11 Models (International effort) • Coupled Atmo-Ocean-Land + Carbon GCMs • Numerous carbon pools in models • Generally fixed Q10 values (global) • No nitrogen cycle included • Simulations with & without interactive CO2 • Later found that Nitrogen limitation would decrease carbon uptake

  5. C4MIP - Results • No consensus on total NPP response to Climate Change • ↑T + ↑CO2→ ? • Will the land be a sink or source? • Carbon uptake ability decreases • ↑T →↓CO2 uptake

  6. Carbon-Land Model Intercomparison Project • Couple 3 models to the CCSM atmosphere • CLM3-CASA’ • CLM3-CN • LSX-IBIS • Multi-criteria objective function • Aids model development & selection

  7. Carbon-Land Model Intercomparison Project

  8. C-LAMP Experiments • 1000yr Spin-up + 200yr Control • Experiment 1: Offline (Reanalysis driven) • 1.1 Spin up run • 1.2 Control run (1798–2004) • 1.3 Climate varying run (1948–2004) • 1.4 Climate, CO2, and N deposition varying run (1798–2004) • 1.5 Climate, CO2, N deposition varying run with land use change (1798–2004) • Experiment 2: Coupled to CAM3 • 2.1 Spin up run • 2.2 Control run (1800–2004) • 2.3 Climate varying run (1800–2004) • 2.4 Climate, CO2, and N deposition varying run (1800–2004) • 2.5 Climate, CO2, and N deposition varying run with land use change (1800–2004)

  9. IPCC AR5 and Carbon • Concentration driven (a la AR4) • No carbon feedback • Emissions driven • Full carbon coupling • Radiation code does not see CO2 • Dynamic Vegetation coupling • Land Use & Land Cover Change

  10. Carbon Data – What, Where & When • Storage • Soil Carbon • Biomass Fixing • Flux Data: • FluxNet • Individual Investigators • CO2 & CH4

  11. Soil Carbon – Importance of Arctic Batjes, 1996

  12. Permafrost Organic Carbon Content New estimates of carbon in frozen soils (NH) Tarnocai et al 2009, GBC

  13. Carbon (& other) Data Issues: • All the usual problems • Metadata • Continuity & Completeness • Quality Control • Different formats • Numerous data centers • Access • Pro’s & Con’s of different data sets • Errors: Representativeness & Instrumental

  14. FluxNET

  15. IPY AON Projects: Full annual cycle?

  16. AON Towers: A tough environment! Imnaviat Cherskii Photos: EEuskirchen@UAF

  17. Arctic Specific Matters 1950 • Highest Q10 values are in the Arctic • Rapid change • Shrub encroachment already seen • Huge carbon stocks 2002

  18. 2008 2007 2006 2005 Current Carbon Emissions Trajectory of Global Fossil Fuel Emissions (Avgs.) 2000 1995 2005 2010 1990 Raupach et al 2007, PNAS; Global Carbon Project 2009

  19. THANKS

  20. Gridcell Landunit Glacier Wetland Vegetated Lake Urban Columns Soil Type 1 PFTs Community Land Model subgrid tiling structure Resolution For IPCC AR5 2o and 0.5o working towards 0.1o

  21. Gridcell Landunit Glacier Wetland Vegetated Lake Urban Columns Soil Type 1 PFTs Vegetation change (prescribed or prognostic)

  22. Mean Annual Temperature (2CO2) One Grid Cell In Canada Additional Temperature Change With Vegetation Bonan et al. (2003) Global Change Biology 9:1543-1566 Bonan & Levis, unpublished Dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM)

  23. Nitrogen cycle Internal (fast) External (slow) denitrification N deposition assimilation Soil Mineral N N fixation mineralization N leaching Carbon and Nitrogen cycling (CLM-CN) Carbon cycle Atm CO2 photosynthesis Plant respiration litterfall & mortality Litter / CWD 3 C and 3 N litter pools decomposition Soil Organic Matter 3 C and 3 N soil pools Based on Biome-BGC, Thornton et al., 2009

More Related