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Economic Efficiency Analysis of Natural Gas Conversion: 1994 Study

This project aims to analyze the economic feasibility of converting to natural gas in various market segments for heating purposes. The study includes Monte Carlo simulation and market potential analysis. Deliverables include reports and presentations.

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Economic Efficiency Analysis of Natural Gas Conversion: 1994 Study

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  1. Analysis of the Direct Use of Natural Gas Statement of Work

  2. Background: 1994 Study • Goal: Analyze the economic efficiency of converting to gas Method • Looked at 5 market segments • Conversion of electric water heat to gas where gas is already used for space heating • Conversion of an electric forced-air furnace and electric water heat to gas where only a gas service connection is required • Conversion of an electric forced-air furnace and electric water heat to gas where both a gas main extension and gas service connection are required • Conversion of electric zonal space heat and electric water heat to gas where only a gas service connection is required • Conversion of electric zonal space heat and electric water heat to gas where both a gas main extension and a gas service connection are required • Monte Carlo Analysis

  3. Background: 1994 Study Methodology

  4. Background: 1994 Study Results

  5. Project Goals • Repeat the 1994 Study with current information • Add Multifamily and New Construction • Create the supply curve inputs to the Council’s portfolio model for the direct use of gas as a resource

  6. Project Overview: Market Segments

  7. Project Overview: Tasks • Economic Analysis – Monte Carlo simulation • Gather and analyze new data for inputs • Output Distributions: • NPV of cost • Electric energy savings • mills/kWh • Analyze Cost-effective portions of each market segment • Market Potential Analysis • Gather and analyze data on gas conversions, fuel choice in new homes, and outside influences on both • Inputs for Portfolio Model • Report & Presentation

  8. Deliverables & Timeline • 3 months • Council Portfolio Model Inputs • Draft Report • Presentation to RTF • 5 months • Final Report

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