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Update on Direct Use of Natural Gas Analysis

Update on Direct Use of Natural Gas Analysis. November 2, 2010. Progress Since September. Created data base of all possible existing electric and natural gas space conditioning and water heating system combinations 5 space conditioning system types

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Update on Direct Use of Natural Gas Analysis

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  1. Update on Direct Use of Natural Gas Analysis November 2, 2010

  2. Progress Since September • Created data base of all possible existing electric and natural gas space conditioning and water heating system combinations • 5 space conditioning system types • 5 water heating system types (two tank sizes) • 2 dwelling types (SF & MF) • 2 foundation types for SF (basement/non-basement • 3 levels of gas access (existing, extension from street & main and street extension) • 95 Combinations

  3. Input Data Base for Resource Portfolio Model • 95 - “existing conditions” • Number of existing regional households assigned to each “existing condition” using PNRES92 and American Community Survey data • 1470 - possible combinations of “existing conditions” and “replacement/conversion conditions.” Each of 1470 combinations assigned • Cost (capital, O&M, gas access) • Energy use by peak and off peak period • Regional technical “conversion potential” calculated for based on space heating system market shares from PNRES92 and fuel shares from American Community Survey (2009) • Preparing data for use in Regional Portfolio Model

  4. Summary of Completed Analysis 33 of the 95 “market segments” account for 95% of the regional electric “switching” potential 34 of the 95 “market segments” account for 95% of the regional gas “switching” potential 3 of the 95 possible “market segments” have no “units” Latest version of DUG inputs available for review at: http://www.nwcouncil.org/dropbox/RevisedDUG_HVACDWH_CostUseData_103010.zip

  5. Next Steps Convert capital and operation and maintenance cost to real levelized cost for use in Regional Portfolio Model (RPM) Run RPM Create cross-walk between DUG measures and conservation supply curves to remove pontential for double counting (i.e., if fuel conversion occurs, use of HVAC efficiency upgrades is no longer an “alternative”

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