The Chesapeake Bay Program’s Decision Support Tools - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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  1. The Chesapeake Bay Program’s Decision Support Tools Gary Shenk 5/21/2013

  2. Chesapeake Bay Partnership Models

  3. CBP Modeling Tools CAST Interaction Tools Decision Models/ Databases NEIEN Bay WQSTM Related Tools sparrow

  4. 2010 2020 2030 Anne Arundel County Prince George’s County

  5. Estuarine Model • 57,000 cells • sub-hour hydrodynamics • CH3D • CEQUAL-ICM

  6. Living Resources Outputs SAV Oysters Menhaden

  7. Estuarine Model Decision variables Dissolved Oxygen Clarity Submerged Aquatic Vegetation Chlorophyll concentrations

  8. Role of the Bay Partnership Models In Decision-Making Annual, monthly or daily values of anthropogenic factors: Land use acres BMP implementation Fertilizer Application Rates Manure Application Rates Maximum Uptake Vegetative Cover AFO-CAFO and Septic Loads

  9. How the Watershed Model Works Hourly or daily values of Meteorological factors: Precipitation Temperature Evapotranspiration Wind Solar Radiation Dew point Cloud Cover Calibration Mode Annual, monthly, or daily values of anthropogenic factors: Land Use Acreage BMPs Fertilizer Manure Tillage Crop types Atmospheric deposition Waste water treatment Septic loads Daily flow, nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment compared to observations over 21 years HSPF

  10. Each segment consists of 30 separately-modeled land uses: Regulated Pervious Urban Regulated Impervious Urban Unregulated Pervious Urban Unregulated Impervious Urban Construction Extractive Combined Sewer System Wooded / Open Disturbed Forest Corn/Soy/Wheat rotation (high till) Corn/Soy/Wheat rotation (low till) Other Row Crops Alfalfa Nursery Pasture Degraded Riparian Pasture Afo / Cafo Fertilized Hay Unfertilized Hay Nutrient management versions of the above How the Watershed Model Works Plus: Point Source and Septic Loads, and Atmospheric Deposition Loads Each calibrated to nutrient and Sediment targets 11

  11. How the Watershed Model Works Fertilizer Manure Atmospheric deposition Precipitation } Management filter Runoff Hydrology submodel Sediment submodel River Phosphorus submodel hourly Buffers wetlands Nitrogen submodel

  12. Phase 5 land segmentation • Most counties are completely within a hydrogeomorphic region • BMP and Crop data are not known on a finer scale in most cases • Near the limit of computing capacity

  13. Phase 5 RiverSegmentation • Greater than 100 cfs • or • Has a flow gage • Near the limit of meaningful data • Consistent criterion

  14. How the Watershed Model Works Hourly or daily values of Meteorological factors: Precipitation Temperature Evapotranspiration Wind Solar Radiation Dew point Cloud Cover Scenario Mode Snapshot of anthropogenic factors: Land Use Acreage BMPs Fertilizer Manure Tillage Crop types Atmospheric deposition Waste water treatment Septic loads Flow-normalized loads HSPF

  15. Nitrogen Loads to the Chesapeake Bay 2012 Estimated Source: CBP Phase 5.3.2 Watershed Model data and simulation for 2012 assessment including jurisdictional supplied inputs

  16. Nutrient Impacts on Bay WQ

  17. Scenario Builder Manure storage practice Livestock BMPs BMPs Crops Fertilizer Pasture BMPs BMPs Image Credits https://utextension.tennessee.edu/lincoln/4-H/Pages/Livestock-Skillathons-%28Beef,-Sheep-and-Swine%29.aspx Rebelwoodsranch.com Seaburst.com http://pubs.ext.vt.edu/442/442-308/442-308.html

  18. Scenario Builder

  19. Scenario Builder • Input processor for the Watershed Model • Generates past, present or future state of watershed conditions • Specific WSM Inputs from Scenario Builder: • Management practices • Land use acres • Manure and chemical fertilizer application rates • Crop growth • Septic loads

  20. Spatial Scale County scale source data and calculations. To output at a finer scale, Scenario Builder uses an area-weighted average.

  21. Scenario Builder Ag Data Output • BMPs • Acres • Pounds nitrogen, phosphorus and sediment reduced • Manure application (nutrient species/month) • Fertilizer application (month) • Legumes (pounds ammonium) • Maximum Crop uptake (monthly nutrients) • Vegetative cover • Sediment generated by plowing • Land use acreage

  22. Scenario Builder Breakout 1 Breakout 2 Breakout 3 Ag Census Crops Land Use Land Change Model Conservation Practices BMPs Ag Census Crops Regional Crop data Vegetative cover Max uptake Plowing Effects Crop Need Leguminous Fixation Ag Census Animals Regional management data Manure application Fertilizer application