Thinking Critically with Psychological Science

1. Thinking Critically with Psychological Science Chapter 1

2. Hindsight bias • “Knew it all along phenomenon” • Paul Slovic & Baruch Fischoff • The tendency to believe, after learning the outcome, that one would have foreseen it.

3. Overconfidence • Thinking that we know more than we do • More confident than correct • WREAT=WATER • ETRYN=ENTRY

4. Point to Remember… • Hindsight bias and overconfidence often lead us to overestimate our intuition. Through scientific inquirerywe can sift through what is reality and what is illusion.

5. Scientific Attitude • Requires one to ask two questions: • 1.)What do you mean? • 2.) How do you know? • Requires humility • May have to reject your own ideas • Being skeptical but not cynical, open but not gullible • Use critical thinking • Examines assumptions, discerns hidden values, evaluates evidence, and assess conclusions

6. Case Study • One individual (or small group) studied over an extended period of time in depth • Sometimes over generalizes • Must answer questions with other methods

7. Survey • Looking at many cases in less depth • Wording effects can give you different results • “aide to the needy” vs. “welfare” • “free and reduced lunch” vs. “economically disadvantaged” • Questionnaire or interview • Random sampling • A sample that fairly represents a population because each member has an equal chance to be included.

8. Naturalistic Observation • Observing and recoding behavior in naturally occurring situations without trying to manipulate and control the situation. • Behaviors may be overlooked or if the one being observed notices that they are being watched, behaviors may change

9. Point to Remember.. • A case study, survey, or naturalistic observation does not explain behaviors, it just describes it!

10. Correlation • One trait or behavior accompanies another • One predicts the other • Scatterplots • Positive • Negative (one score goes up and the other goes down) • No Relationship

11. Illusory Correlations • A perceived nonexistent correlation between two things • Help explain superstitious beliefs • Being outside in the cold and wet causes oneto get sick (not true)

12. Causation • One variable may or may not lead to an outcome • Low self-esteem could cause Depression • Depression could cause low self-esteem

13. Point to Remember… • Correlation indicates the possibility of a cause and effect relationship but it does not prove causation.

14. Double-Blind Procedure • Both the researchers and participants do not know if they have received the actual treatment of the placebo • Reduce bias behaviors

15. Placebo Effect • Placebo: Latin meaning “I shall please” • Just believing you are receiving treatment can cause your mind to boost your spirits, relax your body, or relieve your symptoms • Pill with no medical ingredients

16. Experimental Condition vs. Control Condition • Experimental: • Exposed to the treatment • Control: • Without the treatment • Used as the comparison

17. Independent vs. Dependent Variables • Independent: • The factor that is manipulated • Variable whose effect is being studied • Breast milk(experimental)/ Formula (control) • Dependent: • Outcome factor • The one that is being changes due to the manipulations of the independent variable • Intelligence score

18. Describing Data • Mean • average • Median • middle • Mode • Most frequently occurring • Range • Difference between high and low • Standard Deviation • Determines if scores are packed together or dispersed

19. Statistical Significance • When sample averages are reliable and the difference between them is relatively large • The difference we observe is probably not due to chance variation between the samples