Research Methods: Thinking Critically with Psychological Science

1. Research Methods: Thinking Critically with Psychological Science

2. The Need for Psychology Science

3. Do Now • Fact or Falsehood • Before attempting the quiz, predict how many you will get correct. • Complete Handouts 2-2 / 2-5

4. The Need for Psychological Science Intuition & Common Sense Many people believe that intuition and common sense are enough to bring forth answers regarding human nature. A bullet is fired from a gun across an open field. A bullet is dropped from a person’s hand. Which hits the ground first? Intuition and common sense may aid queries, but they are not free of error.

5. Errors of Common Sense & Limits of Intuition Try this! Fold a piece of paper (0.1 mm thick) 100 times. How thick will it be? 800,000,000,000,000 times the distance between the sun and the earth. Personal interviewers may rely too much on their “gut feelings” when meeting with job applicants.

6. Did We Know It All Along? Hindsight Bias • Hindsight Bias • “I knew it all along” • “Out of sight, out of mind” • “Absence makes the heart grow fonder” • Examples: • Jurors told to ignore information by the judge • Vick is obviously a better quarterback than Kolb • Handout 2-2

7. Overconfidence Sometimes we think we know more than we actually know. • Overconfidence, together with hindsight bias, can lead to overestimate our intuition • Do Now Quiz • Handout 2-3 Anagram How long do you think it would take to unscramble these anagrams? WREAT WATER ETYRN ENTRY People said it would take about 10 seconds, yet on average they took about 3 minutes (Goranson 1978). GRABE BARGE

8. Psychological Science • How can we differentiate between uniformed opinions and examined conclusions? • The science of psychology helps make these examined conclusions, which leads to our understanding of how people feel, think, and actas they do!

9. The Scientific Attitude • Three main components: • Curiosity (passion for exploration) • Skepticism(doubting and questioning competing ideas) • Open-Minded Humility(ability to accept responsibility when wrong).

10. Critical Thinking • Critical Thinking • “Smart thinking” • does not accept arguments and conclusions blindly. • Four elements: • Examines assumptions • Discerns hidden values • Evaluates evidence • Assesses conclusions

11. How Do Psychologists Ask and Answer Questions?

12. The Scientific Method A Theory isan explanation that integrates principles and organizes and predicts behavior or events. Good theories explain by: • Organizing and linking observed facts • Implying hypotheses that offer testable predictions and sometimes practical applications For example, low self-esteem contributes to depression.

13. The Scientific Method In Psychology, a Hypothesis is not an “educated guess” or “testable question.” A Hypothesis is a testable prediction, often prompted by a theory, to enable us to accept, reject or revise the theory. A statement of relationship among variables. i.e. People with low self-esteem are apt to feel more depressed.

14. The Scientific Method Research Observations Research would require us to administer tests of self-esteem and depression. Individuals who score low on a self-esteem test and high on a depression test would confirm our hypothesis.

15. The Scientific Method

16. The Scientific Method

17. The Scientific Method

18. The Scientific Method

19. Making Research Scientific • Must be Replicable - Why? • Must be Falsifiable - Hypothesis stated in such a way that it can be rejected (Loch Ness Monster example) • Must be Precise - Use of Operational Definitions • Must be Parsimonious - Apply simplest explanation to set of observations (i.e. falling asleep in math class)

20. Purposes of Psychological Research • To find ways to measure and describe behavior • To understand why, when and how events occur • To apply this knowledge to solving real world problems

21. Describing Psychological Research • General Terms used: • Variables: the events, characteristics, behaviors, or conditions that researchers measure & study • Subject (or participant): an individual or animal a researcher studies • Sample: collection of subjects researchers study (bc cannot study entire population) • Population: collection of people or animals from which researchers draw a sample • Study sample & generalize to population

22. Operational Definitions • Statement of procedures (operations) used to define research variables • Defines what the researcher will be observing and manipulating • Ex. – human intelligence operationally defined as what an intelligence test measures • Operational Definitions MUST be: • Measurable • Manageable

23. Operational Definitions • With a partner, attempt to operationally define the following: • Happiness • A Smile • Popularity • Good Music

24. Description Case Study A technique in which one person is studied in depth to reveal underlying behavioral principles.

25. Case Study Advantages Disadvantages Can give incomplete or unrepresentative info Sometimes only relies on self-report data can be misleading Can be subjective Usually only 1 investigator may lead to biased results Cannot be used to test theories or treatments Does NOT explain behavior NO Cause & Effect • Good way to generate hypotheses • Can be a source of insight and ideas (Freud, Piaget, etc.) • Suggest further study • Can provide data other methods cannot • Rare phenomena – damage to specific brain areas • Provide illustrative anecdotes • Concrete examples of concepts & principles

26. Survey How long is the Mississippi River?What is the population of Argentina? Form A Form B Form A Form B A technique for ascertaining the self-reported attitudes, opinions or behaviors of people usually done by questioning a representative, random sample of people. Handout 2-5 & Discuss examples Effects of: Wording Range of Responses Order

27. Survey President Obama is a good president. Yes or No? Estimate the % of people in class that you think agree with you False Consensus Effect A tendency to overestimate the extent to which others share our beliefs and behaviors.

28. Survey Random Sampling If each member of a population has an equal chance of inclusion into a sample, it is called a random sample (unbiased). If the survey sample is biased, its results are not valid. Representative Sample (Generalizability) In class Sample – m/f? hair color? Coin Flip • Table of Random #s • Potential Problems in Polls? The fastest way to know about the marble color ratio is to blindly transfer a few into a smaller jar and count them.

29. Survey Advantages Disadvantages Relies on Self-Report Data Can be misleading Saying vs. Doing – behavior can’t be observed directly Low Response Rate? Can be Subjective May lead to Bias Wording? Sample? Does NOT explain behavior NO Cause & Effect conclusions • Provides a good way to generate hypotheses • Can provide info about many people at once • Cheap & relatively easy

30. Naturalistic Observation • observing and recording behavior in naturally occurring situations without trying to manipulate and control the situation (no interference) • Animals in Wild • Self-seating patterns in lunch room

31. Naturalistic Observation Advantages Disadvantages Sometimes biased results May be difficult to do unobtrusively Does NOT explain behavior NO Cause & Effect conclusions Does not control for all factors that may influence behavior • Can be useful in generating hypotheses • Provides info about behavior in natural environment Homework – Think of a question related to psychology (behavior & mental processes) that you want to know the answer to. Examples: What makes people happy? Do people’s personalities change over their life?

32. Correlation

33. Correlation • Discuss each of the following actual correlations with a partner and attempt to explain them: • Those who often ate Frosted Flakes as children had half the cancer rate of those who never ate the cereal. • Those who often ate Oatmeal as children were 4 times more likely to develop cancer. • A police chief finds that as ice cream consumption increases, the crime rate increases. As ice cream consumption decreases, so does the crime rate. • a measure of the extent to which two factors vary together, and thus of how well either factor predicts the other. • Does NOT mean Causation • How is information obtained • Surveys, Quasi-experiments • Examples • GPA related to Test Scores? • People w/ store credit cards spend more on clothes? • Variables that can’t be manipulated • i.e. gender, age, height, weight • More likely to be used in correlational research

34. Correlation • Ice Cream Causes Polio?

35. Correlation • Correlation Coefficient • How well does A predict B (or B predict A) • Questions to Ask: • Is it positive or negative?(+ / – ) • NOT good or bad – Negative ≠ Weak • What is the strength? (-1.0 to +1.0) • 0 = no relationship • Scatterplot

36. Correlation

37. Correlation

38. Correlation

39. Correlation

40. Correlation

41. Positive Correlation

42. Positive Correlation Obesity Rate As Variable A goes up (or down) : Variable B also goes up (or down) Work in same direction # of Hours Watching TV per Day

43. Negative or Inverse Correlation

44. Negative Correlation Grade Point Avg Years in Jail As Variable A goes up: Variable B goes Down (work in opposite directions) Years of Education Alcoholic Drinks Per Week

45. Correlation Correlation Coefficient = +.62 http://www.stat.tamu.edu/~west/applets/rplot.html

46. CorrelationCorrelation and Causation • Correlation helps predict • Does not imply cause and effect • Quick Quiz Time

47. CorrelationQuiz Time 1) Which of the following correlation coefficients presents the strongest relationship? A) +.02 B) –.67 C) +.55 D) –.14 2) Which of the following correlation coefficients presents the weakest relationship? • A) +.02 • B) –.67 • C) +.55 • D) –.14

48. Quiz Time For each of the following, indicate whether it is a positive or negative correlation. 3) The more young people watch TV, the less they read. 4) The more sexual content teens see on TV, the more likely they are to have sex. 5) The longer children are breast-fed, the greater their later academic achievement. 6) The more often adolescents eat breakfast, the lower their body mass. Negative Positive Positive Negative

49. CorrelationDirectionality • Correlation Coefficients • Do not indicate directionality, just the existence of relationship • A to B or B to A • Examples • It rains when people have their umbrellas up. • Cities with the most police have the highest crime rates. • Routine Physicals in past 3 years • 2x as likely to report high blood pressure & cholesterol • TV & Childhood Obesity • Degree of obesity rises 2% for every hour of TV watched