Spatially explicit burn probability across a landscape in extreme fire weather year
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Spatially Explicit Burn Probability across A Landscape in Extreme Fire Weather Year. Wenbin Cui, David L. Martell Faculty of Forestry, University of Toronto. Outline . Burn Probability (BP) Model. BP Model Application Predict BP in an Extreme Fire Weather Year. Discussions

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Spatially explicit burn probability across a landscape in extreme fire weather year l.jpg

Spatially Explicit Burn Probability across A Landscape in Extreme Fire Weather Year

Wenbin Cui, David L. Martell

Faculty of Forestry,

University of Toronto


Outline l.jpg
Outline Extreme Fire Weather Year

  • Burn Probability (BP) Model

  • BP Model Application

    • Predict BP in an Extreme Fire Weather Year

  • Discussions

    • Possible Applications, Limitations & Future Research


Burn probability of next fire season l.jpg
Burn Probability of Next Fire Season Extreme Fire Weather Year


Burn probability calculation l.jpg
Burn Probability Calculation Extreme Fire Weather Year

  • Forest Burn Probability of next fire season at location(i,j)

    • BPxy: Burn probability at location (x,y)

    • N: number of years(iterations)

    • Nxy: number of times of having been burned at

      location(i,j)


Main factors affecting bp l.jpg

Fire Spread Extreme Fire Weather Year

Main Factors affecting BP

Fuel Type

Weather

Topography

(elevation, slopes & slope aspects)

Fire Occurrence

Level of Protection


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SPATIAL Extreme Fire Weather Year

Burn Probability Model

Fuel Type

Fire Occurrence

Burn Probability

Level of Protection

Fire Spread

Daily Weather


Fuel type classification l.jpg
Fuel Type Classification Extreme Fire Weather Year

  • The Canadian Forest Fire Behavior Prediction (FBP) System is used


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Burn Probability Model Extreme Fire Weather Year

Fuel Type

Fire Occurrence

Fire Occurrence

Burn Probability

Level of Protection

Fire Spread

Weather


Fire occurrence l.jpg
Fire Occurrence Extreme Fire Weather Year

  • That total number of fires will occur each year follows a Poisson distribution with an average number equal to historical average number of fires in this landscape.

  • The conditions that cause past ignition pattern will continue in the next fire season

  • affected by the fuel at the location and the weather condition at the time of ignition.

  • Ignition Patterns differ by cause


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Fire ignition patterns (density) Extreme Fire Weather Year

  • People-caused and Lightning-caused density maps


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Burn Probability Model Extreme Fire Weather Year

Fuel Type

Fire Occurrence

Burn Probability

Level of Protection

Level of Protection

Fire Spread

Weather


Level of protection l.jpg
Level of Protection Extreme Fire Weather Year

  • Percent of forest fires controlled at initial attack (IA)

  • If a fire is controlled, it only “burns” one cell of the landscape. Otherwise it escapes IA and we used a fire growth model to “spread” it.

  • Escape Index: (EI)

    • HFI is the Head Fire Intensity (kW/m)

    • RT is response time (hours)


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3 hours Extreme Fire Weather Year

2 hours

Spatially Different Response Time to Forest Fires

4 hours

10 hours


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Burn Probability Model Extreme Fire Weather Year

Fuel Type

Fire Occurrence

Burn Probability

Level of Protection

Fire Spread

Weather


Fire spread l.jpg
Fire Spread Extreme Fire Weather Year

  • The escaped fires are simulated by using Wildfire program.

  • Wildfire is a fire growth model that incorporates GIS data, FBP System calculations and weather data to estimate patterns of hourly fire perimeters. (Todd 1999)


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Burn Probability Model Extreme Fire Weather Year

Fuel Type

Fire Occurrence

Burn Probability

Level of Protection

Fire Spread

Weather

Weather


Weather l.jpg
Weather Extreme Fire Weather Year

  • Daily historical weather data

  • Each record includes:

    • Temperature, Relative Humidity, Wind speed, wind direction, rain fall, FFMC, DMC, DC, BUI, ISI

  • Data from more than one station can be used.


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BP Maps Extreme Fire Weather Year

Burn Fractions

Fire Information

Other

Output of the Model

BP

Model


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Application of BP Model in an Extreme Fire Weather Year Extreme Fire Weather Year

  • Study area

  • Application of the Model


Location of romeo malette forest rmf l.jpg
Location of Extreme Fire Weather YearRomeo Malette Forest (RMF)


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FBP Fuel Types Extreme Fire Weather Year

2,028,224 ha


Fire history l.jpg
Fire History Extreme Fire Weather Year

  • From 1976 to 1999 there are 909 fires.

  • The average is 37.875/year.

  • The average area burned a year is 1136.15 ha.


Historical ignition patterns l.jpg
Historical Ignition Patterns Extreme Fire Weather Year


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Annual Burn Probability Extreme Fire Weather Year

0.0567%


Burn probability in an extreme weather year l.jpg
Burn Probability in an Extreme Weather Year Extreme Fire Weather Year

  • What is an EXTREME Fire Weather Year?

    • The year that has most ESCAPED fires

    • Burned more area

  • 1991

    • Average Number -75 (real number)

    • Daily Weather

    • LOP - 90.7% (Uniform response time)



Burn fractions by fuel type l.jpg
Burn Fractions by Fuel Type Extreme Fire Weather Year


Slide28 l.jpg

Response time Extreme Fire Weather Year

(LOP)

Fuel

Management

FireSmart

Harvest

Assessment &

Decision

FireSmart

Roads

Fuel

Ignition

People-caused

ignition control

Applications of Burn Probability Model

BP Model


Used in other models l.jpg
Used in other models Extreme Fire Weather Year

  • Forest Management Models (FireSmart)

    • Burn Probability by Stands

    • Burn Fractions by species, stand

  • WUI Fire Management

  • Wildlife Habitat Suitability Assessment


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Limitations and Future Work Extreme Fire Weather Year

  • Spotting is not included in fire spread - Prometheus with spotting capability will be used in future

  • Use of Regional Climate Model

  • Produce more BP maps!


Slide31 l.jpg

Acknowledgement Extreme Fire Weather Year

Jennifer Johnson, Mike B. Wotton, Ana C. Espinoza,

Mariam Sanchez G,Justin Podur and Jennifer Beverly

Faculty of Forestry, University of Toronto

Kelvin Hirsch, Victor Kafka, Marc-André Parisien, Bernie Todd

Canadian Forest Service, Northern Forestry Center

Jim Caputo, Robert McAlpine

Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources

Tembec

Sustainable Forest Management Network


Thanks l.jpg
Thanks ! Extreme Fire Weather Year

Comments & Questions?


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