Peak Oil. Models to help understand peak oil Dr. Robert J. Brecha University of Dayton. Chautauqua Course, May 22-24, 2006. Some Basics. +Alaska. Lower 48. US Energy Information Agency: http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/pet_frame.html. US. Indonesia. UK. Iran?. Venezuela.
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Models to help understand peak oil
Dr. Robert J. Brecha
University of Dayton
Chautauqua Course, May 22-24, 2006
US Energy Information Agency: http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/pet_frame.html
VenezuelaMany Countries Have Peaked!
Energy Information Agency, posted March 2005, January 1, 1980 - January 1, 2005 Estimates
= kQ(1 – Q/Q∞)
Hubbert’s Logistic Curve
“Economic” argument: We will always
find more and increase ultimate recovered amount
At early stages, curves for widely
differing total amounts may
look very similar.
There are too many free
P = kQ(1 – Q/Q∞)
Bentley, Global Oil and Gas Depletion – an Overview, Energy Policy30 (2002)
R.C. Duncan and W. Youngquist,“Encircling the Peak of World Oil Production,”
Natural Resources Research 8, 219-233 (1999). Also by the same authors: “The World
Petroleum Life-Cycle” http://www.dieoff.com/page133.pdf
R.C. Duncan and W. Youngquist, “The World Petroleum Life-Cycle”
Matthew Simmons – “Twilight in the Desert”
OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, August 2005