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# Peak Oil - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Peak Oil. Models to help understand peak oil Dr. Robert J. Brecha University of Dayton. Chautauqua Course, May 22-24, 2006. Some Basics. +Alaska. Lower 48. US Energy Information Agency: http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/pet_frame.html. US. Indonesia. UK. Iran?. Venezuela.

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### Peak Oil

Models to help understand peak oil

Dr. Robert J. Brecha

University of Dayton

Chautauqua Course, May 22-24, 2006

Lower 48

US Energy Information Agency: http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/pet_frame.html

Indonesia

UK

Iran?

Venezuela

Many Countries Have Peaked!

http://www.bp.com/genericsection.do?categoryId=92&contentId=7005893

Energy Information Agency, posted March 2005, January 1, 1980 - January 1, 2005 Estimates

= kQ(1 – Q/Q∞)

dt

Hubbert’s Logistic Curve

“Economic” argument: We will always

find more and increase ultimate recovered amount

1980 Prediction

At early stages, curves for widely

differing total amounts may

look very similar.

There are too many free

fitting parameters

P = kQ(1 – Q/Q∞)

Q (Gbbl)

http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/1/11/6047/13568

http://graphoilogy.blogspot.com/

US Geological Survey Estimates

Bentley, Global Oil and Gas Depletion – an Overview, Energy Policy30 (2002)

• USGS published reserve estimates in 1998

• EIA uses those estimates, along with consumption patterns to predict future growth

• A gap between predicted demand and predicted production appears by 2025

• Gap is to be filled with a) Saudi Arabia producing >20 MMbbl/day, and b) “unidentified unconventional” sources

R.C. Duncan and W. Youngquist,“Encircling the Peak of World Oil Production,”

Natural Resources Research 8, 219-233 (1999). Also by the same authors: “The World

Petroleum Life-Cycle” http://www.dieoff.com/page133.pdf

R.C. Duncan and W. Youngquist, “The World Petroleum Life-Cycle”

http://www.dieoff.com/page133.pdf

Matthew Simmons – “Twilight in the Desert”

USGS

BP

http://www.theoildrum.com

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, August 2005