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Peak Oil. Models to help understand peak oil Dr. Robert J. Brecha University of Dayton. Chautauqua Course, May 22-24, 2006. Some Basics. +Alaska. Lower 48. US Energy Information Agency: US. Indonesia. UK. Iran?. Venezuela.

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Peak oil

Peak Oil

Models to help understand peak oil

Dr. Robert J. Brecha

University of Dayton

Chautauqua Course, May 22-24, 2006

Some basics
Some Basics


Lower 48

US Energy Information Agency:

Many countries have peaked






Many Countries Have Peaked!

Opec proved crude oil reserves
OPEC Proved Crude Oil Reserves

Energy Information Agency, posted March 2005, January 1, 1980 - January 1, 2005 Estimates


= kQ(1 – Q/Q∞)


Hubbert’s Logistic Curve

“Economic” argument: We will always

find more and increase ultimate recovered amount

1980 Prediction

Problem with logistic curves
Problem with Logistic Curves

At early stages, curves for widely

differing total amounts may

look very similar.

There are too many free

fitting parameters

Hubbert linearization
Hubbert Linearization

P = kQ(1 – Q/Q∞)

Q (Gbbl)

Hl texas
HL - Texas

Us geological survey estimates

US Geological Survey Estimates

Bentley, Global Oil and Gas Depletion – an Overview, Energy Policy30 (2002)

Rough outline of the future
Rough Outline of the Future

  • USGS published reserve estimates in 1998

  • EIA uses those estimates, along with consumption patterns to predict future growth

  • A gap between predicted demand and predicted production appears by 2025

  • Gap is to be filled with a) Saudi Arabia producing >20 MMbbl/day, and b) “unidentified unconventional” sources

One prediction 1998
One Prediction (1998)

R.C. Duncan and W. Youngquist,“Encircling the Peak of World Oil Production,”

Natural Resources Research 8, 219-233 (1999). Also by the same authors: “The World

Petroleum Life-Cycle”

Finding norways
Finding Norways

R.C. Duncan and W. Youngquist, “The World Petroleum Life-Cycle”

2/3 !

Matthew Simmons – “Twilight in the Desert”

Peak models
Peak Models



Keep Watching…

Peak good oil
Peak “Good” Oil

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, August 2005