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Satellite Analysis Branch 2008 Year in Review

Satellite Analysis Branch 2008 Year in Review. Michael Turk (SAB) NOAA Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference March 2009. Milestones. Dec 2007 – SSD Management affirms findings of ATET—ADT unsuitable replacement for SAB subjective estimates

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Satellite Analysis Branch 2008 Year in Review

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  1. Satellite Analysis Branch 2008 Year in Review Michael Turk (SAB) NOAA Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference March 2009

  2. Milestones • Dec 2007 – SSD Management affirms findings of ATET—ADT unsuitable replacement for SAB subjective estimates • Dec 2007 – Bulletin format changed to reflect that of JTWC and CPHC • Summer 2008 – SAB disseminates near RT microwave (MW) fixes as experimental product • Fall 2008 – SAB incorporates MW fixes in text bulletins for Eastern and Southern Hemispheres • Jan 2009 – SAB offers MW analysis on case-by-case basis to JTWC, TCWCs and RSMCs by request • Feb 2009 – SAB provides Dvorak and MW fixes in ATCF format pending testing at TPC

  3. Milestones: Microwave Fixeshttp://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/2008/midata/archive.html

  4. Sample MW History File

  5. Milestones: New Bulletin Format WWPN20 KNES 160945 A. 25W (HAISHEN) B. 16/0857Z C. 27.5N D. 153.5E E. THREE/MTSAT F. T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSU/SSMIS/WINDSAT H. REMARKS...CONVECTION MEASURES 4/10 RESULTING IN A DT OF 2.5. PT AGREES WHILE MET IS 3.0. FT BASED ON MET...ADT CI OF 2.9 AND 0739Z WINDSAT IMAGE DEPICTING A PARTIAL EYEWALL. ~TURK I. ADDL POSITIONS 16/0324Z 26.9N 151.3E AMSU 16/0654Z 27.4N 152.4E SSMIS 16/0739Z 27.5N 153.2E WINDSAT

  6. Hanna (08L): “A plague o’ both your houses...” • Both subjective and objective techniques performed poorly • Cloud pattern did not correlate well with pressures measured by recon • “...at times Hanna has resembled a subtropical cyclone.” TPC discussion 04/03Z ADT: T1.9; SAB: T2.5; Recon: T3.9

  7. Product System Development & Implementation (PSDI) Program • Global Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability Product • AMSU-Based Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Structure Estimation from Aqua and MetOp • GOES-Based Multi-Platform Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Product • Operational Implementation of an Ensemble Tropical Rainfall Technique (eTRaP) • Operational Implementation of the CIMSS Advanced Dvorak Technique

  8. Update on CIRA GOES-PSDI Project Extension5.2bFY03Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability (TCFP) Product Collection of developmental datasets needed to expand current product to global domain has begun • Satellite water vapor imagery for Indian • Ocean & S. Hemisphere collected from • Meteosat 5 & 7 (centered at 63 E) Nov 2005 – present • Meteosat 9 (centered at 0 E): • June 2007 – present Starting collection and quality control of best tracks for Indian Ocean and Southern Hemisphere Global GFS analyses already archived at CIRA back to 1982

  9. Update on CIRA POES-PSDI Project( Request FY99-38) FY08AMSU-Based Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Structure Estimation from Aqua and MetOp Retrieval codes for Aqua and MetOp AMSUs were obtained from SMCD Operational code has been modified to incorporate retrieval subroutines. The operational scripts are being modified by CIRA with coordination with NCO and TPC. Once completed the BUFR scripts will be modified by NCO Operational code will be finalized and tested once the operational data stream is finalized.

  10. Multiplatform Surface Wind • Project recently funded; will enjoy 24/7 support in 2 yrs: • May 2008: Development Phase Underway • May 2009: Pre-Operational Phase • June 2010: Operational Phase Begins

  11. ≥50 mm ≥100 mm ≥150 mm ≥200 mm Deterministic and Probabilistic e-TRaPs for Rita landfall Experimental Production in Spring 2009

  12. ADT Entering New Developmental Phase: Incorporation of MW Signal

  13. Ike (09L): ADT Unable to Resolve Small Eye • Small eye barely discernible in conventional and microwave imagery • ADT used CDO cloud scene, resulting in falling T-numbers and underestimates in intensity

  14. ADT Position Estimates

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